JJK v PKKU prediction · Ykkönen

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

JJK 6–2 PKKU JJK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JJK win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.476

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JJK win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: JJK was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–21–35
1′KICK-OFF JJK v PKKU
11′PKKU score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–20–57
11′We said JJK at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–20–57
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' JJK 0–1 PKKU
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' JJK win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' PKKU win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was JJK win 23%)
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' PKKU
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' PKKU
18′JJK find the net on 18′. 1–1. 1–1 · 42–24–34
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' JJK 1–1 PKKU
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' JJK win: 44% at kick-off, 42% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' JJK win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was PKKU win 34%)
25′A goal for JJK on 25′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 67–19–15
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' JJK 2–1 PKKU
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' JJK win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
26′We published JJK at 44%. Our model now makes it 67%. 2–1 · 67–19–15
33′JJK score on 33′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 87–9–4
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' JJK 3–1 PKKU
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' JJK win: 44% at kick-off, 87% now
34′We published JJK at 44%. Our model now makes it 87%. 3–1 · 87–9–4
34′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 87–9–4
37′JJK find the net on 36′. 4–1. 4–1 · 96–3–1
37′We published JJK at 44%. Our model now makes it 96%. 4–1 · 96–3–1
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' JJK 4–1 PKKU
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' JJK win: 44% at kick-off, 96% now
38′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 96–3–1
41′JJK ahead on 37′ through M. Lundell. 4–1. 4–1 · 97–3–1
44′A goal for PKKU on 43′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 89–8–3
44′6 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 89–8–3
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' JJK 4–2 PKKU
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' JJK win: 44% at kick-off, 89% now
45′HALF-TIME JJK 4–2 PKKU
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PKKU · On: M. Vuohtoniemi · Off: A. Marjo
46′SECOND HALF JJK 4–2 PKKU
48′We published JJK at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 4–2 · 90–8–3
51′JJK score on 51′ to make it 5–2. 5–2 · 98–2–0
51′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.9 across ninety minutes. 5–2 · 98–2–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' JJK 5–2 PKKU
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' JJK win: 44% at kick-off, 98% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' JJK · On: P. U. Imonioro · Off: M. Lundell
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' JJK · On: E. Sainila · Off: A. Jalasvaara
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PKKU · On: N. Nenonen · Off: M. Ahmed
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PKKU · On: E. Pekkala · Off: R. Kortelainen
71′We published JJK at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 5–2 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' JJK · On: O. Schroderus · Off: N. Liimatainen
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' JJK · On: S. Kahari · Off: A. Tolra
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' PKKU · On: J. Sivunen · Off: A. Barraza
93′JJK find the net on 90′. 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' JJK 6–2 PKKU
94′8 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 6–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME JJK 6–2 PKKU
FTJJK 6–2 PKKU · JJK win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

JJK are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JJK 44%, draw 21%, PKKU 35%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on JJK v PKKUBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

JJK win44%

Draw21%

PKKU win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueHarjun Stadion

Line-ups

JJK

PKKU

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JJK

PKKU

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Ykkönen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	PKKU	26	+4	38
8	JJK	26	−3	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

JJK

Formation not confirmed

30 A. Oikarinen

3 B. Akdogan

4 V. Kangasniemi

8 T. Pahkala

9 A. Goljahanpoor

14 L. Suutarinen

19 N. Liimatainen

20 A. Jalasvaara

22 D. Wacklin

26 M. Lundell

33 A. Tolra

Coach · Brian Page

Substitutes

1 · L. Vetri

11 · E. Sainila

17 · P. U. Imonioro

21 · O. Schroderus

24 · S. Kahari

PKKU

Formation not confirmed

99 V. Holopainen

6 V. Azemi

7 M. Ahmed

15 A. Deng

16 J. Norss

17 S. Tiainen

19 N. Lokake

23 R. Kortelainen

25 O. Niemi

28 A. Barraza

33 A. Marjo

Coach · Teemu Romppanen

Substitutes

56 · O. Tikkanen

4 · M. Vuohtoniemi

11 · N. Nenonen

13 · J. Sivunen

30 · E. Pekkala

Our number · jjk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make JJK a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JJK v PKKU~~2.06 – 1.81

~~Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 31 v 38~~8 v 7

~~The market · JJK win~~39% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · JJK win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JJK win	44%	39%	+5
Draw	21%	23%	−2
PKKU win	35%	37%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Both teams to score	72%	76%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
JJK or draw	65%	63%	+2
JJK clean sheet	17%	–	–
PKKU clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.3 3.8 3.5 2.1 1 4.4 7.8 6.9 4.2 2 4.5 7.8 7.0 4.2 3 3.1 5.4 4.8 2.9 4 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JJK down, PKKU across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 969 Ykkönen matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ykkönen matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.57 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JJK at home: 3.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). PKKU away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for JJK, 1.81 for PKKU. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PKK 2–2 JJK · JJK 1–3 PKK · JJK 2–3 PKK · PKK 2–0 JJK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 21 Aug

JJK

DWLLLL2–2 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 1–6

PKKU

DWLWLL2–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampere United	26	+33	53
2	Rops	26	+20	47
3	SalPa	26	+11	45
4	VJS	26	+13	43
5	OLS	26	+12	41
6	FC jazz	26	+1	39
7	PKKU	26	+4	38
8	JJK	26	−3	31
9	TPV	26	−9	30
10	Inter Turku II	26	−9	29
11	KPV-j	26	−52	18
12	KuPS Akatemia	26	−21	15