HJK Helsinki v Gnistan prediction · Veikkausliiga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

HJK Helsinki 4–0 Gnistan HJK HELSINKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HJK Helsinki win~~57%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.273

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.195

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HJK Helsinki win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: HJK Helsinki 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
1′KICK-OFF HJK Helsinki v Gnistan
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Gabriel Europaeus · Gnistan
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Artur Atarah · Gnistan
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' HJK Helsinki win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
45′HALF-TIME HJK Helsinki 0–0 Gnistan
45′SECOND HALF HJK Helsinki 0–0 Gnistan
46′We said HJK Helsinki at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 45–33–21
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' HJK Helsinki · On: Liam Möller · Off: Teemu Pukki
48′We said HJK Helsinki at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–34–21
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Sergey Eremenko · Gnistan
50′We said HJK Helsinki at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' HJK Helsinki 1–0 Gnistan
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' HJK Helsinki win: 57% at kick-off, 79% now
51′Mads Borchers scores for HJK Helsinki on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
53′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Gnistan
54′We said HJK Helsinki at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Edmund Arko-Mensah · Gnistan
55′Gnistan are down to ten from 53′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 80–16–4
59′We said HJK Helsinki at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gnistan · On: Roman Eremenko · Off: Joakim Latonen
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gnistan · On: Danny Pérez · Off: Saku Ylätupa
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' HJK Helsinki 2–0 Gnistan
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' HJK Helsinki win: 57% at kick-off, 96% now
60′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–0
61′60′: Santeri Haarala on the scoresheet for HJK Helsinki, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–0
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' HJK Helsinki win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Gnistan · On: Juhani Ojala · Off: Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou Corrected
65′We said HJK Helsinki at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' HJK Helsinki 3–0 Gnistan
68′HJK Helsinki ahead on 66′ through Mads Borchers. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' HJK Helsinki · On: Lucas Lingman · Off: Santeri Haarala
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' HJK Helsinki · On: Joona Veteli · Off: Pyry Mentu
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' HJK Helsinki · On: Martin Kirilov · Off: Alexander Ring
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Gnistan · On: Otto Hannula · Off: Artur Atarah
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' HJK Helsinki · On: Till Cissokho · Off: Ville Tikkanen
92′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
92′4–0 at the end. Our 57% on HJK Helsinki comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' HJK Helsinki 4–0 Gnistan
FTFULL TIME HJK Helsinki 4–0 Gnistan
FTHJK Helsinki 4–0 Gnistan · HJK Helsinki win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HJK Helsinki are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HJK Helsinki 57%, draw 21%, Gnistan 22%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on HJK Helsinki v GnistanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

HJK Helsinki win57%

Draw21%

Gnistan win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundChampionship Group · matchday 28

VenueBolt Arena

RefereePeiman Simani

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

4-2-3-1

Gnistan

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HJK Helsinki

Gnistan

5Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · Veikkausliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	HJK Helsinki	27	+17	48
4	Gnistan	27	+7	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

4-2-3-1

1 J. Ost

13 K. Simojoki

31 M. Bogicevic

6 V. Tikkanen

14 L. Montano

8 P. Mentu

4 A. Ring

9 M. Borchers

29 S. Haarala

7 A. Cicale

20 T. Pukki

Coach · Joonas Rantanen

Substitutes

30 · J. Samooja

17 · N. Alho

3 · T. Cissokho

77 · J. Veteli

10 · L. Lingman

22 · L. Moller

32 · M. Gueye

26 · L. Lappalainen

11 · M. Kirilov

Gnistan

5-4-1

1 O. Virtanen

19 B. Milovanov

24 R. Gnanou

14 S. Eremenko

3 Ruxi

12 E. Arko-Mensah

7 A. Atarah

31 A. Jouhi

15 G. Europaeus

23 S. Ylatupa

10 J. Latonen

Coach · Jussi Leppalahti

Substitutes

95 · M. Juricka

40 · J. Ojala

67 · A. Obileye

2 · B. Dahlstrom

26 · R. Eremenko

27 · O. Hannula

11 · D. Perez

Our number · hjk helsinki winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market64%

Us57%

~~Market~~64%

We make HJK Helsinki a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HJK Helsinki v Gnistan~~2.14 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 48 v 42~~2 v 4

~~The market · HJK Helsinki win~~64% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HJK Helsinki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HJK Helsinki win	57%	64%	−7
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Gnistan win	22%	16%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Both teams to score	63%	60%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	46%	−2
HJK Helsinki or draw	78%	84%	−6
HJK Helsinki clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gnistan clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 4.3 2.7 1 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.4 2 7.7 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 5.4 6.7 4.2 4 2.9 3.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HJK Helsinki down, Gnistan across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,007 Veikkausliiga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HJK Helsinki at home: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gnistan away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for HJK Helsinki, 1.26 for Gnistan. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GNI 1–1 HJK · HJK 2–3 GNI · GNI 0–3 HJK · HJK 3–1 GNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 Aug

HJK HELSINKI

WWDDWW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 4–3

GNISTAN

DDWDDL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Champion Group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	27	+15	52
2	HJK Helsinki	27	+17	48
3	KuPS	27	+15	48
4	Gnistan	27	+7	42
5	VPS	27	0	39
6	AC Oulu	27	−3	37

The competition's standings before kick-off.

HJK Helsinki v Gnistan

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

Gnistan

Rest & schedule

HJK Helsinki

Gnistan

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

Gnistan

Match statistics

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki

Gnistan

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 31 Aug

The table