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Ilves W v HPS W

Ilves W
0–4Full time
HPS W

Kansallinen Liiga · SUN 18 OCT · Kaupin urheilupuisto

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Ilves W 0–4 HPS W HPS W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said HPS W win50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.378

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said HPS W win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: HPS W 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 29–21–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ilves W v HPS W
  4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' HPS W
  5. 26′We said HPS W at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 10–18–72
  6. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Ilves W 0–1 HPS W
  7. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' HPS W win: 50% at kick-off, 72% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–18–72
  9. 32′tessa perttula scores for HPS W on 26′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–18–72
  10. 36′We said HPS W at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  11. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Ilves W 0–2 HPS W
  12. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' HPS W win: 50% at kick-off, 91% now
  13. 39′HPS W score on 36′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–91
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Ilves W 0–2 HPS W
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Ilves W 0–2 HPS W
  16. 57′We said HPS W at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
  17. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ilves W 0–3 HPS W
  18. 65′We said HPS W at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  19. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' HPS W win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  20. 68′HPS W find the net on 63′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  21. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' HPS W · On: olivia kahre · Off: Henni Rinkinen
  22. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' HPS W · On: oona jaaskelainen · Off: tessa perttula
  23. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 61' HPS W · On: Aino Lamberg · Off: fanni sinivuori
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ilves W · On: anna tarkkanen · Off: anela ljesnjanin
  25. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ilves W · On: Werna Fomenko · Off: aino rasinen
  26. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ilves W · On: Lotta lahteenmaki · Off: Heta Olmala
  27. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 77' HPS W
  28. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' HPS W · On: Moona talka · Off: Eevi paakkari
  29. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' HPS W · On: Milla punsar · Off: Tao Stark
  30. 93′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  31. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ilves W · On: iida kallio · Off: Reeta pirila
  32. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ilves W · On: maija jamsa · Off: amelia luotonen
  33. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Ilves W 0–4 HPS W
  34. FTFULL TIME Ilves W 0–4 HPS W
  35. FTIlves W 0–4 HPS W · HPS W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HPS W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ilves W 29%, draw 21%, HPS W 50%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Ilves W v HPS WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ilves W win29%
Draw21%
HPS W win50%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundChampionship playoffs · matchday 9

VenueKaupin urheilupuisto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ilves W

HPS W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

Last match: 4 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4HPS W14+424
5Ilves W14+122

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hps w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market–
Us50%

We make HPS W a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ilves W v HPS W1.42 – 1.93
Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 21 AugW1 D1 L4 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 22 v 245 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ilves W win29%––
Draw21%––
HPS W win50%––
Over 2.5 goals64%––
Both teams to score63%––
Over 1.5 goals83%––
Over 3.5 goals43%––
Ilves W or draw50%––
Ilves W clean sheet15%––
HPS W clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%
0123450 3.1 7.6 6.6 4.2 2.1 1 5.8 8.9 9.0 5.8 2.8 2 3.6 6.7 6.3 4.0 3 3.2 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ilves W down, HPS W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored2 of 10
Last meetingsHPS 1–0 ILV · HPS 1–2 ILV · ILV 1–0 HPS · HPS 1–0 ILV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 21 Aug

ILVES W

LLLLWD1–2 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 3–3

HPS W

DWWDWW3–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1HJK W14+2939
2Åland United W14+2228
3KuPS W14+1028
4HPS W14+424
5Ilves W14+122
6IF Gnistan14−1113
7PK-35 Vantaa W14−237
8VIFK W14−322

The competition's standings before kick-off.