VPS v Gnistan prediction · Veikkausliiga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

VPS 1–0 Gnistan VPS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VPS win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VPS win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: VPS 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–34
1′KICK-OFF VPS v Gnistan
35′We said VPS at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' VPS 1–0 Gnistan
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' VPS 1–0 Gnistan
36′36′ and it is 1–0: Xavier Odhiambo on the scoresheet for VPS. 1–0 · 69–21–10
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
39′We said VPS at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' VPS win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Gnistan · On: Joakim Latonen · Off: Artur Atarah
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Gnistan · On: Sergey Eremenko · Off: Danny Pérez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VPS · On: Henri Salomaa · Off: Xavier Odhiambo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' VPS · On: Jonathan Muzinga · Off: Casper Holmelund
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' VPS · On: Yassin Daoussi · Off: Jayden Turfkruier
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' VPS · On: Simon Lindholm · Off: Joonas Vahtera
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Gnistan · On: Otto Hannula · Off: Edmund Arko-Mensah
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gnistan · On: Noah Rossi · Off: Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga Obileye
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' VPS · On: Razak Simpson · Off: Antti-Ville Raisanen
FTFULL TIME VPS 1–0 Gnistan
FTVPS 1–0 Gnistan · VPS win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

VPS win40%

Draw25%

Gnistan win35%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:00

VenueLemonsoft Stadion

RefereeDennis Antamo

Line-ups

VPS

3-4-1-2

Gnistan

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

VPS

Gnistan

4Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gnistan	26	+8	42
7	VPS	26	−1	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

VPS

3-4-1-2

41 M. Jalloh

2 L. Mane

6 E. Okereke

23 M. Niemi

27 K. Kouassivi-Benissan

34 A. Raisanen

8 P. Lima

7 J. Turfkruier

30 J. Vahtera

20 X. Odhiambo

9 C. Holmelund

Coach · Jussi Nuorela

Substitutes

1 · A. Piispa

24 · Y. Daoussi

26 · O. Ogunniyi

14 · S. Lindholm

3 · R. Simpson

17 · D. Terrnava

25 · H. Salomaa

11 · J. Muzinga

29 · W. Samake

Gnistan

5-4-1

1 O. Virtanen

19 B. Milovanov

24 R. Gnanou

67 A. Obileye

3 Ruxi

12 E. Arko-Mensah

7 A. Atarah

31 A. Jouhi

15 G. Europaeus

11 D. Perez

26 R. Eremenko

Coach · Jussi Leppalahti

Substitutes

95 · M. Juricka

40 · J. Ojala

2 · B. Dahlstrom

25 · N. Rossi

27 · O. Hannula

14 · S. Eremenko

10 · J. Latonen

23 · S. Ylatupa

Our number · vps winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make VPS a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vps win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VPS win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Gnistan win	35%	35%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	55%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
VPS or draw	65%	65%	+1
VPS clean sheet	26%	–	–
Gnistan clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.0 7.8 5.4 2.5 1 8.6 11.6 7.8 3.6 2 6.4 8.6 5.8 2.6 3 3.2 4.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VPS down, Gnistan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,005 Veikkausliiga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VPS at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gnistan away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for VPS, 1.36 for Gnistan. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 15:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~GNI 1–1 VPS · VPS 1–1 GNI · GNI 0–0 VPS · VPS 0–0 GNI

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga

VPS

WLWLLL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–6

GNISTAN

WDDWDD3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	27	+15	52
2	KuPS	27	+15	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	+16	45
4	Gnistan	26	+8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	−2	37
6	Lahti	26	+5	36
7	VPS	26	−1	36
8	Ilves	26	+4	35
9	Turku PS	26	0	32
10	SJK	26	−6	27
11	FF Jaro	26	−27	20
12	Mariehamn	26	−27	18