Åland United W v HJK W prediction · Kansallinen Liiga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Åland United W 3–0 HJK W HJK W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HJK W win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.949

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HJK W win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: HJK W was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 24–19–57
1′KICK-OFF Åland United W v HJK W
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' HJK W win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Åland United W
44′We said HJK W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 23–31–46
45′HALF-TIME Åland United W 0–0 HJK W
46′SECOND HALF Åland United W 0–0 HJK W
48′We said HJK W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 55–27–18
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Åland United W 1–0 HJK W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' HJK W win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Åland United W win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was HJK W win 18%)
50′A goal for Åland United W on 48′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 56–27–17
56′We said HJK W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' HJK W · On: Juulia Gronlund · Off: jenna tivnan
66′We said HJK W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' HJK W win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
69′We said HJK W at 58%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Åland United W 2–0 HJK W
71′Åland United W score on 69′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' HJK W · On: juulia sarkki · Off: Alma forsten
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' HJK W · On: sofia eranka · Off: lacee bethea
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Åland United W · On: Jessica Wade · Off: victoria veber
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Åland United W · On: inka sarjanoja · Off: minttu takanen
79′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Åland United W 3–0 HJK W
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' HJK W · On: anelma lahikainen · Off: reetta suomela
81′Åland United W find the net on 78′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Åland United W · On: Othilia nordberg · Off: jennifer vetter
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Åland United W · On: anna nurmi · Off: silja jaatinen
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Åland United W · On: Cilia Nyvall · Off: Neelia pitko
FTFULL TIME Åland United W 3–0 HJK W
FTÅland United W 3–0 HJK W · HJK W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HJK W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Åland United W 24%, draw 19%, HJK W 58%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Åland United W v HJK WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Åland United W win24%

Draw19%

HJK W win58%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundChampionship playoffs · matchday 9

VenueWiklöf Holding Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Åland United W

HJK W

14Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

Last match: 4 Oct · Kansallinen Liiga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hjk w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make HJK W a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Åland United W v HJK W~~1.35 – 2.22

~~Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 39~~2 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Åland United W win	24%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
HJK W win	58%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Åland United W or draw	42%	–	–
Åland United W clean sheet	11%	–	–
HJK W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 2.4 7.0 7.0 5.2 2.9 1 4.5 7.8 9.1 6.7 3.8 2 2.6 5.6 6.1 4.5 2.5 3 2.6 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Åland United W down, HJK W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 694 Kansallinen Liiga matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Kansallinen Liiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.2% of games this season, across 104 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.90 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Åland United W at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). HJK W away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Åland United W, 2.22 for HJK W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.90

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HJK 2–1 ALA · ALA 2–3 HJK · HJK 3–2 ALA · ALA 2–2 HJK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Kansallinen Liiga this season · since 21 Aug

ÅLAND UNITED W

WLLWLW3–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1

HJK W

DWWWWL3–3 · 2–1 · 5–2 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	HJK W	14	+29	39
2	Åland United W	14	+22	28
3	KuPS W	14	+10	28
4	HPS W	14	+4	24
5	Ilves W	14	+1	22
6	IF Gnistan	14	−11	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa W	14	−23	7
8	VIFK W	14	−32	2