Home › Football › Ykkönen › Rops v JJK

Rops v JJK

Rops

6–1Full time

JJK

Ykkönen · SAT 10 OCT · Keskuskentta

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Rops 6–1 JJK ROPS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rops win~~56%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.292

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.121

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rops win at 56%.
2′Much as we predicted: Rops was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–20–24
2′KICK-OFF Rops v JJK
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Rops 1–0 JJK · V. Mantymaki
23′V. Mantymaki scores for Rops on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Rops win: 56% at kick-off, 76% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 34' Rops 1–0 JJK
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Rops 2–0 JJK · V. Mantymaki
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rops 2–0 JJK
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Rops 3–0 JJK · O. Suutari
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Rops 4–0 JJK
42′⚽ GOAL · 8' Rops 5–0 JJK · V. Mantymaki
42′⚽ GOAL · 34' Rops 5–0 JJK · A. Mekki
42′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rops 5–0 JJK · O. Suutari
42′⚽ GOAL · 39' Rops 5–0 JJK · O. Suutari
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Rops 5–0 JJK
45′42′ and it is 5–0: O. Suutari on the scoresheet for Rops. 5–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Rops 5–0 JJK
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Rops win: 56% at kick-off, 100% now
48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Rops 6–0 JJK · A. Mekki
48′SECOND HALF Rops 6–0 JJK
56′Rops ahead on 46′ through A. Mekki. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' JJK · On: P. U. Imonioro · Off: A. Jalasvaara
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Rops · On: V. Katermaa · Off: J. Koistinen
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Rops · On: A. Savolainen · Off: T. Varhi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' JJK · On: E. Sainila · Off: D. Wacklin
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Rops 6–1 JJK
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rops · On: T. Listo · Off: R. Cato
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rops · On: S. Roiha · Off: O. Suutari
FTFULL TIME Rops 6–1 JJK
FTRops 6–1 JJK · Rops win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rops win56%

Draw20%

JJK win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Keskuskentta

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rops

Formation not confirmed

2 A. Oinas

4 J. Koistinen

8 K. Isometsa

9 O. Suutari

10 A. Mekki

11 T. Varhi

14 R. Cato

23 F. Heiserholt

30 D. Berry

35 V. Mantymaki

77 S. McLeod

Coach · Jari Alamaki

Substitutes

1 · T. Korhonen

13 · T. Listo

20 · S. Roiha

22 · A. Savolainen

28 · V. Katermaa

JJK

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Vetri

3 B. Akdogan

8 T. Pahkala

9 A. Goljahanpoor

10 J. Dunyin

14 L. Suutarinen

19 N. Liimatainen

20 A. Jalasvaara

21 O. Schroderus

22 D. Wacklin

33 A. Tolra

Coach · Brian Page

Substitutes

11 · E. Sainila

17 · P. U. Imonioro

30 · A. Oikarinen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rops

Formation not confirmed

2 A. Oinas

4 J. Koistinen

8 K. Isometsa

9 O. Suutari

10 A. Mekki

11 T. Varhi

14 R. Cato

23 F. Heiserholt

30 D. Berry

35 V. Mantymaki

77 S. McLeod

Coach · Jari Alamaki

Substitutes

1 · T. Korhonen

13 · T. Listo

20 · S. Roiha

22 · A. Savolainen

28 · V. Katermaa

JJK

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Vetri

3 B. Akdogan

8 T. Pahkala

9 A. Goljahanpoor

10 J. Dunyin

14 L. Suutarinen

19 N. Liimatainen

20 A. Jalasvaara

21 O. Schroderus

22 D. Wacklin

33 A. Tolra

Coach · Brian Page

Substitutes

11 · E. Sainila

17 · P. U. Imonioro

30 · A. Oikarinen

Our number · rops winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

56% The market72%

Us56%

~~Market~~72%

We make Rops a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rops win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rops win	56%	72%	−16
Draw	20%	16%	+4
JJK win	24%	12%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	74%	76%	−3
Both teams to score	70%	65%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	90%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	54%	58%	−5
Rops or draw	76%	88%	−12
Rops clean sheet	22%	–	–
JJK clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.4 3.2 2.5 1 4.9 7.6 5.6 2.8 2 5.8 8.6 6.4 3.3 3 4.5 6.7 5.0 2.5 4 2.7 4.0 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rops down, JJK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Ykkönen matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ykkönen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rops at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). JJK away: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Rops, 1.52 for JJK. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ROP 4–0 JJK · JJK 3–3 ROP · ROP 1–2 JJK · JJK 5–0 ROP

Form · last six in Ykkönen

ROPS

DLWDLW3–3 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1

JJK

DDWLLL4–4 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampere United	25	+32	50
2	Rops	25	+15	44
3	SalPa	25	+7	42
4	OLS	25	+13	41
5	VJS	25	+12	40
6	FC jazz	25	+6	39
7	PKKU	25	+8	38
8	JJK	25	+2	31
9	TPV	25	−13	27
10	Inter Turku II	25	−14	26
11	KPV-j	25	−48	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	25	−20	15