Honka W v JyPK W prediction · Kansallinen Liiga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Honka W 3–0 JyPK W HONKA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Honka W win~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.078

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Honka W win at 77%.
9′Little has changed for our model: Honka W 77% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–15–10
30′A goal for Honka W on 31′. 0–0 · 68–21–11
30′A goal for Honka W on 32′. 0–0 · 68–21–11
32′We said Honka W at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Honka W win: 77% at kick-off, 67% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Honka W 1–0 JyPK W
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Honka W win: 77% at kick-off, 89% now
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Honka W win: 77% at kick-off, 89% now
45′Honka W find the net on 47′. 1–0 · 89–9–2
45′HALF-TIME Honka W 1–0 JyPK W
50′We said Honka W at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 47' Honka W 2–0 JyPK W
50′SECOND HALF Honka W 2–0 JyPK W
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Honka W win: 77% at kick-off, 98% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JyPK W · On: nea tenno · Off: Aune Lappalainen
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' JyPK W · On: netta hanhimaki · Off: Ilona auvinen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' JyPK W · On: Melina Vertala · Off: Nea Lehtinen
76′A goal for Honka W on 74′. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We said Honka W at 77% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 74' Honka W 3–0 JyPK W
79′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Honka W · On: Milja Mitjonen · Off: Laura Linnala
86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' JyPK W · On: peppi laitila · Off: aino varjoranta
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Honka W · On: Tessa Tuomela · Off: alisa makela
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Honka W · On: E. Sjoberg Perez · Off: venla talvitie
FTFULL TIME Honka W 3–0 JyPK W
FTHonka W 3–0 JyPK W · Honka W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Honka W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Honka W 77%, draw 13%, JyPK W 10%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Honka W v JyPK WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Honka W win77%

Draw13%

JyPK W win10%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundRelegation Play-Off · matchday 10

VenueTapiolan Urheilupuisto

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Honka W

JyPK W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Honka W	9	+5	17
12	JyPK W	9	−27	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · honka w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

77% The market–

Us77%

We make Honka W a 77% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Honka W v JyPK W~~2.80 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 17 v 1~~7 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Honka W win	77%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
JyPK W win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Honka W or draw	90%	–	–
Honka W clean sheet	44%	–	–
JyPK W clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 2.5 2.9 1 8.2 5.9 2.7 2 10.3 8.3 3.5 3 9.3 7.5 3.2 4 6.6 5.2 2.2 5 3.8 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Honka W down, JyPK W across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 700 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Honka W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). JyPK W away: 1.17 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.80 goals for Honka W, 0.83 for JyPK W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~JYP 0–3 HON · HON 2–2 JYP · JYP 1–2 HON · HON 1–0 JYP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug

HONKA W

LWDLDW1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

JYPK W

LLLLLL1–3 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	23	+36	55
2	Åland United W	23	+29	46
3	KuPS W	23	+19	45
4	HPS W	23	+13	44
5	PK-35 Vantaa W	23	+7	27
6	Ilves W	23	−10	26
7	Honka W	9	+5	17
8	VIFK W	23	−33	17
9	IF Gnistan	23	−32	16
10	HJS Akatemia W	9	−2	15
11	EBK W	9	−5	9
12	JyPK W	9	−27	1