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Ilves v SJK
Ilves
SJKVeikkausliiga · SAT 17 OCT · Tammela Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ilves win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Ilves 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–22–28
- 1′KICK-OFF Ilves v SJK
- 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Stanislav Baranov · Ilves
- 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' F. Constantini · SJK
- 41′SJK have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–32–26
- 42′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Samuel Friday James · SJK
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Anton Popovitch · Ilves
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Ilves 1–0 SJK
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
- 43′Teemu Hytönen scores for Ilves on 43′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
- 44′PENALTY MISSED · 43' Teemu Hytönen · Ilves
- 45′43′: Teemu Hytönen on the scoresheet for Ilves. 1–0 · 74–18–8
- 45′HALF-TIME Ilves 1–0 SJK
- 45′SECOND HALF Ilves 1–0 SJK
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ilves · On: Elias Tamminen · Off: Teemu Hytönen
- 48′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' K. Nwanege · SJK
- 52′SJK have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–6
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SJK · On: Topias Töllinen · Off: Salim Giabo Yussif
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SJK · On: T. Kangaskokko · Off: Leon Vesterbacka
- 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' SJK · On: Eetu Mömmö · Off: Apostolos Vellios
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ilves · On: Yiandro Raap · Off: Oskari Multala
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SJK · On: Murilo Henrique de Araujo Santos · Off: Elias Mastokangas
- 67′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
- 70′12 shots for SJK, 4 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 81–16–3
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ilves · On: Jesse Kilo · Off: Stanislav Baranov
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ilves · On: Hamidou Coulibaly · Off: Yacouba Sacko
- 76′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SJK · On: Aziz Cisse · Off: Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
- 82′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Elias Tamminen · Ilves
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Ilves · On: Franck Régis Ehui Kouakou · Off: Kalle Wallius
- 89′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 92′We said Ilves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Ilves 2–0 SJK
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Ilves win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 93′2–0 at the end. Our 50% on Ilves comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Ilves 2–0 SJK
- FTIlves 2–0 SJK · Ilves win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassIlves are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Ilves 50%, draw 22%, SJK 28%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Ilves win50%
SJK win28%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00
RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27
VenueTammela Stadium
Match timeline
All events
IlvesMIN
SJKEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Ilves
3-4-2-1
SJK
3-4-1-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ilves
SJK
Last match: 10 Oct · Veikkausliiga
Last match: 9 Oct · Veikkausliiga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Ilves
3-4-2-1
12 F. Krkalic
24 V. Kumpu
16 T. Miettunen
3 M. Rale
19 G. Bamba
14 A. Popovitch
33 Y. Sacko
13 K. Wallius
22 O. Multala
17 S. Baranov
9 T. Hytonen
Coach · Camilo Speranza
Substitutes
31 · R. Leislahti
72 · A. Rasanen
25 · S. Suvanne
27 · F. Kouakou
6 · Y. Raap
28 · J. Kilo
8 · M. Stjopin
45 · E. Tamminen
11 · H. Coulibaly
SJK
3-4-1-2
60 S. James
28 K. Nwanege
2 F. Costantini
5 O. Vaisto
6 S. Yussif
48 A. Traore
8 A. Bostrom
22 L. Vesterbacka
19 E. Mastokangas
27 A. Vellios
7 Kelwin
Coach · Jarkko Wiss
Substitutes
35 · J. Viitala
1 · R. Paunio
14 · Murilo Henrique
37 · T. Tollinen
54 · T. Kangaskokko
9 · J. Streng
15 · E. Mommo
51 · A. Cisse
43 · S. Bagayogo
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Ilves
3-4-2-1
12 F. Krkalic
24 V. Kumpu
16 T. Miettunen
3 M. Rale
19 G. Bamba
14 A. Popovitch
33 Y. Sacko
13 K. Wallius
22 O. Multala
17 S. Baranov
9 T. Hytonen
Coach · Camilo Speranza
Substitutes
31 · R. Leislahti
72 · A. Rasanen
25 · S. Suvanne
27 · F. Kouakou
6 · Y. Raap
28 · J. Kilo
8 · M. Stjopin
45 · E. Tamminen
11 · H. Coulibaly
SJK
3-4-1-2
60 S. James
28 K. Nwanege
2 F. Costantini
5 O. Vaisto
6 S. Yussif
48 A. Traore
8 A. Bostrom
22 L. Vesterbacka
19 E. Mastokangas
27 A. Vellios
7 Kelwin
Coach · Jarkko Wiss
Substitutes
35 · J. Viitala
1 · R. Paunio
14 · Murilo Henrique
37 · T. Tollinen
54 · T. Kangaskokko
9 · J. Streng
15 · E. Mommo
51 · A. Cisse
43 · S. Bagayogo
We make Ilves a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 49%, 50% now. The market has gone from 46% to 49% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilves win | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | −2 |
| SJK win | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 61% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 40% | +3 |
| Ilves or draw | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Ilves clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
| SJK clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 21 Aug
ILVES
SJK
The table
2026 · Relegation group| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lahti | 26 | +5 | 36 |
| 2 | Ilves | 26 | +4 | 35 |
| 3 | Turku PS | 26 | 0 | 32 |
| 4 | SJK | 26 | −6 | 27 |
| 5 | FF Jaro | 26 | −27 | 20 |
| 6 | Mariehamn | 26 | −27 | 18 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Lahti
Turku PS
FF Jaro
Mariehamn