KuPS v VPS prediction · Veikkausliiga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

KuPS 2–0 VPS KUPS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KuPS win~~57%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KuPS win at 57%.
1′KICK-OFF KuPS v VPS
2′Little has changed for our model: KuPS 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–25–19
4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Arttu Lötjönen · KuPS
11′Jaime Moreno scores for KuPS on 11′. 0–0 · 54–27–19
12′We said KuPS at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–6
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' KuPS 1–0 VPS · Jaime Moreno (penalty)
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' KuPS win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Casper Holmelund · VPS
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
34′We said KuPS at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' KuPS 2–0 VPS
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' KuPS win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
35′Bob Nii Armah scores for KuPS on 34′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' KuPS win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME KuPS 2–0 VPS
45′SECOND HALF KuPS 2–0 VPS
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' VPS · On: Henri Salomaa · Off: Casper Holmelund Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' VPS · On: Wilson Samake · Off: Xavier Odhiambo Corrected
51′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jayden Turfkruier · VPS
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KuPS · On: Saikou Touray · Off: Petteri Pennanen Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' KuPS · On: Gustav Engvall · Off: Samuel Pasanen Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' VPS · On: Simon Lindholm · Off: Joonas Vahtera Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' VPS · On: Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi · Off: Antti-Ville Raisanen Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' KuPS · On: Julius Eskesen · Off: Bob Nii Armah Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' KuPS · On: Piotr Parzyszek · Off: Jaime Moreno Corrected
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Valentin Gasc · KuPS
79′We said KuPS at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' VPS · On: Dren terrnava · Off: Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' KuPS · On: Akseli Puukko · Off: Saku Savolainen Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Dren terrnava · VPS
FTFULL TIME KuPS 2–0 VPS
FTKuPS 2–0 VPS · KuPS win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KuPS are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KuPS 57%, draw 24%, VPS 19%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on KuPS v VPSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

KuPS win57%

Draw24%

VPS win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 28

VenueSavon Sanomat Areena

RefereeAntti Munukka

Line-ups

KuPS

4-2-3-1

VPS

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KuPS

VPS

3Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 12 Oct · Veikkausliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	KuPS	27	+15	48
6	VPS	27	0	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

KuPS

4-2-3-1

1 J. Kreidl

6 S. Savolainen

33 T. Hamalainen

23 A. Lotjonen

25 C. Antwi

10 V. R. Gasc

14 S. Pasanen

21 J. Luyeye-Lutumba

8 P. Pennanen

24 B. Armah

11 J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

Coach · Miika Nuutinen

Substitutes

12 · H. Riihimaki

29 · A. Puukko

3 · S. Heiskanen

22 · S. Touray

34 · J. Eskesen

16 · T. Jyry

15 · A. Aiki

20 · P. Parzyszek

9 · G. Engvall

VPS

3-4-1-2

41 M. Jalloh

2 L. Mane

6 E. Okereke

23 M. Niemi

27 K. Kouassivi-Benissan

34 A. Raisanen

8 P. Lima

7 J. Turfkruier

30 J. Vahtera

20 X. Odhiambo

9 C. Holmelund

Coach · Jussi Nuorela

Substitutes

1 · A. Piispa

24 · Y. Daoussi

13 · O. Ogunniyi

14 · S. Lindholm

3 · R. Simpson

17 · D. Terrnava

25 · H. Salomaa

11 · J. Muzinga

29 · W. Samake

Our number · kups winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 10:09 · locked at kick-off

57% The market59%

Us57%

~~Market~~59%

We make KuPS a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KuPS v VPS~~1.68 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 48 v 39~~3 v 6

~~The market · KuPS win~~59% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KuPS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KuPS win	57%	59%	−2
Draw	24%	23%	+1
VPS win	19%	17%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	52%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
KuPS or draw	81%	83%	−2
KuPS clean sheet	43%	–	–
VPS clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 8.2 6.8 3.0 1 13.2 11.3 4.9 2 11.0 9.3 4.0 3 6.2 5.3 2.3 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KuPS down, VPS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,012 Veikkausliiga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 164 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KuPS at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). VPS away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for KuPS, 0.86 for VPS. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VPS 0–2 KUP · KUP 3–1 VPS · VPS 1–1 KUP · KUP 0–0 VPS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 Aug

KUPS

LDDWLL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

VPS

LWLLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Champion Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	28	+14	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	+21	51
3	KuPS	27	+15	48
4	Gnistan	28	+3	42
5	AC Oulu	28	−2	40
6	VPS	27	0	39

The competition's standings before kick-off.

KuPS v VPS

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

KuPS

VPS

Rest & schedule

KuPS

VPS

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

KuPS

VPS

Match statistics

Line-ups

KuPS

VPS

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 Aug

The table