Home › Football › Veikkausliiga › Turku PS v FF Jaro

Turku PS v FF Jaro

Turku PS

0–1Full time

FF Jaro

Veikkausliiga · SAT 10 OCT · Veritas Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Turku PS 0–1 FF Jaro TURKU PS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Turku PS win~~54%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.976

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.772

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Turku PS win at 54%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Turku PS 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
3′KICK-OFF Turku PS v FF Jaro
24′Turku PS have had 7.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 48–31–21
30′Turku PS have had 11.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 47–33–20
34′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Fabian Ostigard Ness · FF Jaro
37′12.0 shots for Turku PS, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 44–36–20
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Turku PS win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
43′We said Turku PS at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–39–19
45′HALF-TIME Turku PS 0–0 FF Jaro
46′SECOND HALF Turku PS 0–0 FF Jaro
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jesper Svenungsen Skau · FF Jaro
59′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Fabian Ostigard Ness · FF Jaro
59′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jesper Svenungsen Skau · FF Jaro
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Turku PS · On: Luke Ivanovic · Off: Joel Ahen Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Turku PS · On: Nils Veinbergs · Off: Samuel Anini Jr. Corrected
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Turku PS 0–1 FF Jaro
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Turku PS 0–1 FF Jaro · Jim Myrevik
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Matej Hradecky · Turku PS
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Gergő Kocsis · FF Jaro
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Turku PS · On: Atte Sihvonen · Off: Matej Hradecky Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FF Jaro · On: Adam Vidjeskog · Off: Jim Myrevik Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Atte Sihvonen · Turku PS
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Timo Zaal · Turku PS
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' FF Jaro · On: Valde Löfs · Off: Ville Vuorinen Corrected
FTFULL TIME Turku PS 0–1 FF Jaro
FTTurku PS 0–1 FF Jaro · Turku PS win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Turku PS win54%

Draw25%

FF Jaro win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Veritas Stadium

Referee · Joni Hyytia

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Turku PS

4-4-1-1

1 E. Henriksson

20 M. Kauppila

14 M. Hradecky

25 A. Tamba

3 E. Turkki

10 M. Konkkola

28 T. Vakiparta

22 T. Zaal

45 J. Ahen

41 S. Anini

29 A. Muzaci

Coach · Ivan Pinol

Substitutes

35 · D. Lauri

77 · T. Karkulowski

24 · N. Talo

15 · C. Azongnitode

17 · A. Sihvonen

26 · L. Ikonen

99 · K. Visser

9 · L. Ivanovic

44 · N. Veinbergs

FF Jaro

4-4-2

1 S. Vits

5 A. Bjonback

6 J. Brunell

4 M. Ogungbaro

19 F. O. Ness

21 J. Myrevik

25 G. Kocsis

7 J. Skau

22 K. Harden

23 J. Lawson

91 V. Vuorinen

Coach · Jens Karlsson

Substitutes

12 · J. Snellman

2 · F. Kass

20 · T. Soderstrom

8 · O. Kass Kawo

16 · A. Vidjeskog

24 · V. Lofs

77 · A. Sabriye

9 · L. Zetterstrom

27 · J. Vikstrom

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Turku PS

4-4-1-1

1 E. Henriksson

20 M. Kauppila

14 M. Hradecky

25 A. Tamba

3 E. Turkki

10 M. Konkkola

28 T. Vakiparta

22 T. Zaal

45 J. Ahen

41 S. Anini

29 A. Muzaci

Coach · Ivan Pinol

Substitutes

35 · D. Lauri

77 · T. Karkulowski

24 · N. Talo

15 · C. Azongnitode

17 · A. Sihvonen

26 · L. Ikonen

99 · K. Visser

9 · L. Ivanovic

44 · N. Veinbergs

FF Jaro

4-4-2

1 S. Vits

5 A. Bjonback

6 J. Brunell

4 M. Ogungbaro

19 F. O. Ness

21 J. Myrevik

25 G. Kocsis

7 J. Skau

22 K. Harden

23 J. Lawson

91 V. Vuorinen

Coach · Jens Karlsson

Substitutes

12 · J. Snellman

2 · F. Kass

20 · T. Soderstrom

8 · O. Kass Kawo

16 · A. Vidjeskog

24 · V. Lofs

77 · A. Sabriye

9 · L. Zetterstrom

27 · J. Vikstrom

Our number · turku ps winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market44%

Us54%

~~Market~~44%

We make Turku PS a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · turku ps win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Turku PS win	54%	44%	+9
Draw	25%	27%	−1
FF Jaro win	21%	29%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	57%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Turku PS or draw	79%	71%	+8
Turku PS clean sheet	42%	–	–
FF Jaro clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 8.8 7.4 3.3 1 13.2 11.8 5.2 2 10.5 9.2 4.1 3 5.6 4.9 2.2 4 2.3 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Turku PS down, FF Jaro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,002 Veikkausliiga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Turku PS at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FF Jaro away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Turku PS, 0.89 for FF Jaro. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TUR 3–2 FFJ · FFJ 2–2 TUR

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga

TURKU PS

WDDDLL3–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

FF JARO

LLLLDD0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	26	+14	49
2	KuPS	26	+16	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	+16	45
4	Gnistan	26	+8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	−2	37
6	Lahti	26	+5	36
7	VPS	26	−1	36
8	Ilves	25	+4	34
9	Turku PS	25	+1	32
10	SJK	26	−6	27
11	Mariehamn	25	−27	17
12	FF Jaro	25	−28	17