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JS Hercules v TP-47

JS Hercules

6–1Full time

TP-47

Kakkonen - Lohko C · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

JS Hercules 6–1 TP-47 JS HERCULES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JS Hercules win~~43%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.507

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.321

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JS Hercules win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF JS Hercules v TP-47
3′Much as we predicted: JS Hercules was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–22–36
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' JS Hercules 1–0 TP-47
23′JS Hercules ahead on 10′ through J. Karsama. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–16
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' JS Hercules win: 43% at kick-off, 65% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' JS Hercules 2–0 TP-47
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' JS Hercules 2–1 TP-47
43′40′ and it is 2–1: TP-47 have scored. 2–1 · 67–21–12
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' JS Hercules 3–1 TP-47
45′HALF-TIME JS Hercules 3–1 TP-47
46′JS Hercules ahead on 44′ through J. Kainu. 3–1. 3–1 · 89–8–3
46′SECOND HALF JS Hercules 3–1 TP-47
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' JS Hercules win: 43% at kick-off, 89% now
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' TP-47 · On: V. Korkala · Off: E. Kulju
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' JS Hercules · On: J. Montell · Off: S. Ukura
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' JS Hercules 4–1 TP-47
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' TP-47 · On: H. Korkeamaki · Off: E. Rauhala
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' TP-47 · On: M. Eskelinen · Off: M. Nurkkala
67′J. Montell scores for JS Hercules on 58′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' JS Hercules win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' JS Hercules · On: J. Kurvinen · Off: J. Karsama
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' JS Hercules · On: S. Tervaoja · Off: S. Thurling
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' JS Hercules 5–1 TP-47
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' JS Hercules · On: A. Siiviko · Off: E. Taavettila
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' TP-47 · On: N. Karvonen · Off: J. Rapo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' JS Hercules · On: A. Siiviko · Off: E. Taavettila
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' JS Hercules · On: S. Lehtosaari · Off: L. Siika-Aho
85′⚽ GOAL · 10' JS Hercules 5–1 TP-47 · J. Karsama
85′⚽ GOAL · 29' JS Hercules 5–1 TP-47 · B. Simsek
85′⚽ GOAL · 40' JS Hercules 5–1 TP-47 · A. Pitkanen
85′⚽ GOAL · 44' JS Hercules 5–1 TP-47 · J. Kainu
85′SUBSTITUTION · 46' TP-47 · On: V. Korkala · Off: E. Kulju
85′SUBSTITUTION · 54' JS Hercules · On: J. Montell · Off: S. Ukura
85′⚽ GOAL · 58' JS Hercules 5–1 TP-47 · J. Montell
85′SUBSTITUTION · 60' TP-47 · On: H. Korkeamaki · Off: E. Rauhala
85′SUBSTITUTION · 60' TP-47 · On: M. Eskelinen · Off: M. Nurkkala
85′SUBSTITUTION · 76' JS Hercules · On: J. Kurvinen · Off: J. Karsama
85′SUBSTITUTION · 76' JS Hercules · On: S. Tervaoja · Off: S. Thurling
85′⚽ GOAL · 80' JS Hercules 5–1 TP-47 · B. Simsek
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' TP-47 · On: J. Alamaki · Off: J. Niskala
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' TP-47 · On: N. Karvonen · Off: J. Rapo
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' JS Hercules · On: A. Siiviko · Off: E. Taavettila
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' JS Hercules · On: S. Lehtosaari · Off: L. Siika-Aho
88′JS Hercules find the net on 90′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' JS Hercules
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' JS Hercules 6–1 TP-47
FTFULL TIME JS Hercules 6–1 TP-47
FTJS Hercules 6–1 TP-47 · JS Hercules win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

JS Hercules win43%

Draw20%

TP-47 win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

JS Hercules

Formation not confirmed

5 N. Haapalainen

11 S. Ukura

13 E. Kotilainen

14 J. Kainu

15 S. Thurling

18 B. Simsek

20 J. Karsama

22 J. Hanhineva

24 A. Jibrin

72 E. Taavettila

98 L. Siika-Aho

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · J. Kurvinen

12 · A. Siiviko

16 · J. Montell

28 · S. Tervaoja

91 · S. Lehtosaari

TP-47

Formation not confirmed

3 V. Mattinen

5 J. Isokangas

9 M. Nurkkala

17 J. Niskala

19 E. Harju

20 A. Barrow

21 E. Toivanen

25 J. Rapo

28 E. Kulju

32 E. Rauhala

99 A. Pitkanen

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · M. Eskelinen

8 · J. Alamaki

10 · V. Korkala

16 · H. Korkeamaki

22 · E. Lantto

47 · N. Karvonen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

JS Hercules

Formation not confirmed

5 N. Haapalainen

11 S. Ukura

13 E. Kotilainen

14 J. Kainu

15 S. Thurling

18 B. Simsek

20 J. Karsama

22 J. Hanhineva

24 A. Jibrin

72 E. Taavettila

98 L. Siika-Aho

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · J. Kurvinen

12 · A. Siiviko

16 · J. Montell

28 · S. Tervaoja

91 · S. Lehtosaari

TP-47

Formation not confirmed

3 V. Mattinen

5 J. Isokangas

9 M. Nurkkala

17 J. Niskala

19 E. Harju

20 A. Barrow

21 E. Toivanen

25 J. Rapo

28 E. Kulju

32 E. Rauhala

99 A. Pitkanen

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · M. Eskelinen

8 · J. Alamaki

10 · V. Korkala

16 · H. Korkeamaki

22 · E. Lantto

47 · N. Karvonen

Our number · js hercules winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

43% The market54%

Us43%

~~Market~~54%

We make JS Hercules a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · js hercules win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JS Hercules win	43%	54%	−11
Draw	20%	22%	−2
TP-47 win	37%	25%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	73%	75%	−2
Both teams to score	71%	72%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	53%	57%	−5
JS Hercules or draw	63%	75%	−13
JS Hercules clean sheet	17%	–	–
TP-47 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.0 4.7 3.8 2.3 1 4.9 7.6 7.1 4.4 2.1 2 4.4 7.7 6.9 4.2 3 2.9 5.1 4.6 2.8 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JS Hercules down, TP-47 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 665 Kakkonen - Lohko C matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Kakkonen - Lohko C matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.2% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 4.62 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JS Hercules at home: 2.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). TP-47 away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for JS Hercules, 1.84 for TP-47. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.62

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~TP 0–1 JSH · JSH 1–2 TP · TP 1–5 JSH · JSH 1–5 TP

Form · last six in Kakkonen - Lohko C

JS HERCULES

WLDLWL1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

TP-47

LLWLWW0–1 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 4–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Huima / Urho	21	+34	43
2	GBK	21	+11	36
3	JBK	21	+15	35
4	VPS II	21	+11	31
5	Kraft	21	−4	26
6	TP-47	19	−5	26
7	Jaro 2	21	−25	26
8	Vaajakoski	19	−8	24
9	JS Hercules	19	−13	21
10	SJK-juniorit	19	−16	19