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Vaajakoski v SJK-juniorit

Vaajakoski

0–5Full time

SJK-juniorit

Kakkonen - Lohko C · SAT 10 OCT · Vaajakosken keskuskentta

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Vaajakoski 0–5 SJK-juniorit VAAJAKOSKI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vaajakoski win~~55%

~~The market said~~25%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.296

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vaajakoski win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Vaajakoski v SJK-juniorit
2′Little has changed for our model: Vaajakoski 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–20–26
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Vaajakoski 0–1 SJK-juniorit
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Vaajakoski 0–1 SJK-juniorit · A. C. Achi
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' SJK-juniorit
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Vaajakoski 0–2 SJK-juniorit
22′19′ and it is 0–2: N. Rantasalmi on the scoresheet for SJK-juniorit. 0–2 · 13–16–72
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Vaajakoski win: 55% at kick-off, 13% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' SJK-juniorit win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Vaajakoski win 13%)
37′🟥 RED CARD · 37' Vaajakoski
43′Vaajakoski are down to ten from 37′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 7–13–79
45′SJK-juniorit ahead on 48′ through T. Mustonen. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
45′HALF-TIME Vaajakoski 0–2 SJK-juniorit
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Vaajakoski 0–3 SJK-juniorit · T. Mustonen
49′SECOND HALF Vaajakoski 0–3 SJK-juniorit
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vaajakoski · On: B. Muradi · Off: A. Tuppurainen
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vaajakoski · On: M. Nizo · Off: M. Nykanen
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vaajakoski · On: T. Lahtinen · Off: L. Seilonen
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' SJK-juniorit
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Vaajakoski 0–3 SJK-juniorit
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Vaajakoski 0–4 SJK-juniorit · T. Mustonen
66′J. Nikkila scores for SJK-juniorit on 62′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Vaajakoski win: 55% at kick-off, 0% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SJK-juniorit · On: H. Honkola · Off: I. Kangasniemi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vaajakoski · On: M. Collin · Off: V. Maunuksela
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SJK-juniorit · On: A. Asumus · Off: N. Rantasalmi
84′⚽ GOAL · 6' Vaajakoski 0–4 SJK-juniorit · A. C. Achi
84′🟨 YELLOW · 15' SJK-juniorit
84′⚽ GOAL · 19' Vaajakoski 0–4 SJK-juniorit · N. Rantasalmi
84′🟥 RED CARD · 37' V. Viren · Vaajakoski
84′⚽ GOAL · 48' Vaajakoski 0–4 SJK-juniorit · T. Mustonen
84′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vaajakoski · On: B. Muradi · Off: A. Tuppurainen
84′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vaajakoski · On: M. Nizo · Off: M. Nykanen
84′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Vaajakoski · On: T. Lahtinen · Off: L. Seilonen
84′🟨 YELLOW · 56' I. Kangasniemi · SJK-juniorit
84′⚽ GOAL · 62' Vaajakoski 0–4 SJK-juniorit · J. Nikkila
84′SUBSTITUTION · 71' SJK-juniorit · On: H. Honkola · Off: I. Kangasniemi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vaajakoski · On: M. Kareem · Off: T. Stadig
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vaajakoski · On: M. Collin · Off: V. Maunuksela
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SJK-juniorit · On: A. Asumus · Off: N. Rantasalmi
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Vaajakoski
87′We said Vaajakoski at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Vaajakoski 0–5 SJK-juniorit
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Vaajakoski 0–5 SJK-juniorit · A. C. Achi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' SJK-juniorit
FTFULL TIME Vaajakoski 0–5 SJK-juniorit
FTVaajakoski 0–5 SJK-juniorit · Vaajakoski win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vaajakoski win55%

Draw18%

SJK-juniorit win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Vaajakosken keskuskentta

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vaajakoski

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Toivari

6 A. Tuppurainen

8 L. Seilonen

9 E. Salmi

12 M. Nykanen

3 J. Sarkkinen

14 A. Hamalainen

16 V. Maunuksela

21 M. Lundell

25 V. Viren

30 T. Stadig

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · M. Collin

4 · A. Matilainen

11 · M. Nizo

18 · B. Muradi

22 · M. Kareem

24 · T. Lahtinen

99 · J. Kananen

SJK-juniorit

Formation not confirmed

2 T. Mustonen

3 O. Raiski

5 E. Lehto

7 A. Muchipay

15 E. Salmivuori

19 A. C. Achi

23 T. Tollinen

25 N. Hasselman

27 J. Nikkila

29 N. Rantasalmi

36 I. Kangasniemi

Coach · –

Substitutes

28 · F. Augustus Junqueira Bernardes

32 · L. Huttunen

33 · A. Asumus

37 · L. Harju

40 · J. Matinlauri

44 · E. Lahti

50 · H. Honkola

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vaajakoski

Formation not confirmed

13 S. Toivari

6 A. Tuppurainen

8 L. Seilonen

9 E. Salmi

12 M. Nykanen

3 J. Sarkkinen

14 A. Hamalainen

16 V. Maunuksela

21 M. Lundell

25 V. Viren

30 T. Stadig

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · M. Collin

4 · A. Matilainen

11 · M. Nizo

18 · B. Muradi

22 · M. Kareem

24 · T. Lahtinen

99 · J. Kananen

SJK-juniorit

Formation not confirmed

2 T. Mustonen

3 O. Raiski

5 E. Lehto

7 A. Muchipay

15 E. Salmivuori

19 A. C. Achi

23 T. Tollinen

25 N. Hasselman

27 J. Nikkila

29 N. Rantasalmi

36 I. Kangasniemi

Coach · –

Substitutes

28 · F. Augustus Junqueira Bernardes

32 · L. Huttunen

33 · A. Asumus

37 · L. Harju

40 · J. Matinlauri

44 · E. Lahti

50 · H. Honkola

Our number · vaajakoski winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

55% The market25%

Us55%

~~Market~~25%

We make Vaajakoski a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 30 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vaajakoski win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vaajakoski win	55%	25%	+30
Draw	18%	20%	−1
SJK-juniorit win	27%	56%	−29
Over 2.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Both teams to score	72%	77%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	90%	91%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	57%	65%	−8
Vaajakoski or draw	73%	44%	+29
Vaajakoski clean sheet	20%	–	–
SJK-juniorit clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 3.5 2.5 1 4.8 6.7 5.6 3.1 2 5.2 8.1 6.5 3.5 3 4.1 6.4 5.1 2.8 4 2.5 3.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vaajakoski down, SJK-juniorit across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 665 Kakkonen - Lohko C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Kakkonen - Lohko C matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vaajakoski at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). SJK-juniorit away: 1.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Vaajakoski, 1.63 for SJK-juniorit. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SJK 3–0 VAA · VAA 0–2 SJK

Form · last six in Kakkonen - Lohko C

VAAJAKOSKI

WLWDLW3–2 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 2–0

SJK-JUNIORIT

LLDDLL0–4 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	21	+34	43
2	GBK	21	+11	36
3	JBK	21	+15	35
4	VPS II	21	+11	31
5	Kraft	21	−4	26
6	TP-47	19	−5	26
7	Jaro 2	21	−25	26
8	Vaajakoski	19	−8	24
9	JS Hercules	19	−13	21
10	SJK-juniorit	19	−16	19