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Model 1.2

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FC jazz v KuPS Akatemia

FC jazz
2–2Full time
KuPS Akatemia

Ykkönen · SUN 18 OCT · Porin Stadion

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
FC jazz 2–2 KuPS Akatemia FC JAZZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC jazz win58%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.037
The market’s Brier score1.037

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC jazz win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: FC jazz 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC jazz v KuPS Akatemia
  4. 3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' FC jazz
  5. 13′PENALTY MISSED · 13' KuPS Akatemia
  6. 15′A goal for KuPS Akatemia on 14′. 0–0 · 55–22–23
  7. 15′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–23–45
  8. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' FC jazz 0–1 KuPS Akatemia
  9. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 33% now
  10. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' KuPS Akatemia win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was FC jazz win 33%)
  11. 25′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–47
  12. 26′FC jazz find the net on 26′. 0–1 · 29–24–47
  13. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' FC jazz 1–1 KuPS Akatemia
  14. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 53% now
  15. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' FC jazz win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was KuPS Akatemia win 23%)
  16. 39′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 1–1 · 49–28–23
  17. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  18. 45′HALF-TIME FC jazz 1–1 KuPS Akatemia
  19. 45′SECOND HALF FC jazz 1–1 KuPS Akatemia
  20. 47′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–32–22
  21. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' FC jazz
  22. 51′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–34–22
  23. 61′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–20
  24. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
  25. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FC jazz win 38%)
  26. 67′We said FC jazz at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  27. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' FC jazz 2–1 KuPS Akatemia
  28. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 82% now
  29. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' FC jazz win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 15%)
  30. 68′FC jazz find the net on 67′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  31. 69′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 33–50–18
  32. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' KuPS Akatemia · On: R. Tikkanen · Off: L. Paasisalo
  33. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC jazz 2–2 KuPS Akatemia
  34. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 33% now
  35. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was FC jazz win 33%)
  36. 70′A goal for KuPS Akatemia on 69′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 32–51–17
  37. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
  38. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC jazz · On: P. Salminen · Off: A. Luhtanen
  39. 77′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–62–14
  40. 81′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 18–71–11
  41. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  42. 84′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–79–8
  43. 88′We said FC jazz at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–5
  44. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' FC jazz win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  45. FTFULL TIME FC jazz 2–2 KuPS Akatemia
  46. FTFC jazz 2–2 KuPS Akatemia · FC jazz win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC jazz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC jazz 58%, draw 19%, KuPS Akatemia 22%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on FC jazz v KuPS AkatemiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC jazz win58%
Draw19%
KuPS Akatemia win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup stage

VenuePorin Stadion

Line-ups

FC jazz

KuPS Akatemia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC jazz

KuPS Akatemia

6Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Ykkönen

Last match: 10 Oct · Ykkönen

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6FC jazz26+139
12KuPS Akatemia26−2115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC jazz

Formation not confirmed

26 J. Riihela

2 J. Lemio

3 J. Nuorela

4 A. Luhtanen

5 J. Lakkamaki

8 E. Kaipiainen

12 E. Vare

14 J. Marttila

16 J. Petrishin

17 L. Nuorela

22 J. Pulla

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Takala

6 · N. Aydin

7 · C. Harjanne

9 · E. Lamberg

11 · P. Salminen

13 · E. Ruusuvuori

KuPS Akatemia

Formation not confirmed

12 K. Silen

7 L. Paasisalo

8 J. Kivijarvi

13 P. Tuomainen

14 P. Hautakangas

16 A. Tahkola

18 V. Lahtela

20 E. Karkkainen

21 N. Oksanen

22 E. Erguner

23 N. Mattila

Coach · Juho Neuvonen

Substitutes

1 · K. Kauppinen

3 · R. Tikkanen

5 · R. Tahkola

9 · D. Huttunen

33 · A. Niskanen

Our number · fc jazz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:36 · locked at kick-off
58% The market59%
Us58%
Market59%

We make FC jazz a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC jazz v KuPS Akatemia2.35 – 1.41
Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 21 AugW3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 39 v 156 v 12
The market · FC jazz win59% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 12:42
Our probability · FC jazz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC jazz win58%59%−1
Draw19%20%−1
KuPS Akatemia win22%21%+1
Over 2.5 goals72%78%−6
Both teams to score68%73%−5
Over 1.5 goals89%91%−2
Over 3.5 goals51%61%−10
FC jazz or draw78%79%−1
FC jazz clean sheet25%––
KuPS Akatemia clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%
0123450 2.6 3.4 2.4 1 5.6 7.8 5.4 2.6 2 6.5 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 5.0 6.9 4.8 2.3 4 3.0 4.1 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC jazz down, KuPS Akatemia across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.55 of 6
Both scored5 of 6
Last meetingsFCJ 2–2 KUP · KUP 1–2 FCJ · FCJ 2–1 KUP · KUP 2–1 FCJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ykkönen this season · since 21 Aug

FC JAZZ

DWWLWL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–6

KUPS AKATEMIA

WLLLLL4–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tampere United26+3353
2Rops26+2047
3SalPa26+1145
4VJS26+1343
5OLS26+1241
6FC jazz26+139
7PKKU26+438
8JJK26−331
9TPV26−930
10Inter Turku II26−929
11KPV-j26−5218
12KuPS Akatemia26−2115

The competition's standings before kick-off.