AC Oulu v HJK Helsinki prediction · Veikkausliiga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

AC Oulu 3–4 HJK Helsinki HJK HELSINKI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HJK Helsinki win~~51%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.356

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.319

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HJK Helsinki win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: HJK Helsinki was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 25–24–51
13′Much as we predicted: HJK Helsinki was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
16′Much as we predicted: HJK Helsinki was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–27–49
19′HJK Helsinki ahead on 20′ through Mads Borchers. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–16–75
21′We published HJK Helsinki at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 8–16–76
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 7–17–76
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' HJK Helsinki win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' AC Oulu 0–2 HJK Helsinki · Mads Borchers
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' AC Oulu 0–2 HJK Helsinki · Liam Möller
45′HALF-TIME AC Oulu 0–2 HJK Helsinki
46′SECOND HALF AC Oulu 0–2 HJK Helsinki
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' AC Oulu 1–2 HJK Helsinki · Liam Möller
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' AC Oulu 1–2 HJK Helsinki · Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Tuomas Kaukua · AC Oulu
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' AC Oulu · On: Lamine Ghezali · Off: Joel lotvonen
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' AC Oulu 1–3 HJK Helsinki · Mads Borchers
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' HJK Helsinki · On: Joona Veteli · Off: Liam Möller
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AC Oulu · On: Adramane Cassama · Off: Otto Kemppainen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AC Oulu · On: Roope Riski · Off: Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' AC Oulu 2–3 HJK Helsinki · Mads Borchers
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' AC Oulu · On: Roope Riski · Off: Camilo Jose·Triana Fragozo
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' AC Oulu 2–3 HJK Helsinki · Roope Riski
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Mikko Pitkanen · AC Oulu
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' AC Oulu 3–3 HJK Helsinki · Roope Riski
85′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Lamine Ghezali · AC Oulu
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' AC Oulu 3–3 HJK Helsinki · Mikko Pitkanen
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' AC Oulu 3–4 HJK Helsinki · Mikko Pitkanen
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' AC Oulu 3–3 HJK Helsinki · Joona Veteli
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' AC Oulu 3–4 HJK Helsinki · Joona Veteli
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' HJK Helsinki · On: Kaius Simojoki · Off: Santeri Haarala
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' HJK Helsinki · On: Mouhamed Gueye · Off: Pyry Mentu
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Juuso Mäkeläinen · AC Oulu
FTFULL TIME AC Oulu 3–4 HJK Helsinki
FTAC Oulu 3–4 HJK Helsinki · HJK Helsinki win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

AC Oulu win25%

Draw24%

HJK Helsinki win51%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueRaatin stadion

RefereeAntti Munukka

Line-ups

AC Oulu

4-4-2

HJK Helsinki

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

AC Oulu

HJK Helsinki

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	HJK Helsinki	26	+16	45
5	AC Oulu	26	−2	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AC Oulu

4-4-2

13 M. Santos

16 O. Kemppainen

5 M. Pitkanen

66 J. Pirinen

22 T. Kaukua

36 J. Lotvonen

25 M. Arsalo

21 I. Mendolin

27 E. Kallio

10 C. Triana

7 R. Karjalainen

Coach · Mikko Isokangas

Substitutes

99 · N. Schulz

2 · S. Sipola

3 · A. Lietsa

18 · A. Cassama

14 · N. Jokelainen

30 · J. Makelainen

19 · J. Omotayo

9 · R. Riski

11 · L. Ghezali

HJK Helsinki

4-3-3

1 J. Ost

17 N. Alho

31 M. Bogicevic

6 V. Tikkanen

14 L. Montano

22 L. Moller

4 A. Ring

8 P. Mentu

29 S. Haarala

9 M. Borchers

7 A. Cicale

Coach · Joonas Rantanen

Substitutes

30 · J. Samooja

24 · E. Levealahti

13 · K. Simojoki

87 · N. Kroupkin

77 · J. Veteli

10 · L. Lingman

32 · M. Gueye

20 · T. Pukki

11 · M. Kirilov

Our number · hjk helsinki winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

51% The market54%

Us51%

~~Market~~54%

We make HJK Helsinki a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hjk helsinki win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AC Oulu win	25%	22%	+3
Draw	24%	24%	−1
HJK Helsinki win	51%	54%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	56%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
AC Oulu or draw	49%	46%	+3
AC Oulu clean sheet	18%	–	–
HJK Helsinki clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.9 9.8 8.5 5.0 2.2 1 6.5 11.1 9.4 5.5 2.4 2 3.7 6.3 5.3 3.1 3 2.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AC Oulu down, HJK Helsinki across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,005 Veikkausliiga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Veikkausliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AC Oulu at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). HJK Helsinki away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for AC Oulu, 1.74 for HJK Helsinki. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 16:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 12

~~Both scored~~6 of 12

~~Last meetings~~ACO 0–1 HJK · HJK 0–1 ACO · HJK 3–1 ACO · ACO 0–4 HJK

Form · last six in Veikkausliiga

AC OULU

WDLLLW1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

HJK HELSINKI

LWWDDW2–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 6–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Inter Turku	27	+15	52
2	KuPS	27	+15	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	+16	45
4	Gnistan	26	+8	42
5	AC Oulu	26	−2	37
6	Lahti	26	+5	36
7	VPS	26	−1	36
8	Ilves	26	+4	35
9	Turku PS	26	0	32
10	SJK	26	−6	27
11	FF Jaro	26	−27	20
12	Mariehamn	26	−27	18