KuPS W v Åland United W prediction · Kansallinen Liiga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

KuPS W 0–1 Åland United W KUPS W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KuPS W win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KuPS W win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: KuPS W 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–21–31
1′KICK-OFF KuPS W v Åland United W
45′HALF-TIME KuPS W 0–0 Åland United W
46′SECOND HALF KuPS W 0–0 Åland United W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' KuPS W win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
53′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–37–26
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Åland United W · On: inka sarjanoja · Off: Jessica Wade
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–39–26
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was KuPS W win 37%)
58′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–41–25
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' KuPS W · On: niitty hahl · Off: sanni kouva
67′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' KuPS W win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
73′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–18
78′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' KuPS W win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 64' KuPS W · On: nerea oruetxebarria · Off: Laura
80′SUBSTITUTION · 64' KuPS W · On: Aino Kröger · Off: aada nurmi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Åland United W · On: anna nurmi · Off: neela antikainen
80′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Aino Kröger · KuPS W
82′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
86′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–7
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' KuPS W win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Åland United W
90′We said KuPS W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–6–94
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' KuPS W 0–1 Åland United W
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Åland United W win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 89%)
FTFULL TIME KuPS W 0–1 Åland United W
FTKuPS W 0–1 Åland United W · KuPS W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KuPS W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KuPS W 48%, draw 20%, Åland United W 31%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on KuPS W v Åland United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

KuPS W win48%

Draw20%

Åland United W win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundChampionship playoffs · matchday 10

VenueSavon Sanomat Areena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KuPS W

Åland United W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

Last match: 17 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Åland United W	14	+22	28
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kups w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make KuPS W a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KuPS W v Åland United W~~1.95 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 28~~3 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KuPS W win

Published at 47%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KuPS W win	48%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Åland United W win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
KuPS W or draw	69%	–	–
KuPS W clean sheet	22%	–	–
Åland United W clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.7 5.5 3.7 1 6.8 8.5 6.9 3.5 2 5.9 8.7 6.6 3.4 3 3.8 5.7 4.3 2.2 4 2.8 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KuPS W down, Åland United W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 700 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KuPS W at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Åland United W away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for KuPS W, 1.53 for Åland United W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 0–2 KUP · KUP 1–3 ALA · ALA 1–6 KUP · KUP 2–1 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug

KUPS W

WWDLDW2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 5–0

ÅLAND UNITED W

LLWLWW1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	14	+29	39
2	Åland United W	14	+22	28
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28
4	HPS W	14	+4	24
5	Ilves W	14	+1	22
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	−23	7
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2