HPS W v IF Gnistan prediction · Kansallinen Liiga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

HPS W 4–0 IF Gnistan HPS W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HPS W win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.123

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HPS W win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: HPS W was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–15–14
1′KICK-OFF HPS W v IF Gnistan
21′We published HPS W at 71%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' HPS W 1–0 IF Gnistan
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' HPS W win: 71% at kick-off, 86% now
22′A goal for HPS W on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
29′We published HPS W at 71%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' HPS W 2–0 IF Gnistan
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' HPS W win: 71% at kick-off, 96% now
31′HPS W score on 28′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' HPS W 3–0 IF Gnistan
44′HPS W ahead on 36′ through piipa kamppi. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
45′HALF-TIME HPS W 3–0 IF Gnistan
46′SECOND HALF HPS W 3–0 IF Gnistan
47′We published HPS W at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IF Gnistan · On: Antonia Pohjanoksa · Off: Sohvi Heikkila
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' IF Gnistan · On: Senni Kemppainen · Off: Hertta laurinkoski
65′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 62' HPS W · On: Tinja-Riikka Korpela · Off: venla roine
75′SUBSTITUTION · 62' HPS W · On: marja aino kohtamaki · Off: piipa kamppi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' IF Gnistan · On: Suvi karkkainen · Off: Aava salmela
80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' HPS W · On: olivia kahre · Off: Henni Rinkinen
80′SUBSTITUTION · 73' HPS W · On: matilda kataja · Off: oona jaaskelainen
87′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' IF Gnistan · On: Petra Tarkiainen · Off: Daniela Tiainen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' HPS W · On: Milla punsar · Off: fanni sinivuori
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' HPS W 4–0 IF Gnistan
90′A goal for HPS W on 87′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′PENALTY MISSED · 87' HPS W
FTFULL TIME HPS W 4–0 IF Gnistan
FTHPS W 4–0 IF Gnistan · HPS W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HPS W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HPS W 71%, draw 15%, IF Gnistan 14%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on HPS W v IF GnistanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

HPS W win71%

Draw15%

IF Gnistan win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundChampionship playoffs · matchday 10

VenueOulunkylan tekojaarata

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HPS W

IF Gnistan

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	HPS W	14	+4	24
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hps w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make HPS W a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HPS W v IF Gnistan~~2.63 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 24 v 13~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HPS W win

Published at 68%, 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HPS W win	71%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
IF Gnistan win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
HPS W or draw	86%	–	–
HPS W clean sheet	37%	–	–
IF Gnistan clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.0%

0123450 2.3 3.3 1 7.6 6.5 3.6 2 9.0 8.8 4.6 3 7.8 7.6 3.9 4 5.2 5.0 2.5 5 2.8 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+HPS W down, IF Gnistan across0–5 goals a side shown (94.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 700 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HPS W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). IF Gnistan away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for HPS W, 1.02 for IF Gnistan. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IFG 1–3 HPS · HPS 4–0 IFG · IFG 1–2 HPS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug

HPS W

WWDWWW1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 4–0

IF GNISTAN

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	14	+29	39
2	Åland United W	14	+22	28
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28
4	HPS W	14	+4	24
5	Ilves W	14	+1	22
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	−23	7
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2