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Inter Turku v AC Oulu

Inter Turku
1–2Full time
AC Oulu

Veikkausliiga · SAT 17 OCT · Veritas Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
Inter Turku 1–2 AC Oulu INTER TURKU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Inter Turku win57%
The market said69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.058
The market’s Brier score1.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Turku win at 57%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Inter Turku was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–25–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Inter Turku v AC Oulu
  4. 9′We said Inter Turku at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–45
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Inter Turku 0–1 AC Oulu
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 29% now
  7. 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' AC Oulu win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Inter Turku win 29%)
  8. 10′AC Oulu find the net on 9′. 0–0 · 55–27–18
  9. 10′GOAL DISALLOWED · 10' AC Oulu
  10. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 55% now
  11. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Inter Turku win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was AC Oulu win 18%)
  12. 31′We said Inter Turku at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–28–51
  13. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 20–28–51
  14. 31′AC Oulu score on 31′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–28–51
  15. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Inter Turku 0–1 AC Oulu
  16. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 20% now
  17. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' AC Oulu win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Inter Turku win 20%)
  18. 34′We said Inter Turku at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–52
  19. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Inter Turku 0–1 AC Oulu
  21. 46′We said Inter Turku at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–57
  22. 46′HALF-TIME Inter Turku 0–1 AC Oulu
  23. 56′Inter Turku have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 10–27–63
  24. 58′We said Inter Turku at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–64
  25. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Inter Turku · On: Johannes Yli-Kokko · Off: Jasse Tuominen
  26. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Inter Turku · On: Herman Sjögrell · Off: Lauri Laine
  27. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
  28. 70′We said Inter Turku at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–22–74
  29. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' AC Oulu · On: Roope Riski · Off: Rasmus Karjalainen
  30. 71′Inter Turku have had 12 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  31. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' AC Oulu · On: Juuso Mäkeläinen · Off: Joel lotvonen
  32. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Inter Turku 1–1 AC Oulu
  33. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 23% now
  34. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was AC Oulu win 10%)
  35. 75′Inter Turku level it on 74′ through Herman Sjögrell. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–69–10
  36. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
  37. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Inter Turku · On: Iiro Järvinen · Off: Eeli Kiiskilä
  38. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' AC Oulu · On: Lamine Ghezali · Off: Elias Kallio
  39. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Inter Turku · On: Julius Tauriainen · Off: Albin Granlund
  40. 86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' AC Oulu
  41. 88′A red card for AC Oulu on 86′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 7–90–3
  42. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Inter Turku win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
  43. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo · AC Oulu
  44. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' AC Oulu · On: Johannes Pentti · Off: Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
  45. 90′Inter Turku have had 16 attempts to 7 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 5–92–2
  46. 91′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  47. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Inter Turku · On: Jean Botué · Off: Janne-Pekka Laine
  48. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Inter Turku 1–2 AC Oulu
  49. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' AC Oulu win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
  50. 93′Juuso Mäkeläinen scores for AC Oulu on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
  51. 95′Full time, 1–2. We called Inter Turku at 57% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  52. FTFULL TIME Inter Turku 1–2 AC Oulu
  53. FTInter Turku 1–2 AC Oulu · Inter Turku win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Turku are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Turku 57%, draw 25%, AC Oulu 18%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Inter Turku v AC OuluBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inter Turku win57%
Draw25%
AC Oulu win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 28

VenueVeritas Stadium

RefereeOliver Reitala

Line-ups

Inter Turku

4-3-3

AC Oulu

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Turku

AC Oulu

6Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Veikkausliiga

Last match: 12 Oct · Veikkausliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Champion Group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Inter Turku27+1552
6AC Oulu27−337

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Inter Turku

4-3-3

1 E. Huuhtanen

5 A. Granlund

22 L. Kuittinen

6 R. Ivanov

2 J. Niska

9 J. Tuominen

14 J. Laine

35 E. Kiiskila

28 L. Laine

10 A. Conteh

16 C. Jephta

Coach · Vesa-Pekka Vasara

Substitutes

12 · E. Vuorjoki

30 · Y. Amankwah

3 · J. Hamalainen

8 · J. Yli-Kokko

19 · I. Jarvinen

24 · J. Tauriainen

11 · J. Botue

7 · H. Sjogrell

33 · M. Suso

AC Oulu

4-4-2

13 M. Santos

16 O. Kemppainen

5 M. Pitkanen

66 J. Pirinen

18 A. Cassama

36 J. Lotvonen

25 M. Arsalo

21 I. Mendolin

27 E. Kallio

10 C. Triana

7 R. Karjalainen

Coach · Mikko Isokangas

Substitutes

12 · J. Pentti

23 · S. Ala-Iso

29 · S. Silander

2 · S. Sipola

3 · A. Lietsa

30 · J. Makelainen

19 · J. Omotayo

9 · R. Riski

11 · L. Ghezali

Our number · inter turku winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:36 · locked at kick-off
57% The market69%
Us57%
Market69%

We make Inter Turku a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Inter Turku v AC Oulu1.64 – 0.79
Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 AugW4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 52 v 371 v 6
The market · Inter Turku win69% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 15:04
Our probability · Inter Turku win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Inter Turku win57%69%−12
Draw25%21%+4
AC Oulu win18%11%+7
Over 2.5 goals44%48%−4
Both teams to score44%41%+3
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals23%28%−5
Inter Turku or draw82%89%−7
Inter Turku clean sheet46%––
AC Oulu clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%
0123450 9.1 7.1 2.8 1 14.5 11.3 4.5 2 11.7 9.1 3.6 3 6.4 5.0 4 2.7 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Turku down, AC Oulu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsACO 0–1 INT · ACO 2–3 INT · INT 0–0 ACO · INT 2–1 ACO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 Aug

INTER TURKU

WLWWDW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

AC OULU

DLLLWL0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–4

The table

2026 · Champion Group
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Inter Turku27+1552
2HJK Helsinki27+1748
3KuPS27+1548
4Gnistan27+742
5VPS27039
6AC Oulu27−337

The competition's standings before kick-off.