SalPa v OLS

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SalPa win at 45%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: SalPa was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–22–33
3. 1′KICK-OFF SalPa v OLS
4. 12′SalPa find the net on 12′. 0–0 · 44–23–33
5. 13′We published SalPa at 45%. Our model now makes it 67%. 1–0 · 67–18–15
6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' SalPa 1–0 OLS
7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 67% now
8. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' SalPa
9. 25′SUBSTITUTION · 22' OLS · On: E. Eronen · Off: J. Eghenolohor
10. 27′A goal for OLS on 26′. 1–0 · 68–19–13
11. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' SalPa 1–1 OLS
12. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
13. 40′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 39–30–31
14. 45′HALF-TIME SalPa 1–2 OLS
15. 45′SECOND HALF SalPa 1–2 OLS
16. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SalPa · On: K. Yao · Off: T. Dementjeff
17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' OLS · On: O. Lamsa · Off: C. S. Thomas
18. 47′We said SalPa at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–23–63
19. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' SalPa 1–2 OLS
20. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 14% now
21. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' OLS win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was SalPa win 14%)
22. 48′OLS find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 13–23–63
23. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' OLS
24. 60′We said SalPa at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
25. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' OLS
26. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
27. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SalPa · On: O. Jakonen · Off: E. Rrustemi
28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' OLS · On: E. Merikanto · Off: K. Jatta Corrected
29. 73′We said SalPa at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
30. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' OLS · On: A. Korkala · Off: M. Babb Corrected
31. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' OLS
32. 78′A goal for SalPa on 78′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 19–65–16
33. 78′We said SalPa at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–65–16
34. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' SalPa 2–2 OLS
35. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
36. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was OLS win 16%)
37. 79′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 18–67–15
38. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' SalPa
39. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
40. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' OLS
41. 90′Full time, 3–2. We called SalPa at 45% — that one lands. 3–2 · 100–0–0
42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' SalPa · On: E. Rrustemi · Off: S. Kadowaki
43. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 54' J. Korhonen · OLS
44. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
45. 95′SalPa find the net on 90′. 2–2 · 2–96–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
46. 95′We published SalPa at 45%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
47. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 88' OLS · On: E. Merikanto · Off: E. Eronen
48. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' SalPa 3–2 OLS
49. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' SalPa win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
50. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' SalPa win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
51. FTFULL TIME SalPa 3–2 OLS
52. FTSalPa 3–2 OLS · SalPa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.