HJK W v Ilves W

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said HJK W win at 78%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: HJK W 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–12–10
3. 2′KICK-OFF HJK W v Ilves W
4. 24′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–1 · 48–24–28
5. 24′Ilves W find the net on 24′. 0–1. 0–1 · 48–24–28
6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' HJK W 0–1 Ilves W
7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 48% now
8. 30′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–25–30
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 0–1 · 44–25–30
10. 38′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–27–34
11. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 38% now
12. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Ilves W
13. 45′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–29–37
14. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Ilves W win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was HJK W win 36%)
15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 33% now
16. 51′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–30–41
17. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 28% now
18. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 28% now
19. 53′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–2 · 10–17–72
20. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' HJK W 0–2 Ilves W
21. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 10% now
22. 55′A goal for Ilves W on 52′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 9–17–74
23. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' HJK W 1–2 Ilves W
24. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 26% now
25. 57′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–31–45 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
26. 62′55′: kiviranta milja on the scoresheet for HJK W, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 20–31–49
27. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 52' HJK W · On: lacee bethea · Off: reetta suomela
28. 63′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–31–50
29. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 18% now
30. 67′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 46–43–11
31. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' HJK W 2–2 Ilves W
32. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 46% now
33. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Ilves W win 53%)
34. 71′HJK W level it on 66′ through Iiris holmstrom. 2–2. 2–2 · 41–49–10
35. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' HJK W · On: Iiris holmstrom · Off: isabella ylatalo
36. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' HJK W · On: amanda rantanen · Off: Alma forsten
37. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 38% now
38. 78′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–3 · 6–24–70
39. 78′5 goals already, more than the 4.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 6–24–70
40. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' HJK W 2–3 Ilves W
41. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' HJK W win: 78% at kick-off, 6% now
42. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Ilves W win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 60%)
43. 80′We said HJK W at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–22–74
44. 81′A goal for Ilves W on 77′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 3–21–76
45. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ilves W · On: Lotta lahteenmaki · Off: anna tarkkanen
46. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Emilia pulkkinen · Ilves W
47. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 76' HJK W
48. 93′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 5–94–1
49. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ilves W · On: Werna Fomenko · Off: Emilia pulkkinen
50. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 83' HJK W · On: ulrika sarelius · Off: Juulia Gronlund
51. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 83' HJK W · On: juulia sarkki · Off: sofia eranka
52. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' HJK W 3–3 Ilves W
53. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Ilves W win 95%)
54. 96′HJK W score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 3–96–1
55. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Ilves W
56. FTFULL TIME HJK W 3–3 Ilves W
57. FTHJK W 3–3 Ilves W · HJK W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.