MP v JäPS prediction · Ykkösliiga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

MP 1–2 JäPS MP WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said MP win~~41%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.692

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said MP win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: MP 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–33
1′KICK-OFF MP v JäPS
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' MP
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was MP win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME MP 0–0 JäPS
45′SECOND HALF MP 0–0 JäPS
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' MP win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
55′A goal for JäPS on 54′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
55′We said MP at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' MP 0–1 JäPS
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' MP win: 41% at kick-off, 7% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' JäPS win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' MP · On: A. Tervaniemi · Off: M. Al Sheikh
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' MP · On: S. Wilson · Off: J. Uronen
61′We said MP at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–51–22
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' MP 1–1 JäPS
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' MP win: 41% at kick-off, 26% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was JäPS win 22%)
62′MP score on 62′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–52–22
62′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 26–52–22
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' MP · On: N. Krivetz · Off: V. Laiho
65′We said MP at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' MP win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' JäPS · On: I. Soderlund · Off: V. Ahola
73′We said MP at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
76′We said MP at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–2 · 2–15–84
76′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–84
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' MP 1–2 JäPS
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' MP win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' JäPS win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 15%)
77′JäPS find the net on 77′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–85
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' JäPS · On: J. Virtanen · Off: H. Kuosa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' MP · On: P. Kerminen · Off: E. Ylonen Corrected
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' MP win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MP · On: M. Snellman · Off: M. Koivuniemi
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' MP · On: P. Kerminen · Off: S. Stenius
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' JäPS · On: J. Aalto · Off: A. Ristola
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' MP
FTFULL TIME MP 1–2 JäPS
FTMP 1–2 JäPS · MP win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MP are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MP 41%, draw 26%, JäPS 33%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on MP v JäPSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

MP win41%

Draw26%

JäPS win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueMikkelin Urheilupuisto

Line-ups

MP

JäPS

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MP

JäPS

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Ykkösliiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	JäPS	26	−17	35
6	MP	26	−8	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

MP

Formation not confirmed

22 J. Uronen

4 V. Laiho

6 T. Afshari

7 A. Chishima

8 M. Koivuniemi

9 M. Al Sheikh

10 E. Ylonen

15 S. Stenius

19 V. Janhunen

44 N. Forsell

97 A. Traore

Coach · Graciano Ozeias

Substitutes

1 · S. Wilson

30 · T. Heikkinen

14 · M. Snellman

16 · S. Obioha

17 · S. Seppanen

18 · N. Krivetz

26 · A. Kuek

28 · A. Tervaniemi

99 · P. Kerminen

JäPS

Formation not confirmed

36 T. Valtonen

3 P. Haikonen

4 J. Nikki

9 A. Ristola

10 V. Ahola

13 A. Sainio

14 R. Selander

17 V. Ketonen

19 H. Kuosa

21 C. Katashira

41 J. Salo

Coach · Teemu Kankkunen

Substitutes

1 · N. Voutilainen

18 · J. Virtanen

27 · I. Soderlund

30 · J. Aalto

Our number · mp winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market48%

Us41%

~~Market~~48%

We make MP a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MP v JäPS~~1.39 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Ykkösliiga this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 35~~6 v 5

~~The market · MP win~~48% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · MP win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MP win	41%	48%	−7
Draw	26%	25%	+1
JäPS win	33%	27%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	60%	−12
Both teams to score	52%	61%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	73%	80%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	39%	−13
MP or draw	67%	73%	−6
MP clean sheet	30%	–	–
JäPS clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.9 9.0 5.5 2.2 1 10.3 12.3 7.4 3.0 2 7.2 8.4 5.1 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MP down, JäPS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 404 Ykkösliiga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ykkösliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 130 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MP at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). JäPS away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for MP, 1.21 for JäPS. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAP 1–0 MP · JAP 0–2 MP · MP 1–1 JAP · JAP 4–0 MP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ykkösliiga this season · since 28 Aug

MP

LWDWDD0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

JÄPS

DWLWLL0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kooteepee	26	+22	58
2	PK-35	26	+20	49
3	Haka	26	+21	47
4	JIPPO	26	+15	44
5	JäPS	26	−17	35
6	MP	26	−8	30
7	EIF	26	−15	29
8	Klubi-04	26	0	26
9	KäPa	26	−15	25
10	SJK Akatemia	26	−23	17