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KäPa v MP

KäPa

1–1Full time

Ykkösliiga · FRI 9 OCT · Markku.fi Areena

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

KäPa 1–1 MP KÄPA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said KäPa win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.882

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KäPa win at 40%.
73′🟨 YELLOW · 58' O. Heinonen · KäPa
73′🟨 YELLOW · 63' S. Puputti · KäPa
73′🟨 YELLOW · 69' A. Ring · MP
73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' KäPa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' KäPa · On: V. Jokiranta · Off: O. Heinonen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' KäPa · On: R. Huhtamaki · Off: S. Puputti
73′SECOND HALF KäPa 1–1 MP
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' MP · On: S. Stenius · Off: S. Obioha
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' KäPa · On: E. Ahola · Off: H. Toivonen
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' MP · On: M. Koivuniemi · Off: A. Tervaniemi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' KäPa · On: J. Salmi · Off: N. Leinonen
FTFULL TIME KäPa 1–1 MP
FTKäPa 1–1 MP · KäPa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

KäPa win40%

Draw23%

MP win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Markku.fi Areena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

KäPa

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Collin

2 U. Huhtamaki

3 S. Puputti

4 P. Hietalahti

7 N. Leinonen

10 Y. Lika

22 D. Ripatti

25 M. Kuningas

26 H. Toivonen

28 E. Lappalainen

37 O. Heinonen

Coach · Lari Lummepuro

Substitutes

8 · R. Huhtamaki

14 · E. Ahola

15 · A. Pastinen

17 · V. Jokiranta

29 · J. Salmi

35 · O. Brusiin

39 · S. Savini

MP

Formation not confirmed

4 V. Laiho

6 T. Afshari

7 A. Chishima

16 S. Obioha

22 J. Uronen

26 A. Kuek

28 A. Tervaniemi

42 A. Ring

44 N. Forsell

97 A. Traore

17 S. Seppanen

Coach · Graciano Ozeias

Substitutes

8 · M. Koivuniemi

9 · M. Al Sheikh

10 · E. Ylonen

14 · M. Snellman

15 · S. Stenius

18 · N. Krivetz

19 · V. Janhunen

99 · P. Kerminen

1 · S. Wilson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

KäPa

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Collin

2 U. Huhtamaki

3 S. Puputti

4 P. Hietalahti

7 N. Leinonen

10 Y. Lika

22 D. Ripatti

25 M. Kuningas

26 H. Toivonen

28 E. Lappalainen

37 O. Heinonen

Coach · Lari Lummepuro

Substitutes

8 · R. Huhtamaki

14 · E. Ahola

15 · A. Pastinen

17 · V. Jokiranta

29 · J. Salmi

35 · O. Brusiin

39 · S. Savini

MP

Formation not confirmed

4 V. Laiho

6 T. Afshari

7 A. Chishima

16 S. Obioha

22 J. Uronen

26 A. Kuek

28 A. Tervaniemi

42 A. Ring

44 N. Forsell

97 A. Traore

17 S. Seppanen

Coach · Graciano Ozeias

Substitutes

8 · M. Koivuniemi

9 · M. Al Sheikh

10 · E. Ylonen

14 · M. Snellman

15 · S. Stenius

18 · N. Krivetz

19 · V. Janhunen

99 · P. Kerminen

1 · S. Wilson

Our number · käpa winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make KäPa a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · käpa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KäPa win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
MP win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	65%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	67%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
KäPa or draw	64%	62%	+2
KäPa clean sheet	22%	–	–
MP clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.5 6.5 5.0 2.6 1 6.9 10.4 7.9 4.1 2 5.6 8.3 6.4 3.3 3 3.1 4.6 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KäPa down, MP across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 399 Ykkösliiga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ykkösliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 4.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KäPa at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). MP away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for KäPa, 1.54 for MP. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MP 2–1 KAP · MP 0–1 KAP · KAP 3–2 MP · MP 2–6 KAP

Form · last six in Ykkösliiga

KÄPA

LDDLWW1–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 3–2 · 3–2

LLWDWD3–4 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kooteepee	25	+23	58
2	PK-35	25	+23	49
3	Haka	25	+18	44
4	JIPPO	25	+11	41
5	JäPS	25	−13	35
6	EIF	25	−8	29
7	MP	25	−8	29
8	KäPa	25	−15	24
9	Klubi-04	25	−7	23
10	SJK Akatemia	25	−24	14