JIPPO v Haka prediction · Ykkösliiga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

JIPPO 2–1 Haka JIPPO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JIPPO win~~39%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JIPPO win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: JIPPO 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–33
1′KICK-OFF JIPPO v Haka
20′We said JIPPO at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–20–11
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' JIPPO 1–0 Haka
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' JIPPO win: 39% at kick-off, 68% now
22′JIPPO score on 21′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' JIPPO win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
25′We said JIPPO at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' JIPPO 2–0 Haka
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' JIPPO win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
26′We said JIPPO at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
26′JIPPO find the net on 26′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–3
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' JIPPO
45′SECOND HALF JIPPO 2–0 Haka
46′HALF-TIME JIPPO 2–0 Haka
49′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Haka · On: T. Lahdensuo · Off: A. Maenpaa
49′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Haka · On: M. Cisse · Off: T. Lehtinen
51′JIPPO ahead on 26′ through L. Sahimaa. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
51′We said JIPPO at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
54′We said JIPPO at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
58′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' JIPPO · On: J. Kiuru · Off: L. Forss Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' JIPPO · On: O. Keturi · Off: E. Kinnunen
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Haka
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Haka · On: E. Mattila · Off: K. Nurmi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Haka · On: C. Silas · Off: M. Mahlamaki
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' JIPPO win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
79′We said JIPPO at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' JIPPO 2–1 Haka
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' JIPPO win: 39% at kick-off, 88% now
80′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 89–10–1
80′A goal for Haka on 80′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 63' JIPPO · On: J. Kiuru · Off: E. Honkola
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' JIPPO · On: K. Mahugo · Off: L. Forss
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' JIPPO · On: T. Smith · Off: L. Sahimaa
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' JIPPO
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Haka
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' JIPPO
94′2–1 at the end. Our 39% on JIPPO comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' JIPPO win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Haka
FTFULL TIME JIPPO 2–1 Haka
FTJIPPO 2–1 Haka · JIPPO win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

JIPPO are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JIPPO 39%, draw 27%, Haka 34%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on JIPPO v HakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

JIPPO win39%

Draw27%

Haka win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup stage

Line-ups

JIPPO

Haka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JIPPO

Haka

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Ykkösliiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Haka	26	+21	47
4	JIPPO	26	+15	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

JIPPO

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Piirainen

4 Victor de Paula

9 M. Turunen

12 J. Lehtiranta

15 L. Sahimaa

18 E. Kinnunen

20 L. Forss

21 N. Tykkylainen

24 N. Haataja

28 E. Honkola

41 Y. Kikuchi

Coach · Mikko Hallikainen

Substitutes

22 · V. Vainikainen

2 · K. Mahugo

3 · V. Vesiaho

8 · T. Smith

10 · O. Keturi

11 · J. Kiuru

13 · L. Rasanen

90 · A. Tarvonen

Haka

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Lepola

3 N. Friberg

4 E. Auvinen

8 J. Karlsson

10 A. Maenpaa

13 M. Mahlamaki

21 K. Nurmi

23 T. Lehtinen

25 D. Enqvist

30 V. Purosalo

77 O. Whyte

Coach · Tommi Ekmark

Substitutes

1 · J. Ziprus

6 · C. Silas

7 · T. Lahdensuo

9 · T. Ali Abubakar

15 · M. Syrjalainen

18 · E. Mattila

20 · M. Cisse

27 · K. Tuikka

Our number · jippo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market30%

Us39%

~~Market~~30%

We make JIPPO a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JIPPO v Haka~~1.32 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Ykkösliiga this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 44 v 47~~4 v 3

~~The market · JIPPO win~~30% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · JIPPO win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 30% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JIPPO win	39%	30%	+9
Draw	27%	27%	0
Haka win	34%	44%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
JIPPO or draw	66%	56%	+10
JIPPO clean sheet	31%	–	–
Haka clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.6 9.7 5.8 2.3 1 10.7 12.6 7.4 3.0 2 7.1 8.2 4.8 3 3.1 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JIPPO down, Haka across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 404 Ykkösliiga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ykkösliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 130 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JIPPO at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Haka away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for JIPPO, 1.19 for Haka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HAK 3–0 JIP · HAK 2–1 JIP · JIP 0–2 HAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ykkösliiga this season · since 28 Aug

JIPPO

WLWLDW2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

HAKA

LLDWLW1–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kooteepee	26	+22	58
2	PK-35	26	+20	49
3	Haka	26	+21	47
4	JIPPO	26	+15	44
5	JäPS	26	−17	35
6	MP	26	−8	30
7	EIF	26	−15	29
8	Klubi-04	26	0	26
9	KäPa	26	−15	25
10	SJK Akatemia	26	−23	17