JyPK W v VIFK W prediction · Kansallinen Liiga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

JyPK W 0–2 VIFK W VIFK W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VIFK W win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.401

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VIFK W win at 49%.
7′Much as we predicted: VIFK W was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 31–21–48
26′VIFK W find the net on 22′. 0–0 · 30–26–45
27′We published VIFK W at 49%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
27′VIFK W find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
27′⚽ GOAL · 22' JyPK W 0–1 VIFK W
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' VIFK W win: 49% at kick-off, 70% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 11–18–71
33′🟨 YELLOW · 27' aino varjoranta · JyPK W
45′HALF-TIME JyPK W 0–1 VIFK W
46′SECOND HALF JyPK W 0–1 VIFK W
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JyPK W · On: Neea tahtisaari · Off: hilma kunttu
51′We published VIFK W at 49%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 2–6–93
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' JyPK W 0–2 VIFK W
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' VIFK W win: 49% at kick-off, 93% now
55′minea gronberg scores for VIFK W on 48′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–93
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JyPK W · On: Ilona auvinen · Off: nanna savolainen
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' JyPK W · On: Viivi Neuvonen · Off: meeri karjalainen
61′We published VIFK W at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' VIFK W · On: alissa gustafsson · Off: M. Gustafson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' VIFK W · On: Venla Isokoski · Off: A. Hotakainen
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' VIFK W win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
79′🟨 YELLOW · 76' VIFK W
84′We published VIFK W at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
87′SUBSTITUTION · 79' JyPK W · On: netta hanhimaki · Off: Aune Lappalainen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 79' JyPK W · On: nea tenno · Off: iiris mihari
87′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ilona auvinen · JyPK W
FTFULL TIME JyPK W 0–2 VIFK W
FTJyPK W 0–2 VIFK W · VIFK W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VIFK W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JyPK W 31%, draw 20%, VIFK W 49%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on JyPK W v VIFK WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

JyPK W win31%

Draw20%

VIFK W win49%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundRelegation Play-Off · matchday 9

VenueHarjun Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JyPK W

VIFK W

13Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

Last match: 3 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vifk w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make VIFK W a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JyPK W v VIFK W~~1.52 – 1.97

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D0 L3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JyPK W win	31%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
VIFK W win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
JyPK W or draw	51%	–	–
JyPK W clean sheet	15%	–	–
VIFK W clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.7 6.8 6.0 4.0 2.1 1 5.5 8.3 8.5 5.6 2.9 2 3.7 6.8 6.4 4.1 2.1 3 3.6 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JyPK W down, VIFK W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 694 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.2% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JyPK W at home: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). VIFK W away: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for JyPK W, 1.97 for VIFK W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VIF 3–1 JYP · VIF 3–1 JYP · JYP 0–1 VIF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 22 Aug

JYPK W

LLLLLL1–6 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 2–3 · 1–4

VIFK W

LWLLWW2–3 · 3–1 · 1–5 · 3–4 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	14	+29	39
2	Åland United W	14	+22	28
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28
4	HPS W	14	+4	24
5	Ilves W	14	+1	22
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	−23	7
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2