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Mariehamn v Ilves

Mariehamn

1–1Full time

Ilves

Veikkausliiga · SAT 10 OCT · Wiklöf Holding Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Mariehamn 1–1 Ilves ILVES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ilves win~~58%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.997

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.835

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ilves win at 58%.
3′Much as we predicted: Ilves was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 21–22–57
7′Much as we predicted: Ilves was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 21–22–57
36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Mariehamn
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 49% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 49% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 49% now
45′We said Ilves at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 20–34–46
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 49% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 46% now
45′SECOND HALF Mariehamn 0–0 Ilves
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 49% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 46% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 49% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 46% now
48′We said Ilves at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 20–36–44
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 46% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Goudouss Bamba · Ilves
50′We said Ilves at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 20–34–46
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ilves win: 58% at kick-off, 46% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mariehamn · On: Aaro Soiniemi · Off: Samson Ngulube Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Mariehamn · On: Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen · Off: Anttoni Huttunen Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Matias Rale · Ilves
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ilves · On: Maksim Stjopin · Off: Goudouss Bamba Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ilves · On: Yiandro Raap · Off: Oskari Multala Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ilves · On: Stanislav Baranov · Off: Elias Tamminen Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Mariehamn 0–1 Ilves
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Mariehamn 0–1 Ilves · Teemu Hytönen
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Arvid Bergvik · Mariehamn
78′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Arvid Bergvik · Mariehamn
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ilves · On: Tatu Miettunen · Off: Matias Rale Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Mariehamn · On: Marlo Hyvonen · Off: Adam Larsson Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Mariehamn 1–1 Ilves · Teemu Hytönen
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Mariehamn 1–1 Ilves · Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ilves · On: Hamidou Coulibaly · Off: Teemu Hytönen Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Mariehamn · On: Wille Nuñez · Off: Adam Stroud Corrected
FTFULL TIME Mariehamn 1–1 Ilves
FTMariehamn 1–1 Ilves · Ilves win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mariehamn win21%

Draw21%

Ilves win58%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Wiklöf Holding Arena

Referee · Matti Roth

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Mariehamn

4-2-3-1

1 K. Lund

27 L. Richtner

2 N. Nurmi

5 T. Koivisto

31 S. Ngulube

23 V. Widlund

20 E. Patut

16 A. Huttunen

14 A. Bergvik

18 A. Stroud

7 A. Larsson

Coach · Roberth Bjorknesjo

Substitutes

12 · O. Heino

3 · A. Soiniemi

11 · J. Svedberg

64 · M. Hyvonen

43 · L. Andersson

9 · W. Nunez

26 · M. Jansson

17 · R. Holmberg

19 · T. Jakobsen

Ilves

4-4-2

12 F. Krkalic

22 O. Multala

5 S. Vaisanen

24 V. Kumpu

3 M. Rale

13 K. Wallius

19 G. Bamba

14 A. Popovitch

28 J. Kilo

45 E. Tamminen

9 T. Hytonen

Coach · Camilo Speranza

Substitutes

31 · R. Leislahti

16 · T. Miettunen

6 · Y. Raap

33 · Y. Sacko

8 · M. Stjopin

17 · S. Baranov

11 · H. Coulibaly

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Mariehamn

4-2-3-1

1 K. Lund

27 L. Richtner

2 N. Nurmi

5 T. Koivisto

31 S. Ngulube

23 V. Widlund

20 E. Patut

16 A. Huttunen

14 A. Bergvik

18 A. Stroud

7 A. Larsson

Coach · Roberth Bjorknesjo

Substitutes

12 · O. Heino

3 · A. Soiniemi

11 · J. Svedberg

64 · M. Hyvonen

43 · L. Andersson

9 · W. Nunez

26 · M. Jansson

17 · R. Holmberg

19 · T. Jakobsen

Ilves

4-4-2

12 F. Krkalic

22 O. Multala

5 S. Vaisanen

24 V. Kumpu

3 M. Rale

13 K. Wallius

19 G. Bamba

14 A. Popovitch

28 J. Kilo

45 E. Tamminen

9 T. Hytonen

Coach · Camilo Speranza

Substitutes

31 · R. Leislahti

16 · T. Miettunen

6 · Y. Raap

33 · Y. Sacko

8 · M. Stjopin

17 · S. Baranov

11 · H. Coulibaly

Our number · ilves winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

58% The market42%

Us58%

~~Market~~42%

We make Ilves a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mariehamn win	21%	32%	−11
Draw	21%	26%	−4
Ilves win	58%	42%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Mariehamn or draw	42%	58%	−15
Mariehamn clean sheet	13%	–	–
Ilves clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.3 8.3 8.5 5.8 3.0 1 4.7 9.6 9.6 6.5 3.4 2 2.8 5.5 5.5 3.8 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mariehamn down, Ilves across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,002 Veikkausliiga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.2% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.64 goals a meeting; 6 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mariehamn at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ilves away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Mariehamn, 2.05 for Ilves. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.64

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 14

~~Both scored~~7 of 14

~~Last meetings~~ILV 2–0 MAR · MAR 2–2 ILV · ILV 2–1 MAR · MAR 3–2 ILV

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga

MARIEHAMN

WWWLWL2–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

ILVES

LLLWWW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	26	+14	49
2	KuPS	26	+16	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	+16	45
4	Gnistan	26	+8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	−2	37
6	Lahti	26	+5	36
7	VPS	26	−1	36
8	Ilves	25	+4	34
9	Turku PS	25	+1	32
10	SJK	26	−6	27
11	Mariehamn	25	−27	17
12	FF Jaro	25	−28	17