Home › Football › Ykkösliiga › JäPS v JIPPO

JäPS v JIPPO

JäPS

0–4Full time

JIPPO

Ykkösliiga · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

JäPS 0–4 JIPPO JIPPO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JIPPO win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.378

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JIPPO win at 48%.
71′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JäPS · On: I. Soderlund · Off: H. Kuosa
71′⚽ GOAL · 46' JäPS 0–4 JIPPO · E. Honkola
71′SUBSTITUTION · 60' JIPPO · On: O. Keturi · Off: E. Kinnunen
71′⚽ GOAL · 65' JäPS 0–4 JIPPO · Y. Kikuchi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' JIPPO · On: L. Forss · Off: E. Honkola
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' JIPPO · On: J. Kiuru · Off: N. Tykkylainen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' JäPS · On: A. Sainio · Off: J. Virtanen
71′SECOND HALF JäPS 0–4 JIPPO
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' JäPS · On: G. Taskos · Off: R. Selander
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' JäPS · On: J. Aalto · Off: H. Olander
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' JIPPO · On: K. Mahugo · Off: J. Lehtiranta
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' JIPPO · On: L. Rasanen · Off: Y. Kikuchi
84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' JIPPO
FTFULL TIME JäPS 0–4 JIPPO
FTJäPS 0–4 JIPPO · JIPPO win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

JäPS win25%

Draw27%

JIPPO win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

JäPS

Formation not confirmed

3 P. Haikonen

4 J. Nikki

9 A. Ristola

14 R. Selander

17 V. Ketonen

18 J. Virtanen

19 H. Kuosa

20 H. Olander

21 C. Katashira

36 T. Valtonen

41 J. Salo

Coach · Teemu Kankkunen

Substitutes

1 · N. Voutilainen

13 · A. Sainio

22 · G. Taskos

27 · I. Soderlund

32 · J. Aalto

JIPPO

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Piirainen

4 Victor de Paula

9 M. Turunen

12 J. Lehtiranta

15 L. Sahimaa

16 P. Forsman

18 E. Kinnunen

21 N. Tykkylainen

24 N. Haataja

28 E. Honkola

41 Y. Kikuchi

Coach · Mikko Hallikainen

Substitutes

3 · V. Vesiaho

8 · T. Smith

10 · O. Keturi

11 · J. Kiuru

13 · L. Rasanen

20 · L. Forss

22 · V. Vainikainen

90 · A. Tarvonen

2 · K. Mahugo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

JäPS

Formation not confirmed

3 P. Haikonen

4 J. Nikki

9 A. Ristola

14 R. Selander

17 V. Ketonen

18 J. Virtanen

19 H. Kuosa

20 H. Olander

21 C. Katashira

36 T. Valtonen

41 J. Salo

Coach · Teemu Kankkunen

Substitutes

1 · N. Voutilainen

13 · A. Sainio

22 · G. Taskos

27 · I. Soderlund

32 · J. Aalto

JIPPO

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Piirainen

4 Victor de Paula

9 M. Turunen

12 J. Lehtiranta

15 L. Sahimaa

16 P. Forsman

18 E. Kinnunen

21 N. Tykkylainen

24 N. Haataja

28 E. Honkola

41 Y. Kikuchi

Coach · Mikko Hallikainen

Substitutes

3 · V. Vesiaho

8 · T. Smith

10 · O. Keturi

11 · J. Kiuru

13 · L. Rasanen

20 · L. Forss

22 · V. Vainikainen

90 · A. Tarvonen

2 · K. Mahugo

Our number · jippo winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make JIPPO a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · jippo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JäPS win	25%	24%	+1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
JIPPO win	48%	50%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	54%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	67%	75%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	21%	31%	−10
JäPS or draw	52%	50%	+2
JäPS clean sheet	25%	–	–
JIPPO clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.1 13.6 9.5 4.5 1 9.0 12.4 8.6 4.1 2 4.2 5.8 4.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JäPS down, JIPPO across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 399 Ykkösliiga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ykkösliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.4% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JäPS at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). JIPPO away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for JäPS, 1.40 for JIPPO. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~JIP 1–0 JAP · JIP 0–0 JAP · JAP 1–1 JIP · JIP 1–1 JAP

Form · last six in Ykkösliiga

JÄPS

LDWLWL0–3 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

JIPPO

WWLWLD3–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kooteepee	25	+23	58
2	PK-35	25	+23	49
3	Haka	25	+18	44
4	JIPPO	25	+11	41
5	JäPS	25	−13	35
6	EIF	25	−8	29
7	MP	25	−8	29
8	KäPa	25	−15	24
9	Klubi-04	25	−7	23
10	SJK Akatemia	25	−24	14