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Model 1.2

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Ilves v SJK

Ilves
2–0Full time
SJK

Veikkausliiga · SAT 17 OCT · Tammela Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Ilves 2–0 SJK ILVES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ilves win50%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.383
The market’s Brier score0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ilves win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ilves 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–22–28
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ilves v SJK
  4. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Stanislav Baranov · Ilves
  5. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' F. Constantini · SJK
  6. 41′SJK have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–32–26
  7. 42′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
  8. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Samuel Friday James · SJK
  9. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Anton Popovitch · Ilves
  10. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Ilves 1–0 SJK
  11. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
  12. 43′Teemu Hytönen scores for Ilves on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
  13. 44′PENALTY MISSED · 43' Teemu Hytönen · Ilves
  14. 45′43′: Teemu Hytönen on the scoresheet for Ilves. 1–0 · 74–18–8
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Ilves 1–0 SJK
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Ilves 1–0 SJK
  17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ilves · On: Elias Tamminen · Off: Teemu Hytönen
  18. 48′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
  19. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' K. Nwanege · SJK
  20. 52′SJK have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–6
  21. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SJK · On: Topias Töllinen · Off: Salim Giabo Yussif
  22. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SJK · On: T. Kangaskokko · Off: Leon Vesterbacka
  23. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SJK · On: Eetu Mömmö · Off: Apostolos Vellios
  24. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ilves · On: Yiandro Raap · Off: Oskari Multala
  25. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SJK · On: Murilo Henrique de Araujo Santos · Off: Elias Mastokangas
  26. 67′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  27. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  28. 70′12 shots for SJK, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
  29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ilves · On: Jesse Kilo · Off: Stanislav Baranov
  30. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ilves · On: Hamidou Coulibaly · Off: Yacouba Sacko
  31. 76′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SJK · On: Aziz Cisse · Off: Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
  33. 82′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  34. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
  35. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Elias Tamminen · Ilves
  36. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ilves · On: Franck Régis Ehui Kouakou · Off: Kalle Wallius
  37. 89′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  38. 92′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Ilves 2–0 SJK
  40. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  41. 93′2–0 at the end. Our 50% on Ilves comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  42. FTFULL TIME Ilves 2–0 SJK
  43. FTIlves 2–0 SJK · Ilves win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ilves are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ilves 50%, draw 22%, SJK 28%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Ilves v SJKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ilves win50%
Draw22%
SJK win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueTammela Stadium

Line-ups

Ilves

3-4-2-1

SJK

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ilves

SJK

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Veikkausliiga

Last match: 9 Oct · Veikkausliiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Relegation group

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Ilves26+435
4SJK26−627

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ilves

3-4-2-1

12 F. Krkalic

24 V. Kumpu

16 T. Miettunen

3 M. Rale

19 G. Bamba

14 A. Popovitch

33 Y. Sacko

13 K. Wallius

22 O. Multala

17 S. Baranov

9 T. Hytonen

Coach · Camilo Speranza

Substitutes

31 · R. Leislahti

72 · A. Rasanen

25 · S. Suvanne

27 · F. Kouakou

6 · Y. Raap

28 · J. Kilo

8 · M. Stjopin

45 · E. Tamminen

11 · H. Coulibaly

SJK

3-4-1-2

60 S. James

28 K. Nwanege

2 F. Costantini

5 O. Vaisto

6 S. Yussif

48 A. Traore

8 A. Bostrom

22 L. Vesterbacka

19 E. Mastokangas

27 A. Vellios

7 Kelwin

Coach · Jarkko Wiss

Substitutes

35 · J. Viitala

1 · R. Paunio

14 · Murilo Henrique

37 · T. Tollinen

54 · T. Kangaskokko

9 · J. Streng

15 · E. Mommo

51 · A. Cisse

43 · S. Bagayogo

Our number · ilves winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off
50% The market49%
Us50%
Market49%

We make Ilves a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ilves v SJK1.94 – 1.42
Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 21 AugW3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 35 v 272 v 4
The market · Ilves win49% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 11:40
Our probability · Ilves win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 50% now. The market has gone from 46% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ilves win50%49%+1
Draw22%24%−2
SJK win28%27%+1
Over 2.5 goals65%61%+4
Both teams to score64%63%+1
Over 1.5 goals84%81%+3
Over 3.5 goals43%40%+3
Ilves or draw72%73%−1
Ilves clean sheet25%––
SJK clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%
0123450 3.6 5.1 3.6 1 6.8 9.5 6.7 3.2 2 6.5 9.1 6.4 3.1 3 4.2 5.9 4.1 4 2.1 2.9 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ilves down, SJK across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored9 of 10
Last meetingsILV 2–2 SJK · SJK 1–1 ILV · ILV 3–1 SJK · ILV 3–3 SJK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 21 Aug

ILVES

LLWWWD0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

SJK

LDDDWW1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Relegation group
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lahti26+536
2Ilves26+435
3Turku PS26032
4SJK26−627
5FF Jaro26−2720
6Mariehamn26−2718

The competition's standings before kick-off.