Tampere United v Rops prediction · Ykkönen

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Tampere United 1–1 Rops TAMPERE UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tampere United win~~52%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.954

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tampere United win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tampere United 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
1′KICK-OFF Tampere United v Rops
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Rops
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Tampere United
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Rops
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Tampere United win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Tampere United 0–0 Rops
46′SECOND HALF Tampere United 0–0 Rops
48′A goal for Rops on 48′. 0–0 · 41–35–24
49′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–36–24
49′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–26–60
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Tampere United 0–1 Rops
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Tampere United win: 52% at kick-off, 15% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Rops win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Tampere United win 15%)
50′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Tampere United win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
56′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Tampere United · On: J. Georg · Off: O. Torniainen
57′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Tampere United · On: J. Heikkinen · Off: K. Huhta
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Rops
62′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
62′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Tampere United 1–1 Rops
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Tampere United win: 52% at kick-off, 34% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Rops win 21%)
63′Tampere United find the net on 63′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–46–21
63′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 33–46–21
69′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
74′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Tampere United win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rops · On: V. Katermaa · Off: B. Nijgh
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Tampere United win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Tampere United · On: J. Alapera · Off: T. Sovelius
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tampere United · On: J. Hallivuori · Off: L. Kesti
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Tampere United · On: K. Riihilahti · Off: J. Huhtala
90′1–1 at the end. Our 52% on Tampere United misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Rops
92′We said Tampere United at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Rops · On: A. Savolainen · Off: T. Varhi
92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Rops · On: T. Listo · Off: K. Isometsa
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Tampere United
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Tampere United
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Tampere United win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Tampere United 1–1 Rops
FTTampere United 1–1 Rops · Tampere United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tampere United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tampere United 52%, draw 22%, Rops 26%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Tampere United v RopsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tampere United win52%

Draw22%

Rops win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueKauppi 3 - Artificial grass

Line-ups

Tampere United

Rops

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tampere United

Rops

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ykkönen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tampere United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Immonen

6 N. Hasa

8 R. Lehtonen

9 J. Huhtala

10 T. Ozcelik

13 T. Sovelius

15 J. Rantala

17 L. Kesti

18 O. Torniainen

19 L. Bradbury

29 K. Huhta

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · S. Pakkanen

2 · J. Alapera

3 · J. Hallivuori

4 · A. Kovaqi

7 · J. Georg

16 · K. Riihilahti

21 · J. Enbuska

22 · R. Vaisanen

30 · J. Heikkinen

Rops

Formation not confirmed

30 D. Berry

4 J. Koistinen

8 K. Isometsa

9 O. Suutari

10 A. Mekki

11 T. Varhi

14 R. Cato

23 F. Heiserholt

34 B. Nijgh

35 V. Mantymaki

77 S. McLeod

Coach · Diogo Pinto

Substitutes

1 · T. Korhonen

7 · V. Vatanen

13 · T. Listo

20 · S. Roiha

22 · A. Savolainen

28 · V. Katermaa

29 · M. Korhonen

Our number · tampere united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market35%

Us52%

~~Market~~35%

We make Tampere United a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tampere United v Rops~~2.01 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 53 v 47~~1 v 2

~~The market · Tampere United win~~35% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tampere United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tampere United win	52%	35%	+17
Draw	22%	28%	−6
Rops win	26%	37%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Both teams to score	64%	69%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Tampere United or draw	74%	63%	+11
Tampere United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Rops clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.7 4.7 3.3 1 6.9 9.4 6.3 2.9 2 6.9 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.6 6.1 4.2 4 2.3 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tampere United down, Rops across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 969 Ykkönen matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ykkönen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tampere United at home: 3.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rops away: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Tampere United, 1.37 for Rops. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TAM 4–0 ROP · ROP 0–1 TAM · TAM 4–0 ROP · ROP 0–2 TAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 22 Aug

TAMPERE UNITED

WLWLWW4–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 4–6 · 4–0 · 1–0

ROPS

LWDLWW0–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 6–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampere United	26	+33	53
2	Rops	26	+20	47
3	SalPa	26	+11	45
4	VJS	26	+13	43
5	OLS	26	+12	41
6	FC jazz	26	+1	39
7	PKKU	26	+4	38
8	JJK	26	−3	31
9	TPV	26	−9	30
10	Inter Turku II	26	−9	29
11	KPV-j	26	−52	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	26	−21	15