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KuPS Akatemia v VJS

KuPS Akatemia

1–2Full time

VJS

Ykkönen · SAT 10 OCT · Vare Areena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

KuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS VJS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VJS win~~43%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.487

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 37 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VJS win at 43%.
2′KICK-OFF KuPS Akatemia v VJS
3′Much as we predicted: VJS was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' KuPS Akatemia 0–1 VJS
44′38′ and it is 0–1: A. Achenchab on the scoresheet for VJS. 0–1 · 10–20–70
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' VJS win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME KuPS Akatemia 0–1 VJS
49′VJS ahead on 49′ through L. Santjer. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' VJS · On: L. Aalto · Off: U. Kumpulainen
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' KuPS Akatemia 0–2 VJS
49′SECOND HALF KuPS Akatemia 0–2 VJS
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' VJS win: 43% at kick-off, 91% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' KuPS Akatemia · On: P. Hautakangas · Off: R. Tahkola
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' KuPS Akatemia · On: A. Baseme · Off: L. Paasisalo
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' VJS
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VJS · On: E. Uzun · Off: J. Rahja
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VJS · On: O. Ojala · Off: J. Merinen
71′We published VJS at 43%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' VJS win: 43% at kick-off, 97% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' VJS
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' KuPS Akatemia · On: K. Prince Ume · Off: E. Karkkainen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' KuPS Akatemia · On: N. Oksanen · Off: E. Erguner
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' VJS · On: D. Hvidberg · Off: A. Achenchab
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' KuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS
82′⚽ GOAL · 80' KuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS · J. Kivijarvi
89′⚽ GOAL · 38' KuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS · A. Achenchab
89′SUBSTITUTION · 46' VJS · On: L. Aalto · Off: U. Kumpulainen
89′⚽ GOAL · 49' KuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS · L. Santjer
89′SUBSTITUTION · 59' KuPS Akatemia · On: P. Hautakangas · Off: R. Tahkola
89′SUBSTITUTION · 59' KuPS Akatemia · On: A. Baseme · Off: L. Paasisalo
89′🟨 YELLOW · 62' M. Marin · VJS
89′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VJS · On: E. Uzun · Off: J. Rahja
89′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VJS · On: O. Ojala · Off: J. Merinen
89′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Ahla · VJS
89′SUBSTITUTION · 72' KuPS Akatemia · On: K. Prince Ume · Off: E. Karkkainen
89′SUBSTITUTION · 72' KuPS Akatemia · On: N. Oksanen · Off: E. Erguner
89′SUBSTITUTION · 72' VJS · On: D. Hvidberg · Off: A. Achenchab
89′SUBSTITUTION · 79' KuPS Akatemia · On: D. Huttunen · Off: E. Kirjavainen
89′⚽ GOAL · 80' KuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS · J. Kivijarvi
90′J. Kivijarvi scores for KuPS Akatemia on 80′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' VJS · On: M. O. Myllylahti · Off: J. Holopainen
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' D. Huttunen · KuPS Akatemia
FTFULL TIME KuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS
FTKuPS Akatemia 1–2 VJS · VJS win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

KuPS Akatemia win34%

Draw22%

VJS win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Vare Areena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

KuPS Akatemia

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Kauppinen

5 R. Tahkola

7 L. Paasisalo

8 J. Kivijarvi

10 V. Mutlu

13 P. Tuomainen

18 V. Lahtela

20 E. Karkkainen

22 E. Erguner

23 N. Mattila

28 E. Kirjavainen

Coach · Juho Neuvonen

Substitutes

9 · D. Huttunen

14 · P. Hautakangas

19 · K. Prince Ume

21 · N. Oksanen

26 · A. Baseme

27 · S. Silvennoinen

33 · A. Niskanen

VJS

Formation not confirmed

4 M. Marin

8 A. Achenchab

11 J. Rahja

17 J. Merinen

19 V. Salo

23 J. Tynkkynen

24 U. Kumpulainen

25 A. Ahla

52 L. Santjer

97 A. Babiker

99 J. Holopainen

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · T. Koponen

14 · E. Uzun

15 · D. Hvidberg

22 · O. Blommendahl

27 · L. Aalto

51 · M. O. Myllylahti

58 · O. Ojala

60 · J. Johansson

90 · E. Wikstrom

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

KuPS Akatemia

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Kauppinen

5 R. Tahkola

7 L. Paasisalo

8 J. Kivijarvi

10 V. Mutlu

13 P. Tuomainen

18 V. Lahtela

20 E. Karkkainen

22 E. Erguner

23 N. Mattila

28 E. Kirjavainen

Coach · Juho Neuvonen

Substitutes

9 · D. Huttunen

14 · P. Hautakangas

19 · K. Prince Ume

21 · N. Oksanen

26 · A. Baseme

27 · S. Silvennoinen

33 · A. Niskanen

VJS

Formation not confirmed

4 M. Marin

8 A. Achenchab

11 J. Rahja

17 J. Merinen

19 V. Salo

23 J. Tynkkynen

24 U. Kumpulainen

25 A. Ahla

52 L. Santjer

97 A. Babiker

99 J. Holopainen

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · T. Koponen

14 · E. Uzun

15 · D. Hvidberg

22 · O. Blommendahl

27 · L. Aalto

51 · M. O. Myllylahti

58 · O. Ojala

60 · J. Johansson

90 · E. Wikstrom

Our number · vjs winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

43% The market59%

Us43%

~~Market~~59%

We make VJS a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vjs win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KuPS Akatemia win	34%	21%	+13
Draw	22%	20%	+2
VJS win	43%	59%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	75%	−8
Both teams to score	67%	71%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	89%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	57%	−12
KuPS Akatemia or draw	57%	41%	+16
KuPS Akatemia clean sheet	16%	–	–
VJS clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.4 5.7 5.3 3.3 1 5.0 9.4 8.4 5.2 2.5 2 4.1 7.4 6.8 4.2 3 2.2 4.0 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KuPS Akatemia down, VJS across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Ykkönen matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ykkönen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KuPS Akatemia at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). VJS away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for KuPS Akatemia, 1.85 for VJS. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KUP 2–2 VJS · VJS 0–0 KUP

Form · last six in Ykkönen

KUPS AKATEMIA

DWLLLL2–2 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 0–3

VJS

DDLWWW4–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampere United	25	+32	50
2	Rops	25	+15	44
3	SalPa	25	+7	42
4	OLS	25	+13	41
5	VJS	25	+12	40
6	FC jazz	25	+6	39
7	PKKU	25	+8	38
8	JJK	25	+2	31
9	TPV	25	−13	27
10	Inter Turku II	25	−14	26
11	KPV-j	25	−48	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	25	−20	15