VPS v Inter Turku prediction · Veikkausliiga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

VPS 0–1 Inter Turku INTER TURKU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Turku win~~42%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.310

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Turku win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inter Turku was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 29–28–42
1′KICK-OFF VPS v Inter Turku
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Inter Turku win 37%)
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Antti-Ville Raisanen · VPS
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Janne-Pekka Laine · Inter Turku
45′SECOND HALF VPS 0–0 Inter Turku
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Inter Turku win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45+4' VPS · On: Jonathan Muzinga · Off: Yassin Daoussi
51′We said Inter Turku at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 23–47–30
55′We said Inter Turku at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–50–29
57′7 shots for Inter Turku, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 24–43–33
57′HALF-TIME VPS 0–0 Inter Turku
61′9 shots for Inter Turku, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 20–55–26
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Lassana Mané · VPS
64′We said Inter Turku at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 18–57–24
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Julius Tauriainen · Inter Turku
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Inter Turku · On: Lauri Laine · Off: Alie Conteh
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Inter Turku win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' VPS · On: Paulo Lima · Off: Antti-Ville Raisanen
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' VPS · On: Dren terrnava · Off: Lassana Mané
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' VPS · On: Xavier Odhiambo · Off: Wilson Samake
72′We said Inter Turku at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–67–19
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Inter Turku
78′We said Inter Turku at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–75–14
78′A red card for Inter Turku on 77′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 11–75–14
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Inter Turku win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Inter Turku · On: Jean Botué · Off: Clinton Degol Jephta
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Inter Turku · On: Muhammed Suso · Off: Jasse Tuominen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Inter Turku · On: Johannes Yli-Kokko · Off: Herman Sjögrell
83′We said Inter Turku at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' VPS · On: Joonas Vahtera · Off: Henri Salomaa
84′We published Inter Turku at 42%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–1 · 0–6–94
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' VPS 0–1 Inter Turku
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Inter Turku win: 42% at kick-off, 94% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Inter Turku win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 86%)
86′Lauri Laine scores for Inter Turku on 84′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′We published Inter Turku at 42%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Inter Turku · On: Yeboah Amankwah · Off: Julius Tauriainen
93′Full time, 0–1. We called Inter Turku at 42% — that one lands. 0–1 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Jonathan Muzinga · VPS
FTFULL TIME VPS 0–1 Inter Turku
FTVPS 0–1 Inter Turku · Inter Turku win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Turku are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VPS 29%, draw 28%, Inter Turku 42%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on VPS v Inter TurkuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

VPS win29%

Draw28%

Inter Turku win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 29

VenueLemonsoft Stadion

RefereeKontinen Joona

Line-ups

VPS

3-4-1-2

Inter Turku

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VPS

Inter Turku

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Veikkausliiga

Last match: 17 Oct · Veikkausliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

VPS

3-4-1-2

41 M. Jalloh

3 Razak Simpson

6 E. Okereke

23 M. Niemi

13 Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi

24 Y. Daoussi

34 A. Räisänen

7 J. Turfkruier

2 L. Mane

29 W. Samaké

25 Henri Salomaa

Coach · J. Nuorela

Substitutes

18 · A. Arrakoski

9 · C. Holmelund

8 · Paulo Jorge Barros Pimentel Lima

14 · S. Lindholm

11 · J. Muzinga

20 · X. Odhiambo

1 · A. Piispa

17 · Dren Tërrnava

30 · J. Vahtera

Inter Turku

4-3-3

1 E. Huuhtanen

24 J. Tauriainen

6 R. Ivanov

3 J. Hämäläinen

2 J. Niska

9 J. Tuominen

14 J. Laine

35 Eeli Kiiskilä

7 H. Sjögrell

10 Alie Conteh

16 C. Jephta

Coach · V. Vasara

Substitutes

28 · L. Laine

18 · S. Saarinen

33 · Muhammed Suso

12 · E. Vuorjoki

8 · J. Yli-Kokko

22 · L. Kuittinen

19 · I. Järvinen

11 · J. Botué

30 · Y. Amankwah

Our number · inter turku winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market55%

Us42%

~~Market~~55%

We make Inter Turku a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VPS v Inter Turku~~1.01 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 52~~6 v 1

~~The market · Inter Turku win~~55% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Turku win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VPS win	29%	20%	+9
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Inter Turku win	42%	55%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	73%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
VPS or draw	58%	45%	+13
VPS clean sheet	28%	–	–
Inter Turku clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.5 12.9 8.3 3.6 1 10.2 13.0 8.2 3.5 2 5.2 6.5 4.1 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VPS down, Inter Turku across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,014 Veikkausliiga matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VPS at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Turku away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for VPS, 1.28 for Inter Turku. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INT 1–0 VPS · VPS 0–1 INT · VPS 2–3 INT · INT 0–0 VPS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept

VPS

WLLLWL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 0–2

INTER TURKU

LWWDWL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Champion Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	28	+14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	+21	51
3	KuPS	28	+17	51
4	Gnistan	28	+3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	−2	40
6	VPS	28	−2	39

The competition's standings before kick-off.

VPS v Inter Turku

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

VPS

Inter Turku

Rest & schedule

VPS

Inter Turku

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

VPS

Inter Turku

Match statistics

Line-ups

VPS

Inter Turku

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept

The table