PK-35 v SJK Akatemia prediction · Ykkösliiga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

PK-35 3–2 SJK Akatemia PK-35 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PK-35 win~~59%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.251

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.087

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PK-35 win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: PK-35 was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF PK-35 v SJK Akatemia
8′PK-35 score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–5
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' PK-35 1–0 SJK Akatemia
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
9′We published PK-35 at 59%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–5
26′SUBSTITUTION · 24' PK-35 · On: L. Lokake · Off: J. Nakanishi
29′SJK Akatemia find the net on 29′. 1–1. 1–1 · 51–31–18
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' PK-35 1–1 SJK Akatemia
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
40′We said PK-35 at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–36–17
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' SJK Akatemia
45′A goal for PK-35 on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–14–3
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' PK-35 2–1 SJK Akatemia
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME PK-35 2–1 SJK Akatemia
46′E. Pitkala scores for PK-35 on 44′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
46′We published PK-35 at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–14–3
46′SECOND HALF PK-35 2–1 SJK Akatemia
47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–14–3
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PK-35 · On: J. Costa · Off: J. Tapani
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SJK Akatemia · On: O. Raiski · Off: Cauet Werner
55′We published PK-35 at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
62′PK-35 score on 62′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' PK-35 3–1 SJK Akatemia
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 98% now
63′We published PK-35 at 59%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
64′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–1–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SJK Akatemia · On: A. Muchipay · Off: H. Silagailis
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SJK Akatemia · On: E. Salmivuori · Off: E. Lehto
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
68′SJK Akatemia find the net on 68′. 3–2. 3–2 · 87–11–1
68′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 87–11–1
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' PK-35 3–2 SJK Akatemia
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 87% now
70′SJK Akatemia pull one back on 67′ through L. Huttunen. 3–2. 3–2 · 88–11–1
74′We published PK-35 at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–10–1
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' PK-35 · On: I. Sadik · Off: M. Tolonen
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' PK-35 · On: T. Andberg · Off: P. Diniz
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' PK-35 win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME PK-35 3–2 SJK Akatemia
FTPK-35 3–2 SJK Akatemia · PK-35 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PK-35 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PK-35 59%, draw 23%, SJK Akatemia 18%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on PK-35 v SJK AkatemiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

PK-35 win59%

Draw23%

SJK Akatemia win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueMarkku.fi Areena

Line-ups

PK-35

SJK Akatemia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PK-35

SJK Akatemia

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Ykkösliiga

Last match: 11 Oct · Ykkösliiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	PK-35	26	+20	49
10	SJK Akatemia	26	−23	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

PK-35

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Ramula

2 R. Sipi

3 A. Forsstrom

6 J. Nakanishi

7 P. Diniz

15 J. Tapani

18 E. Pitkala

19 M. Tolonen

21 K. Rasanen

23 S. Uchiyama

27 A. Ahmed-Nur

Coach · Tiago Santos

Substitutes

25 · A. Kivela

4 · A. Abdi

8 · J. Costa

9 · I. Sadik

10 · O. Salmensuu

14 · E. Kawakita

22 · L. Lokake

24 · N. Ndaziramiye

34 · T. Andberg

SJK Akatemia

Formation not confirmed

32 L. Huttunen

2 T. Mustonen

5 E. Lehto

8 A. Machaal

9 H. Silagailis

10 I. Berjali

14 Cauet Werner

19 A. C. Achi

24 A. Sairinen

28 D. Bulgakov

39 E. Nzoko

Coach · Paulo Lopes

Substitutes

25 · N. Hasselman

3 · O. Raiski

7 · A. Muchipay

15 · E. Salmivuori

27 · J. Nikkila

29 · N. Rantasalmi

36 · I. Kangasniemi

41 · F. Augustus Junqueira Bernardes

Our number · pk-35 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

59% The market76%

Us59%

~~Market~~76%

We make PK-35 a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PK-35 v SJK Akatemia~~1.77 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Ykkösliiga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 49 v 17~~2 v 10

~~The market · PK-35 win~~76% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PK-35 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PK-35 win	59%	76%	−17
Draw	23%	15%	+8
SJK Akatemia win	18%	9%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	48%	66%	−18
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	84%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	27%	46%	−19
PK-35 or draw	82%	91%	−9
PK-35 clean sheet	44%	–	–
SJK Akatemia clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 7.7 6.2 2.7 1 13.0 10.8 4.5 2 11.4 9.3 3.9 3 6.8 5.5 2.3 4 3.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PK-35 down, SJK Akatemia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 404 Ykkösliiga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ykkösliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 130 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PK-35 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). SJK Akatemia away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for PK-35, 0.84 for SJK Akatemia. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SJK 0–3 PK · SJK 0–1 PK · SJK 3–1 PK · SJK 1–2 PK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ykkösliiga this season · since 29 Aug

PK-35

WDWLDL3–0 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–3

SJK AKATEMIA

LLDLDW2–6 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kooteepee	26	+22	58
2	PK-35	26	+20	49
3	Haka	26	+21	47
4	JIPPO	26	+15	44
5	JäPS	26	−17	35
6	MP	26	−8	30
7	EIF	26	−15	29
8	Klubi-04	26	0	26
9	KäPa	26	−15	25
10	SJK Akatemia	26	−23	17