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Model 1.2

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Le Havre W v Lens W

Le Havre W
0–0Full time
Lens W

Feminine Division 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Stade Océane

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Le Havre W 0–0 Lens W LE HAVRE W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Le Havre W win48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.904

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Le Havre W win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Le Havre W was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Le Havre W v Lens W
  4. 45′Le Havre W have had 10 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 38–36–26
  5. 45′13 shots for Le Havre W, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 38–36–26
  6. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Le Havre W win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Le Havre W 0–0 Lens W
  8. 47′SECOND HALF Le Havre W 0–0 Lens W
  9. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Célestine Boisard · Le Havre W
  10. 51′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–39–25
  11. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Le Havre W win 37%)
  12. 55′We expected about 3.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–42–24
  13. 56′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
  14. 59′Le Havre W have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–45–22
  15. 61′A red card for Le Havre W on 59′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 31–47–22
  16. 61′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Célestine Boisard · Le Havre W
  17. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Le Havre W · On: Maël Doré · Off: Ikram Adjabi
  18. 65′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
  19. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Le Havre W win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  20. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Le Havre W · On: Naolia Traoré · Off: Jade Nassi
  21. 72′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
  22. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Le Havre W · On: Melina Mendy · Off: Thaïs Gallais
  23. 77′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
  24. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Le Havre W win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  25. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Maxime Di Liberto · Le Havre W
  26. 82′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–78–9
  27. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Maxime Di Liberto · Le Havre W
  28. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lens W · On: Ananée Yeboah · Off: Celia Agoune
  29. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lens W · On: Lylloo Makowski · Off: N. Gelders
  30. 85′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
  31. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Le Havre W · On: Talila Seika · Off: Maïté Boucly
  32. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Le Havre W win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  33. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lens W · On: Sofia Djoubri · Off: L. Notel
  34. 92′We said Le Havre W at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–3
  35. FTFULL TIME Le Havre W 0–0 Lens W
  36. FTLe Havre W 0–0 Lens W · Le Havre W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Le Havre W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Le Havre W 48%, draw 23%, Lens W 29%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Le Havre W v Lens WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Le Havre W win48%
Draw23%
Lens W win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueStade Océane

Line-ups

Le Havre W

4-2-3-1

Lens W

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Le Havre W

Lens W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Feminine Division 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Feminine Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Le Havre W5−57
11Lens W5−81

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Le Havre W

4-2-3-1

16 M. Petiteau

10 J. Coquet

5 Shadia Nankya

28 C. Boisard

14 Kédie Johnson

27 E. Lefevre

6 S. Champagnac

23 J. Nassi

9 I. Adjabi

15 Maïté Boucly

18 Thaïs Gallais

Coach · M. Di Liberto

Substitutes

22 · T. Seika

30 · T. Beitz

95 · Naolia Traoré

34 · Sana N'Diaye

11 · Mélinda Mendy

12 · Maël Dore

40 · Gloria Dorla

Lens W

3-4-3

16 Elisa Launay

3 Jennyfer Limage

19 L. Notel

21 Laureen Oillic

23 F. Rossi

26 Carla Polito

29 M. Duporge

22 E. Smaali

7 L. Archier

10 N. Gelders

9 Celia Agoune

Coach · Sarah M'Barek

Substitutes

4 · C. Devant

8 · S. Djoubri

34 · L. Makowski

1 · L. Marchal

25 · Léna Mouzon

6 · A. Yeboah

Our number · le havre w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
48% The market–
Us48%

We make Le Havre W a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Le Havre W v Lens W1.76 – 1.31
Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L2 · W0 D1 L4
Table places · points 7 v 16 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Le Havre W win48%––
Draw23%––
Lens W win29%––
Over 2.5 goals59%––
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals80%––
Over 3.5 goals37%––
Le Havre W or draw71%––
Le Havre W clean sheet28%––
Lens W clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 5.0 6.3 4.1 1 8.3 10.5 6.8 3.1 2 7.2 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 4.2 5.3 3.4 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Le Havre W down, Lens W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsLEH 0–1 LEN · LEN 2–1 LEH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Feminine Division 1 this season · since 5 Sept

LE HAVRE W

LWLWD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–8 · 2–0 · 1–1

LENS W

LLDLL0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lyon W5+2815
2Paris Saint Germain W6+415
3Paris FC W5+512
4Marseille W5+29
5Strasbourg W5−17
6Le Havre W5−57
7Montpellier W6+26
8Nantes W5−15
9FC Fleury 91 W5−65
10Saint-Malo W5−63
11Lens W5−81
12Toulouse W5−141

The competition's standings before kick-off.