Lahti v Turku PS

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lahti win at 38%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lahti 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Lahti v Turku PS
4. 13′Turku PS find the net on 12′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–64
5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Lahti 0–1 Turku PS
6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Lahti win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
7. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Turku PS win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Lahti win 13%)
8. 14′Turku PS ahead on 13′ through Oscar Häggström. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–64
9. 14′We said Lahti at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–64
10. 19′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Lahti · On: Otso Koskinen · Off: Justus Ojanen
11. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Lahti 1–1 Turku PS
12. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Lahti win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
13. 24′Martim Ferreira scores for Lahti on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–36–30
14. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Charlemagne Azongnitode · Turku PS
15. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Turku PS win 29%)
16. 29′We said Lahti at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–1 · 71–21–8
17. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Lahti 2–1 Turku PS
18. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Lahti win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
19. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Lahti win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 21%)
20. 30′29′: Amir Belabid on the scoresheet for Lahti, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 71–21–8
21. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 71–21–8
22. 35′We said Lahti at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 3–1 · 93–6–1
23. 35′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 93–6–1
24. 35′Lahti ahead on 34′ through Otso Koskinen. 3–1. 3–1 · 93–6–1
25. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Lahti 3–1 Turku PS
26. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Lahti win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
27. 45′HALF-TIME Lahti 3–1 Turku PS
28. 46′SECOND HALF Lahti 3–1 Turku PS
29. 47′We said Lahti at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–5–1
30. 57′We said Lahti at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
31. 57′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
32. 57′Amir Belabid scores for Lahti on 56′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
33. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Lahti 4–1 Turku PS
34. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Lahti win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
35. 61′60′: Otso Koskinen on the scoresheet for Lahti, making it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
36. 61′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
37. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Lahti 5–1 Turku PS · Otso Koskinen
38. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Turku PS · On: Eetu Turkki · Off: Abdoulie Tamba
39. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Turku PS · On: Atte Sihvonen · Off: Tomi Vakiparta
40. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Turku PS · On: Joel Ahen · Off: Marius Konkkola
41. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lahti · On: Armend Kabashi · Off: Erik Andersson
42. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lahti · On: Joel Lehtonen · Off: Daniel Heikkinen
43. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lahti · On: Neemias Benavenuto Barbosa · Off: Yohan Cassubie Corrected
44. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lahti · On: Neemias Benavenuto Barbosa · Off: Tofol Montiel
45. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Lahti · On: Ahmed Babiker · Off: José Müller
46. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Armend Kabashi · Lahti
47. FTFULL TIME Lahti 5–1 Turku PS
48. FTLahti 5–1 Turku PS · Lahti win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.