Inter Turku v KuPS prediction · Veikkausliiga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Inter Turku 1–0 KuPS INTER TURKU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Turku win~~36%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Turku win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inter Turku was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
1′KICK-OFF Inter Turku v KuPS
5′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Luka Kuittinen · Inter Turku
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Eeli Kiiskilä · Inter Turku
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Clinton Antwi · KuPS
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Inter Turku win 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Inter Turku 0–0 KuPS
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Valentin Gasc · KuPS
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Inter Turku win 28%)
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' KuPS · On: Ayman Aiki · Off: Bob Nii Armah
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' KuPS
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Brahima Magassa · KuPS
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' KuPS · On: Taneli Hämäläinen · Off: Tommi Jyry
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Inter Turku · On: Herman Sjögrell · Off: Lauri Laine
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Inter Turku 1–0 KuPS
78′⚽ GOAL · 79' Inter Turku 1–0 KuPS · Clinton Degol Jephta
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' KuPS · On: Piotr Parzyszek · Off: Jaime Moreno
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' KuPS · On: Julius Eskesen · Off: Saikou Touray
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' KuPS · On: Saku Savolainen · Off: Akseli Puukko
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Inter Turku · On: Johannes Yli-Kokko · Off: Eeli Kiiskilä
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Miika Nuutinen · KuPS
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Inter Turku · On: Jean Botué · Off: Alie Conteh
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Inter Turku · On: Iiro Järvinen · Off: Jasse Tuominen
FTFULL TIME Inter Turku 1–0 KuPS
FTInter Turku 1–0 KuPS · Inter Turku win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Inter Turku win36%

Draw29%

KuPS win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueVeritas Stadium

RefereeMohammad Al-Emara

Line-ups

Inter Turku

4-3-3

KuPS

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Inter Turku

KuPS

4Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	26	+14	49
2	KuPS	26	+16	48

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Inter Turku

4-3-3

1 E. Huuhtanen

5 A. Granlund

22 L. Kuittinen

6 R. Ivanov

2 J. Niska

9 J. Tuominen

14 J. Laine

35 E. Kiiskila

28 L. Laine

10 A. Conteh

16 C. Jephta

Coach · Vesa-Pekka Vasara

Substitutes

12 · E. Vuorjoki

30 · Y. Amankwah

3 · J. Hamalainen

8 · J. Yli-Kokko

19 · I. Jarvinen

24 · J. Tauriainen

11 · J. Botue

7 · H. Sjogrell

33 · M. Suso

KuPS

4-2-3-1

1 J. Kreidl

29 A. Puukko

28 B. Magassa

23 A. Lotjonen

25 C. Antwi

10 V. R. Gasc

8 P. Pennanen

24 B. Armah

16 T. Jyry

22 S. Touray

11 J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

Coach · Miika Nuutinen

Substitutes

12 · H. Riihimaki

6 · S. Savolainen

33 · T. Hamalainen

34 · J. Eskesen

14 · S. Pasanen

13 · N. Kujasalo

21 · J. Luyeye-Lutumba

15 · A. Aiki

20 · P. Parzyszek

Our number · inter turku winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

36% The market44%

Us36%

~~Market~~44%

We make Inter Turku a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · inter turku win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Turku win	36%	44%	−8
Draw	29%	29%	0
KuPS win	35%	27%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−5
Inter Turku or draw	65%	73%	−7
Inter Turku clean sheet	34%	–	–
KuPS clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.4 11.9 6.6 2.4 1 12.1 13.3 7.2 2.7 2 6.8 7.3 4.0 3 2.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Turku down, KuPS across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,004 Veikkausliiga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.6% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 2.47 goals a meeting; 8 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter Turku at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). KuPS away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Inter Turku, 1.10 for KuPS. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.47

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 17

~~Both scored~~11 of 17

~~Last meetings~~INT 1–0 KUP · KUP 1–1 INT · KUP 3–2 INT · INT 0–3 KUP

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga

INTER TURKU

DWLWWD0–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

KUPS

LLDDWL2–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	26	+14	49
2	KuPS	26	+16	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	+16	45
4	Gnistan	26	+8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	−2	37
6	Lahti	26	+5	36
7	VPS	26	−1	36
8	Ilves	26	+4	35
9	Turku PS	26	0	32
10	SJK	26	−6	27
11	FF Jaro	26	−27	20
12	Mariehamn	26	−27	18