Home › Football › Veikkausliiga › SJK v Lahti

SJK v Lahti

SJK

1–0Full time

Lahti

Veikkausliiga · FRI 9 OCT · OmaSP Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 18:32

SJK 1–0 Lahti SJK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SJK win~~46%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.440

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.608

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SJK win46%

Draw26%

Lahti win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 16:00

Venue · OmaSP Stadion

Referee · Amir Hajizadeh

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SJK

5-3-2

35 J. Viitala

6 S. Yussif

28 K. Nwanege

2 F. Costantini

5 O. Vaisto

15 E. Mommo

23 A. Wilson

48 A. Traore

8 A. Bostrom

7 Kelwin

9 J. Streng

Coach · Jarkko Wiss

Substitutes

1 · R. Paunio

49 · E. Udom

19 · E. Mastokangas

22 · L. Vesterbacka

31 · E. Onuoha

51 · A. Cisse

43 · S. Bagayogo

Lahti

4-3-3

12 A. Hakala

7 D. Heikkinen

5 N. Gianini Dantas

6 V. Vehkonen

25 T. Inkinen

8 C. Montiel

18 Y. Cassubie

10 O. Koskinen

77 M. Sarr

9 A. Lindholm

20 J. Ojanen

Coach · Goncalo Pereira

Substitutes

31 · O. Maukonen

11 · Martim Augusto

4 · J. Muller

14 · E. Andersson

28 · A. Kabashi

17 · A. Belabid

41 · A. Paalanen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SJK

5-3-2

35 J. Viitala

6 S. Yussif

28 K. Nwanege

2 F. Costantini

5 O. Vaisto

15 E. Mommo

23 A. Wilson

48 A. Traore

8 A. Bostrom

7 Kelwin

9 J. Streng

Coach · Jarkko Wiss

Substitutes

1 · R. Paunio

49 · E. Udom

19 · E. Mastokangas

22 · L. Vesterbacka

31 · E. Onuoha

51 · A. Cisse

43 · S. Bagayogo

Lahti

4-3-3

12 A. Hakala

7 D. Heikkinen

5 N. Gianini Dantas

6 V. Vehkonen

25 T. Inkinen

8 C. Montiel

18 Y. Cassubie

10 O. Koskinen

77 M. Sarr

9 A. Lindholm

20 J. Ojanen

Coach · Goncalo Pereira

Substitutes

31 · O. Maukonen

11 · Martim Augusto

4 · J. Muller

14 · E. Andersson

28 · A. Kabashi

17 · A. Belabid

41 · A. Paalanen

Our number · sjk winPublished 9 Oct 16:01

46% The market37%

Us46%

~~Market~~37%

We make SJK a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sjk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SJK win	46%	37%	+9
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Lahti win	28%	37%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	59%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
SJK or draw	72%	63%	+8
SJK clean sheet	33%	–	–
Lahti clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.6 7.9 4.6 1 10.7 12.2 6.7 2.6 2 8.2 9.0 5.0 3 4.1 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SJK down, Lahti across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,001 Veikkausliiga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.90 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SJK at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lahti away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for SJK, 1.12 for Lahti. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 15:47. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SJK 1–2 LAH · LAH 2–3 SJK · SJK 5–5 LAH · LAH 0–4 SJK

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga

SJK

LLDDDW0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

LAHTI

LWWWLD1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	26	+14	49
2	KuPS	26	+16	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	+16	45
4	Gnistan	26	+8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	−2	37
6	Lahti	25	+6	36
7	VPS	26	−1	36
8	Ilves	25	+4	34
9	Turku PS	25	+1	32
10	SJK	25	−7	24
11	Mariehamn	25	−27	17
12	FF Jaro	25	−28	17