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OLS v Tampere United

OLS

0–1Full time

Tampere United

Ykkönen · SAT 10 OCT · OTC Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

OLS 0–1 Tampere United OLS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said OLS win~~47%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.754

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said OLS win at 47%.
0′Little has changed for our model: OLS 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–22–30
0′KICK-OFF OLS v Tampere United
36′⚽ GOAL · 37' OLS 0–0 Tampere United
41′Tampere United find the net on 37′. 0–0. 0–0 · 40–33–28
45′HALF-TIME OLS 0–0 Tampere United
45′SECOND HALF OLS 0–0 Tampere United
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tampere United · On: N. Hasa · Off: J. Enbuska
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tampere United · On: J. Heikkinen · Off: L. Kesti
61′⚽ GOAL · 62' OLS 0–1 Tampere United
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' OLS · On: C. S. Thomas · Off: J. Eghenolohor
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' OLS · On: E. Merikanto · Off: O. Lamsa
67′Tampere United ahead on 62′ through J. Huhtala. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–22–72
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' OLS win: 47% at kick-off, 6% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Tampere United win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was OLS win 6%)
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' OLS · On: J. Omotayo · Off: L. Teppo
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' OLS · On: K. Jatta · Off: A. Aapajarvi
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tampere United · On: R. Vaisanen · Off: J. Huhtala
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tampere United · On: R. Lehtonen · Off: J. Laitinen
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tampere United · On: J. Malinen · Off: K. Huhta
86′🟨 YELLOW · 50' J. Eghenolohor · OLS
86′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tampere United · On: N. Hasa · Off: J. Enbuska
86′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Tampere United · On: J. Heikkinen · Off: L. Kesti
86′⚽ GOAL · 62' OLS 0–1 Tampere United · J. Huhtala
86′SUBSTITUTION · 62' OLS · On: C. S. Thomas · Off: J. Eghenolohor
86′SUBSTITUTION · 62' OLS · On: E. Merikanto · Off: O. Lamsa
86′SUBSTITUTION · 71' OLS · On: J. Omotayo · Off: L. Teppo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 71' OLS · On: K. Jatta · Off: A. Aapajarvi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tampere United · On: R. Vaisanen · Off: J. Huhtala
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Tampere United · On: R. Lehtonen · Off: J. Laitinen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tampere United · On: J. Malinen · Off: K. Huhta
89′J. Rantala scores for Tampere United on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–98
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' OLS
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' J. Korhonen · OLS
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' M. Babb · OLS
90′PENALTY MISSED · 90' J. Rantala · Tampere United
FTFULL TIME OLS 0–1 Tampere United
FTOLS 0–1 Tampere United · OLS win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

OLS win47%

Draw23%

Tampere United win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · OTC Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

OLS

Formation not confirmed

4 L. Ilola

26 J. Eghenolohor

31 M. Babb

40 J. Korhonen

44 O. Niemela

46 M. Ajoung

47 E. Raittinen

51 O. Lamsa

54 A. Aapajarvi

62 T. Backman

83 L. Teppo

Coach · Mikko Mannila

Substitutes

19 · J. Omotayo

20 · K. Jatta

24 · C. S. Thomas

38 · J. Polvi

45 · E. Merikanto

49 · T. Ridanpaa

57 · M. Fyrsten

60 · P. Yllasjarvi

Tampere United

Formation not confirmed

4 A. Kovaqi

5 J. Laitinen

9 J. Huhtala

10 T. Ozcelik

15 J. Rantala

17 L. Kesti

19 L. Bradbury

21 J. Enbuska

23 L. Kyllonen

25 S. Pakkanen

29 K. Huhta

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Immonen

6 · N. Hasa

8 · R. Lehtonen

11 · J. Rantanen

16 · J. Malinen

18 · O. Torniainen

22 · R. Vaisanen

28 · T. Sovelius

30 · J. Heikkinen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

OLS

Formation not confirmed

4 L. Ilola

26 J. Eghenolohor

31 M. Babb

40 J. Korhonen

44 O. Niemela

46 M. Ajoung

47 E. Raittinen

51 O. Lamsa

54 A. Aapajarvi

62 T. Backman

83 L. Teppo

Coach · Mikko Mannila

Substitutes

19 · J. Omotayo

20 · K. Jatta

24 · C. S. Thomas

38 · J. Polvi

45 · E. Merikanto

49 · T. Ridanpaa

57 · M. Fyrsten

60 · P. Yllasjarvi

Tampere United

Formation not confirmed

4 A. Kovaqi

5 J. Laitinen

9 J. Huhtala

10 T. Ozcelik

15 J. Rantala

17 L. Kesti

19 L. Bradbury

21 J. Enbuska

23 L. Kyllonen

25 S. Pakkanen

29 K. Huhta

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Immonen

6 · N. Hasa

8 · R. Lehtonen

11 · J. Rantanen

16 · J. Malinen

18 · O. Torniainen

22 · R. Vaisanen

28 · T. Sovelius

30 · J. Heikkinen

Our number · ols winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

47% The market43%

Us47%

~~Market~~43%

We make OLS a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ols win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
OLS win	47%	43%	+4
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Tampere United win	30%	34%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	70%	−5
Both teams to score	64%	70%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	84%	86%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	42%	49%	−7
OLS or draw	70%	66%	+3
OLS clean sheet	24%	–	–
Tampere United clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 5.2 3.9 1 6.7 9.9 7.1 3.5 2 6.3 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 3.9 5.5 4.0 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+OLS down, Tampere United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Ykkönen matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ykkönen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

OLS at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tampere United away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for OLS, 1.46 for Tampere United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~OLS 2–1 TAM · TAM 3–0 OLS · TAM 0–2 OLS · OLS 1–3 TAM

Form · last six in Ykkönen

OLS

DLWDWW3–3 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

TAMPERE UNITED

DWLWLW1–1 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 4–6 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampere United	25	+32	50
2	Rops	25	+15	44
3	SalPa	25	+7	42
4	OLS	25	+13	41
5	VJS	25	+12	40
6	FC jazz	25	+6	39
7	PKKU	25	+8	38
8	JJK	25	+2	31
9	TPV	25	−13	27
10	Inter Turku II	25	−14	26
11	KPV-j	25	−48	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	25	−20	15