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PKKU v SalPa

PKKU

0–4Full time

SalPa

Ykkönen · SAT 10 OCT · Kalevan Urheilupuisto

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

PKKU 0–4 SalPa PKKU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PKKU win~~47%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PKKU win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: PKKU 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–21–32
1′KICK-OFF PKKU v SalPa
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' PKKU 0–1 SalPa
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' SalPa
45′HALF-TIME PKKU 0–0 SalPa
47′SECOND HALF PKKU 0–0 SalPa
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' PKKU 0–1 SalPa · N. Jokiniemi
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' PKKU 0–2 SalPa
68′62′ and it is 0–2: J. Ndakala on the scoresheet for SalPa. 0–2 · 1–5–93
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' PKKU win: 47% at kick-off, 1% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' SalPa win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was PKKU win 1%)
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Y. Miyazaki · SalPa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' SalPa · On: O. Jakonen · Off: S. Seidu
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' PKKU · On: V. Azemi · Off: O. Minkkinen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' PKKU · On: A. Marjo · Off: A. Deng
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' PKKU 0–3 SalPa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PKKU · On: M. Ahmed · Off: O. Niemi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PKKU · On: N. Nenonen · Off: J. Norss
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' SalPa · On: J. Kostian · Off: O. Jakonen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' SalPa · On: E. Rrustemi · Off: J. Kauko
88′A goal for SalPa on 87′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' PKKU 0–4 SalPa
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SalPa · On: R. Ruponen · Off: Y. Miyazaki
89′⚽ GOAL · 87' PKKU 0–4 SalPa · R. Ruponen
FTFULL TIME PKKU 0–4 SalPa
FTPKKU 0–4 SalPa · PKKU win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

PKKU win47%

Draw21%

SalPa win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Kalevan Urheilupuisto

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

PKKU

Formation not confirmed

5 R. Makila

9 O. Minkkinen

15 A. Deng

16 J. Norss

17 S. Tiainen

19 N. Lokake

23 R. Kortelainen

25 O. Niemi

28 A. Barraza

30 S. Heikari

56 O. Tikkanen

Coach · Teemu Romppanen

Substitutes

6 · V. Azemi

7 · M. Ahmed

11 · N. Nenonen

13 · J. Sivunen

21 · A. Marjo

99 · V. Holopainen

SalPa

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Koski

3 J. Meura

4 T. Dementjeff

6 J. Ndakala

7 E. Rrustemi

18 J. Kauko

19 N. Jokiniemi

20 O. Jakonen

22 S. Kadowaki

24 Y. Miyazaki

28 S. Seidu

Coach · Ilkka Virtanen

Substitutes

5 · L. Pan

8 · O. Jakonen

9 · M. Lulli

11 · E. Rrustemi

12 · O. Rintamaki

13 · J. Kostian

15 · J. Heikkila

23 · R. Ruponen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PKKU

Formation not confirmed

5 R. Makila

9 O. Minkkinen

15 A. Deng

16 J. Norss

17 S. Tiainen

19 N. Lokake

23 R. Kortelainen

25 O. Niemi

28 A. Barraza

30 S. Heikari

56 O. Tikkanen

Coach · Teemu Romppanen

Substitutes

6 · V. Azemi

7 · M. Ahmed

11 · N. Nenonen

13 · J. Sivunen

21 · A. Marjo

99 · V. Holopainen

SalPa

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Koski

3 J. Meura

4 T. Dementjeff

6 J. Ndakala

7 E. Rrustemi

18 J. Kauko

19 N. Jokiniemi

20 O. Jakonen

22 S. Kadowaki

24 Y. Miyazaki

28 S. Seidu

Coach · Ilkka Virtanen

Substitutes

5 · L. Pan

8 · O. Jakonen

9 · M. Lulli

11 · E. Rrustemi

12 · O. Rintamaki

13 · J. Kostian

15 · J. Heikkila

23 · R. Ruponen

Our number · pkku winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

47% The market31%

Us47%

~~Market~~31%

We make PKKU a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pkku win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 33% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PKKU win	47%	31%	+16
Draw	21%	23%	−2
SalPa win	32%	47%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Both teams to score	70%	73%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	89%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
PKKU or draw	68%	53%	+15
PKKU clean sheet	19%	–	–
SalPa clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.6 3.9 3.4 1 4.9 8.3 6.8 3.8 2 5.1 8.3 6.9 3.9 3 3.5 5.7 4.7 2.7 4 3.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PKKU down, SalPa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Ykkönen matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ykkönen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PKKU at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). SalPa away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for PKKU, 1.68 for SalPa. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SAL 0–1 PKK · PKK 2–0 SAL

Form · last six in Ykkönen

PKKU

DDWLWL2–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–3

SALPA

LWWWWL0–2 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 4–3 · 6–4 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampere United	25	+32	50
2	Rops	25	+15	44
3	SalPa	25	+7	42
4	OLS	25	+13	41
5	VJS	25	+12	40
6	FC jazz	25	+6	39
7	PKKU	25	+8	38
8	JJK	25	+2	31
9	TPV	25	−13	27
10	Inter Turku II	25	−14	26
11	KPV-j	25	−48	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	25	−20	15