Gnistan v AC Oulu

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gnistan win at 47%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Gnistan 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
3. 2′KICK-OFF Gnistan v AC Oulu
4. 4′We said Gnistan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Gnistan 0–1 AC Oulu
6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Gnistan win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' AC Oulu win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Gnistan win 47%)
8. 6′AC Oulu score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 24–23–54
9. 10′We said Gnistan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–14–77
10. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Gnistan 0–2 AC Oulu
11. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Gnistan win: 47% at kick-off, 9% now
12. 12′AC Oulu ahead on 10′ through Iiro Mendolin. 0–2. 0–2 · 9–14–78
13. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Gnistan win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
14. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Gnistan 1–2 AC Oulu
15. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Gnistan win: 47% at kick-off, 20% now
16. 23′We said Gnistan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–24–57
17. 24′Sergey Eremenko scores for Gnistan on 22′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 19–24–57
18. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 17–25–58
19. 40′We said Gnistan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–25–61
20. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Gnistan 1–3 AC Oulu
21. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Gnistan win: 47% at kick-off, 3% now
22. 45′SECOND HALF Gnistan 1–3 AC Oulu
23. 46′We said Gnistan at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–3 · 3–9–88
24. 46′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–9–88
25. 46′45′: Rasmus Karjalainen on the scoresheet for AC Oulu, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 3–10–87
26. 46′HALF-TIME Gnistan 1–3 AC Oulu
27. 51′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 11–25–65
28. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Gnistan 2–3 AC Oulu
29. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Gnistan win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
30. 52′Gnistan pull one back on 51′ through Adam Jouhi. 2–3. 2–3 · 10–25–65
31. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Saku Ylätupa · Gnistan
32. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Gnistan · On: Artur Atarah · Off: Otto Hannula
33. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Gnistan win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
34. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Gnistan · On: Danny Pérez · Off: Saku Ylätupa
35. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AC Oulu · On: Lamine Ghezali · Off: Joel lotvonen
36. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' AC Oulu · On: Roope Riski · Off: Rasmus Karjalainen
37. 85′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
38. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Gnistan 2–4 AC Oulu
39. 86′Lamine Ghezali scores for AC Oulu on 85′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
40. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Gnistan · On: Jeff Selenge · Off: Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou
41. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Lamine Ghezali · AC Oulu
42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' AC Oulu · On: Juuso Mäkeläinen · Off: Elias Kallio Corrected
43. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' AC Oulu · On: Alex Lietsa · Off: Otto Kemppainen
44. 91′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 0–4–96
45. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Gnistan 3–4 AC Oulu
46. 92′90′: Adam Jouhi on the scoresheet for Gnistan, making it 3–4. 3–4 · 0–3–97
47. 94′3–4 at the end. Our 47% on Gnistan misses, and the record keeps it. 3–4 · 0–0–100
48. FTFULL TIME Gnistan 3–4 AC Oulu
49. FTGnistan 3–4 AC Oulu · Gnistan win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.