VIFK W v PK-35 Vantaa W prediction · Kansallinen Liiga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

VIFK W 3–1 PK-35 Vantaa W PK-35 VANTAA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PK-35 Vantaa W win~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PK-35 Vantaa W win at 70%.
9′3′: minea gronberg on the scoresheet for VIFK W. 0–0 · 15–17–68
10′Much as we predicted: PK-35 Vantaa W was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 15–17–68
11′VIFK W find the net on 8′. 0–0 · 15–17–68
12′We said PK-35 Vantaa W at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 3–0 · 75–13–12
12′⚽ GOAL · 6' VIFK W 3–0 PK-35 Vantaa W
12′⚽ GOAL · 8' VIFK W 3–0 PK-35 Vantaa W
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' PK-35 Vantaa W win: 70% at kick-off, 12% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' VIFK W win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was PK-35 Vantaa W win 68%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' PK-35 Vantaa W win: 70% at kick-off, 10% now
22′We said PK-35 Vantaa W at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–0 · 79–12–9
41′We said PK-35 Vantaa W at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–0 · 87–8–4
45′HALF-TIME VIFK W 3–1 PK-35 Vantaa W
48′A goal for PK-35 Vantaa W on 44′. 3–0 · 90–7–3
48′SECOND HALF VIFK W 3–1 PK-35 Vantaa W
50′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 75–16–9
50′⚽ GOAL · 44' VIFK W 3–1 PK-35 Vantaa W
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PK-35 Vantaa W · On: Hilla romppanen · Off: Helmi Kupila
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' VIFK W · On: alissa gustafsson · Off: A. Hotakainen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' PK-35 Vantaa W · On: elina peltokangas · Off: minttu pettinen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' PK-35 Vantaa W · On: eevi leppanen · Off: nette klingberg
74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' PK-35 Vantaa W · On: Ella Hatara · Off: emilia kupsanen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' VIFK W · On: Venla Isokoski · Off: M. Gustafson
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' PK-35 Vantaa W win: 70% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PK-35 Vantaa W · On: Melisa arifi · Off: Inga ek
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' VIFK W · On: Morgan Nall · Off: frida lindholm
92′🟨 YELLOW · 89' PK-35 Vantaa W
FTFULL TIME VIFK W 3–1 PK-35 Vantaa W
FTVIFK W 3–1 PK-35 Vantaa W · PK-35 Vantaa W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PK-35 Vantaa W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VIFK W 15%, draw 15%, PK-35 Vantaa W 70%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on VIFK W v PK-35 Vantaa WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

VIFK W win15%

Draw15%

PK-35 Vantaa W win70%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundRelegation Play-Off · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VIFK W

PK-35 Vantaa W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

Last match: 18 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	−23	7
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pk-35 vantaa w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

70% The market–

Us70%

We make PK-35 Vantaa W a 70% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VIFK W v PK-35 Vantaa W~~1.16 – 2.73

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 7~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PK-35 Vantaa W win

Published at 69%, 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VIFK W win	15%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
PK-35 Vantaa W win	70%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
VIFK W or draw	30%	–	–
VIFK W clean sheet	7%	–	–
PK-35 Vantaa W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.6%

0123450 6.2 7.6 6.8 4.7 2.71 3.0 6.1 8.6 7.7 5.2 2.92 3.8 5.0 4.4 3.0 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+VIFK W down, PK-35 Vantaa W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 700 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 4.57 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VIFK W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). PK-35 Vantaa W away: 3.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for VIFK W, 2.73 for PK-35 Vantaa W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.57

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PKV 5–1 VIF · VIF 1–1 PKV · PKV 2–1 VIF · VIF 1–3 PKV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug

VIFK W

WLLWWW3–1 · 1–5 · 3–4 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

PK-35 VANTAA W

DWWWDW2–2 · 5–1 · 6–0 · 10–0 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	14	+29	39
2	Åland United W	14	+22	28
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28
4	HPS W	14	+4	24
5	Ilves W	14	+1	22
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	−23	7
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2