HJK Helsinki v KuPS prediction · Veikkausliiga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HJK HelsinkiDrawKuPS

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · HJK Helsinki 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HJK Helsinki are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HJK Helsinki 40%, draw 25%, KuPS 35%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on HJK Helsinki v KuPSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

HJK Helsinki win40%

Draw25%

KuPS win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 29

VenueBolt Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HJK Helsinki

KuPS

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Veikkausliiga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	HJK Helsinki	28	+21	51
3	KuPS	28	+17	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hjk helsinki winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market51%

Us40%

~~Market~~51%

We make HJK Helsinki a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HJK Helsinki v KuPS~~1.47 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 51 v 51~~2 v 3

~~The market · HJK Helsinki win~~51% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HJK Helsinki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HJK Helsinki win	40%	51%	−11
Draw	25%	25%	0
KuPS win	35%	24%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
HJK Helsinki or draw	65%	76%	−11
HJK Helsinki clean sheet	26%	–	–
KuPS clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.2 8.1 5.5 2.5 1 8.8 11.7 7.8 3.6 2 6.4 8.5 5.7 2.6 3 3.2 4.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HJK Helsinki down, KuPS across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,016 Veikkausliiga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HJK Helsinki at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). KuPS away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for HJK Helsinki, 1.35 for KuPS. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KUP 0–0 HJK · HJK 0–4 KUP · KUP 1–1 HJK · HJK 0–2 KUP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept

HJK HELSINKI

WDDWWW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 4–3 · 4–0

KUPS

DDWLLW1–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Champion Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	29	+15	55
2	HJK Helsinki	28	+21	51
3	KuPS	28	+17	51
4	AC Oulu	29	−1	43
5	Gnistan	29	+2	42
6	VPS	29	−3	39

The competition's standings before kick-off.

HJK Helsinki v KuPS

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Pre-match prediction

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Rest & schedule

HJK Helsinki

KuPS

The game in numbers

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Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 8 Sept

The table