KPV-j v Inter Turku II prediction · Ykkönen

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

KPV-j 1–1 Inter Turku II INTER TURKU II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Turku II win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.954

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.972

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Turku II win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inter Turku II 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 34–21–46
1′KICK-OFF KPV-j v Inter Turku II
7′KPV-j find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 55–20–25
7′We said Inter Turku II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 55–20–25
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' KPV-j 1–0 Inter Turku II
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Inter Turku II win: 46% at kick-off, 25% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' KPV-j win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Inter Turku II win 25%)
12′We said Inter Turku II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 56–20–24
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' KPV-j
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' KPV-j
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 58–22–20
33′We said Inter Turku II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Inter Turku II win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' KPV-j
45′HALF-TIME KPV-j 1–0 Inter Turku II
46′SECOND HALF KPV-j 1–0 Inter Turku II
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Inter Turku II · On: M. Hoglund · Off: A. Hilden
49′We said Inter Turku II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inter Turku II · On: E. Kiviranta · Off: A. Rashica
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inter Turku II · On: I. Moilanen · Off: E. Bonsu
62′We said Inter Turku II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' KPV-j · On: L. Kykyri · Off: N. Santalo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' KPV-j · On: W. Wegye · Off: V. Akerblom
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' KPV-j
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Inter Turku II win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
74′We said Inter Turku II at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Inter Turku II · On: D. Bameyi · Off: A. Sandler
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Inter Turku II
81′KPV-j are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 84–15–2
81′🟥 RED CARD · 80' KPV-j
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Inter Turku II · On: P. Otoo · Off: A. Ahmed
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' KPV-j · On: J. Himanka · Off: A. Arope
90′A second red card for KPV-j on 90′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 94–6–0
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' KPV-j
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' KPV-j
91′A goal for Inter Turku II on 90′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 5–90–5
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' KPV-j 1–1 Inter Turku II
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 90% (was KPV-j win 5%)
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' KPV-j
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' KPV-j · On: M. Kalliokoski · Off: J. Maenpaa
FTFULL TIME KPV-j 1–1 Inter Turku II
FTKPV-j 1–1 Inter Turku II · Inter Turku II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Turku II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KPV-j 34%, draw 21%, Inter Turku II 46%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on KPV-j v Inter Turku IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

KPV-j win34%

Draw21%

Inter Turku II win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueKokkolan keskuskentta

Line-ups

KPV-j

Inter Turku II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KPV-j

Inter Turku II

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Ykkönen

Last match: 12 Oct · Ykkönen

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Inter Turku II	26	−9	29
11	KPV-j	26	−52	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

KPV-j

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Kytolaakso

3 D. Madut

7 P. Kytolaakso

8 V. Valipakka

11 N. Santalo

13 O. Moilanen

14 V. Akerblom

20 J. Maenpaa

22 O. Santalo

45 A. Arope

87 O. Lansipaa

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · K. Suoraniemi

99 · F. Enqvist

9 · W. Wegye

10 · J. Adarkwa

15 · J. Himanka

16 · A. Vesa

18 · L. Kykyri

26 · M. Kalliokoski

44 · J. Moilanen

Inter Turku II

Formation not confirmed

61 A. Hilden

38 A. Pozo

41 P. Aalto

45 O. Saikkonen

46 N. Meltoranta

47 S. Korsunov

52 A. Rashica

54 R. Mendolin

56 E. Bonsu

58 A. Ahmed

59 A. Sandler

Coach · Jussi-Pekka Savolainen

Substitutes

60 · M. Hoglund

39 · D. Bameyi

43 · I. Moilanen

50 · E. Kiviranta

53 · E. Liljestrom

55 · M. Jaskari

57 · O. Repo

66 · P. Otoo

Our number · inter turku ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:36 · locked at kick-off

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make Inter Turku II a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KPV-j v Inter Turku II~~1.81 – 2.13

~~Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 29~~11 v 10

~~The market · Inter Turku II win~~53% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Turku II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KPV-j win	34%	26%	+8
Draw	21%	21%	0
Inter Turku II win	46%	53%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Both teams to score	73%	77%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	90%	91%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	55%	64%	−9
KPV-j or draw	54%	47%	+7
KPV-j clean sheet	12%	–	–
Inter Turku II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%

0123450 2.2 4.2 4.5 3.1 1 3.6 7.6 7.8 5.5 3.0 2 3.3 6.7 7.0 4.9 2.6 3 4.1 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KPV-j down, Inter Turku II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 969 Ykkönen matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ykkönen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KPV-j at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Turku II away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for KPV-j, 2.13 for Inter Turku II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~INT 2–3 KPV · KPV 4–2 INT · KPV 2–1 INT · INT 7–1 KPV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 21 Aug

KPV-J

LLLWLL2–4 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–4

INTER TURKU II

LLLWWW0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 6–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampere United	26	+33	53
2	Rops	26	+20	47
3	SalPa	26	+11	45
4	VJS	26	+13	43
5	OLS	26	+12	41
6	FC jazz	26	+1	39
7	PKKU	26	+4	38
8	JJK	26	−3	31
9	TPV	26	−9	30
10	Inter Turku II	26	−9	29
11	KPV-j	26	−52	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	26	−21	15