IF Gnistan v KuPS W prediction · Kansallinen Liiga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

IF Gnistan 0–5 KuPS W KUPS W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KuPS W win~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KuPS W win at 73%.
1′Little has changed for our model: KuPS W 73% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 13–15–72
1′KICK-OFF IF Gnistan v KuPS W
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' IF Gnistan
8′We said KuPS W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 4–9–87
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' IF Gnistan 0–1 KuPS W
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' KuPS W win: 73% at kick-off, 87% now
11′8′: aada nurmi on the scoresheet for KuPS W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–9–87
16′We said KuPS W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' IF Gnistan 0–2 KuPS W
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' KuPS W win: 73% at kick-off, 96% now
18′🟨 YELLOW · 15' abby kraemer · IF Gnistan
21′KuPS W ahead on 16′ through Gentjana Rochi. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
39′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–2 · 1–3–97
43′🟨 YELLOW · 40' selja leiwo · KuPS W
45′IF Gnistan are down to ten from 44′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 1–3–97
45′HALF-TIME IF Gnistan 0–2 KuPS W
45′🟥 RED CARD · 44' abby kraemer · IF Gnistan
46′SECOND HALF IF Gnistan 0–2 KuPS W
49′We said KuPS W at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' IF Gnistan 0–3 KuPS W
51′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' IF Gnistan 0–4 KuPS W
52′KuPS W score on 51′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' KuPS W · On: Aino Kröger · Off: Gentjana Rochi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' KuPS W · On: nerea oruetxebarria · Off: elli makipelkola
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' IF Gnistan · On: Hertta laurinkoski · Off: Senni Kemppainen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' IF Gnistan · On: Onerva Martikainen · Off: Aava salmela
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' KuPS W · On: Anni Harmaala · Off: selja leiwo
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' KuPS W · On: P. Ukkonen · Off: Sini Laaksonen
73′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' IF Gnistan 0–5 KuPS W
79′KuPS W ahead on 73′ through noora juusela. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' KuPS W · On: maija anni kauppila · Off: aada nurmi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' IF Gnistan · On: Suvi karkkainen · Off: jasmin leppioja
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' IF Gnistan · On: Sohvi Heikkila · Off: Daniela Tiainen
FTFULL TIME IF Gnistan 0–5 KuPS W
FTIF Gnistan 0–5 KuPS W · KuPS W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KuPS W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: IF Gnistan 13%, draw 15%, KuPS W 73%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on IF Gnistan v KuPS WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

IF Gnistan win13%

Draw15%

KuPS W win73%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundChampionship playoffs · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

IF Gnistan

KuPS W

15Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kups w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make KuPS W a 73% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.7, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · IF Gnistan v KuPS W~~1.01 – 2.69

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 28~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
IF Gnistan win	13%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
KuPS W win	73%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
IF Gnistan or draw	27%	–	–
IF Gnistan clean sheet	7%	–	–
KuPS W clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 8.9%

0123450 2.2 7.3 8.9 7.9 5.4 3.01 3.1 6.2 8.7 7.7 5.2 2.92 3.4 4.5 3.9 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+IF Gnistan down, KuPS W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 697 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.1% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

IF Gnistan at home: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). KuPS W away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for IF Gnistan, 2.69 for KuPS W. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KUP 2–0 IFG · IFG 0–1 KUP · KUP 2–1 IFG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 22 Aug

IF GNISTAN

LLLLLL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 1–3

KUPS W

WWWDLD2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	14	+29	39
2	Åland United W	14	+22	28
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28
4	HPS W	14	+4	24
5	Ilves W	14	+1	22
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	−23	7
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2