KuPS v Gnistan prediction · Veikkausliiga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KuPSDrawGnistan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · KuPS 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KuPS are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KuPS 59%, draw 22%, Gnistan 19%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on KuPS v GnistanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

KuPS win59%

Draw22%

Gnistan win19%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 17:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 30

VenueVare Areena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KuPS

Gnistan

7Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 24 Oct · Veikkausliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	KuPS	28	+17	51
5	Gnistan	29	+2	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kups winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market61%

Us59%

~~Market~~61%

We make KuPS a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KuPS v Gnistan~~1.89 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 51 v 42~~3 v 5

~~The market · KuPS win~~61% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KuPS win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KuPS win	59%	61%	−2
Draw	22%	22%	0
Gnistan win	19%	17%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
KuPS or draw	81%	83%	−2
KuPS clean sheet	39%	–	–
Gnistan clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 6.1 5.5 2.7 1 11.1 10.4 4.9 2 10.4 9.7 4.6 3 6.6 6.1 2.9 4 3.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KuPS down, Gnistan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,014 Veikkausliiga matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KuPS at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gnistan away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for KuPS, 0.95 for Gnistan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GNI 1–1 KUP · GNI 0–1 KUP · KUP 1–0 GNI · KUP 1–1 GNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept

KUPS

DDWLLW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

GNISTAN

WDDLLL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 3–4

The table

2026 · Champion Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	29	+15	55
2	HJK Helsinki	28	+21	51
3	KuPS	28	+17	51
4	AC Oulu	29	−1	43
5	Gnistan	29	+2	42
6	VPS	29	−3	39

The competition's standings before kick-off.

KuPS v Gnistan

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

KuPS

Gnistan

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept

The table