FF Jaro v Mariehamn prediction · Veikkausliiga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

FF Jaro 1–1 Mariehamn FF JARO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FF Jaro win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FF Jaro win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: FF Jaro was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–31
1′KICK-OFF FF Jaro v Mariehamn
2′🟨 YELLOW · 1' Tuomas Koivisto · Mariehamn
44′9 shots for FF Jaro, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 34–39–26
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was FF Jaro win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME FF Jaro 0–0 Mariehamn
45′SECOND HALF FF Jaro 0–0 Mariehamn
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
49′FF Jaro have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–42–25
53′We said FF Jaro at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–45–24
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–46–24
57′We said FF Jaro at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–22–71
57′We said FF Jaro at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–23
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' FF Jaro 0–1 Mariehamn
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Mariehamn win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 22%)
58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 58' Mariehamn
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 29% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Mariehamn win 23%)
64′We published FF Jaro at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' FF Jaro 1–0 Mariehamn
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 80% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' FF Jaro win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
65′64′: Ville Vuorinen on the scoresheet for FF Jaro, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Mariehamn · On: Jelle van der Heyden · Off: Adam Larsson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Mariehamn · On: Sebastian Dahlström · Off: Viktor Widlund
74′We published FF Jaro at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FF Jaro · On: Adam Vidjeskog · Off: Kaius Hardén
79′We said FF Jaro at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–11
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' FF Jaro 1–1 Mariehamn
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 14% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was FF Jaro win 14%)
80′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–1 · 13–76–11
80′Mariehamn level it on 79′ through an own goal by Gergő Kocsis. 1–1. 1–1 · 13–76–11
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FF Jaro · On: Joni Remesaho · Off: Ville Vuorinen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FF Jaro · On: Linus Zetterstrom · Off: Jonathan Lawson
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FF Jaro · On: Valde Löfs · Off: Jim Myrevik
91′We said FF Jaro at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' FF Jaro win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME FF Jaro 1–1 Mariehamn
FTFF Jaro 1–1 Mariehamn · FF Jaro win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FF Jaro are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FF Jaro 43%, draw 26%, Mariehamn 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on FF Jaro v MariehamnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FF Jaro win43%

Draw26%

Mariehamn win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundRelegation Group · matchday 27

VenueProject Liv Arena

Line-ups

FF Jaro

4-4-2

Mariehamn

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FF Jaro

Mariehamn

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Veikkausliiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	FF Jaro	26	−27	20
6	Mariehamn	26	−27	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FF Jaro

4-4-2

1 S. Vits

5 A. Bjonback

6 J. Brunell

4 M. Ogungbaro

19 F. O. Ness

21 J. Myrevik

25 G. Kocsis

7 J. Skau

22 K. Harden

23 J. Lawson

91 V. Vuorinen

Coach · Jens Karlsson

Substitutes

12 · J. Snellman

20 · T. Soderstrom

8 · O. Kass Kawo

16 · A. Vidjeskog

24 · V. Lofs

77 · A. Sabriye

42 · J. Remesaho

9 · L. Zetterstrom

27 · J. Vikstrom

Mariehamn

4-2-3-1

1 K. Lund

27 L. Richtner

2 N. Nurmi

5 T. Koivisto

31 S. Ngulube

11 J. Svedberg

20 E. Patut

23 V. Widlund

14 A. Bergvik

19 T. Jakobsen

7 A. Larsson

Coach · Roberth Bjorknesjo

Substitutes

12 · O. Heino

3 · A. Soiniemi

8 · J. Heyden

10 · S. Dahlstrom

64 · M. Hyvonen

43 · L. Andersson

16 · A. Huttunen

9 · W. Nunez

Our number · ff jaro winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make FF Jaro a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FF Jaro v Mariehamn~~1.44 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 18~~5 v 6

~~The market · FF Jaro win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FF Jaro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FF Jaro win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Mariehamn win	31%	33%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
FF Jaro or draw	69%	67%	+2
FF Jaro clean sheet	31%	–	–
Mariehamn clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 8.6 5.1 2.0 1 10.5 12.1 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FF Jaro down, Mariehamn across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,007 Veikkausliiga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FF Jaro at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mariehamn away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for FF Jaro, 1.19 for Mariehamn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MAR 2–0 FFJ · FFJ 3–0 MAR · FFJ 2–3 MAR · FFJ 1–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 22 Aug

FF JARO

LLLDDW0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

MARIEHAMN

WWLWLD4–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Relegation group

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lahti	26	+5	36
2	Ilves	26	+4	35
3	Turku PS	26	0	32
4	SJK	26	−6	27
5	FF Jaro	26	−27	20
6	Mariehamn	26	−27	18

The competition's standings before kick-off.

FF Jaro v Mariehamn

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

FF Jaro

Mariehamn

Rest & schedule

FF Jaro

Mariehamn

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

FF Jaro

Mariehamn

Match statistics

Line-ups

FF Jaro

Mariehamn

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga this season · since 22 Aug

The table