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EBK W v HJS Akatemia W

EBK W

3–0Full time

HJS Akatemia W

Kansallinen Liiga · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

EBK W 3–0 HJS Akatemia W HJS AKATEMIA W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HJS Akatemia W win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HJS Akatemia W win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: HJS Akatemia W was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 40–19–41
1′KICK-OFF EBK W v HJS Akatemia W
9′EBK W find the net on 9′. 0–0 · 39–21–40
10′We said HJS Akatemia W at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 60–19–21
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' EBK W 1–0 HJS Akatemia W
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' HJS Akatemia W win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' EBK W win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was HJS Akatemia W win 40%)
21′We said HJS Akatemia W at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 61–20–19
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 62–20–17
42′We said HJS Akatemia W at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–21–14
45′We said HJS Akatemia W at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–9–4
45′EBK W score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–4
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' EBK W 2–0 HJS Akatemia W
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' HJS Akatemia W win: 41% at kick-off, 4% now
45′HALF-TIME EBK W 2–0 HJS Akatemia W
46′SECOND HALF EBK W 2–0 HJS Akatemia W
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' EBK W · On: sanni sorsa · Off: Elsa kokko rinta
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' HJS Akatemia W · On: Elina Vilen · Off: Ella leskela
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' EBK W 3–0 HJS Akatemia W
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' HJS Akatemia W win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
64′EBK W find the net on 60′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' HJS Akatemia W · On: Jenna Wettervik · Off: piita kytolaakso
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' HJS Akatemia W · On: Veera Aho · Off: Minea Sateri
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' EBK W · On: Minttu Latomaki · Off: matilda sandbacka
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' EBK W · On: kerttu kiviniemi · Off: Ife Ekemode
71′🟨 YELLOW · 68' EBK W
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' EBK W · Sara attola · EBK W
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Minttu Latomaki · EBK W
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' EBK W
81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' HJS Akatemia W · On: Ruut Isotalo · Off: Helmi-Sofia Palmu
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' EBK W · On: Jenna Tuovinen · Off: ella pitkanen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' HJS Akatemia W · On: Mirella Ollikainen · Off: Kiia Pykalisto
FTFULL TIME EBK W 3–0 HJS Akatemia W
FTEBK W 3–0 HJS Akatemia W · HJS Akatemia W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with HJS Akatemia W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: EBK W 40%, draw 19%, HJS Akatemia W 41%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on EBK W v HJS Akatemia WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

EBK W win40%

Draw19%

HJS Akatemia W win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundRelegation Play-Off · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

EBK W

HJS Akatemia W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

Last match: 17 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	HJS Akatemia W	9	−2	15
11	EBK W	9	−5	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hjs akatemia w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make HJS Akatemia W a 41% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · EBK W v HJS Akatemia W~~1.98 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 15~~11 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HJS Akatemia W win

Published at 37%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EBK W win	40%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
HJS Akatemia W win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
EBK W or draw	59%	–	–
EBK W clean sheet	15%	–	–
HJS Akatemia W clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.1%

0123450 4.6 3.9 2.6 1 4.5 6.9 7.1 4.7 2.4 2 3.8 7.0 6.7 4.5 2.3 3 2.5 4.6 4.4 2.9 4 2.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+EBK W down, HJS Akatemia W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 700 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 110 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

EBK W at home: 2.00 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). HJS Akatemia W away: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for EBK W, 2.02 for HJS Akatemia W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HJS 1–0 EBK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 29 Aug

EBK W

DLDWLL2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–4

HJS AKATEMIA W

WWWLWL3–1 · 1–0 · 4–3 · 0–10 · 4–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	23	+36	55
2	Åland United W	23	+29	46
3	KuPS W	23	+19	45
4	HPS W	23	+13	44
5	PK-35 Vantaa W	23	+7	27
6	Ilves W	23	−10	26
7	Honka W	9	+5	17
8	VIFK W	23	−33	17
9	IF Gnistan	23	−32	16
10	HJS Akatemia W	9	−2	15
11	EBK W	9	−5	9
12	JyPK W	9	−27	1