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GrIFK v NJS

GrIFK

6–1Full time

NJS

Kakkonen - Lohko B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

GrIFK 6–1 NJS GRIFK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GrIFK win~~60%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.235

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.159

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GrIFK win at 60%.
2′KICK-OFF GrIFK v NJS
3′Much as we predicted: GrIFK was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' GrIFK 0–1 NJS
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' GrIFK 1–1 NJS
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' GrIFK 2–1 NJS
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' GrIFK 3–1 NJS
23′V. Auranen scores for GrIFK on 17′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' GrIFK win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
43′We published GrIFK at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME GrIFK 3–1 NJS
49′V. Auranen scores for GrIFK on 18′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–1
49′SECOND HALF GrIFK 3–1 NJS
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' GrIFK · On: L. Martelin · Off: B. Perander
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' GrIFK · On: K. Laaksonen · Off: M. Peci
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' NJS
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' NJS · On: J. Nevala · Off: D. Antwi
71′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' GrIFK 4–1 NJS
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' GrIFK 5–1 NJS
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' NJS
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' A. Twumasi · NJS
88′⚽ GOAL · 6' GrIFK 5–1 NJS · A. Twumasi
88′⚽ GOAL · 13' GrIFK 5–1 NJS · A. Andersson
88′⚽ GOAL · 16' GrIFK 5–1 NJS · A. Aethe
88′⚽ GOAL · 18' GrIFK 5–1 NJS · V. Auranen
88′SUBSTITUTION · 46' GrIFK · On: L. Martelin · Off: B. Perander
88′SUBSTITUTION · 46' GrIFK · On: K. Laaksonen · Off: M. Peci
88′🟨 YELLOW · 64' E. Virnes · NJS
88′SUBSTITUTION · 65' NJS · On: J. Nevala · Off: D. Antwi
88′⚽ GOAL · 74' GrIFK 5–1 NJS · B. Kouyate
88′⚽ GOAL · 80' GrIFK 5–1 NJS · T. Deen
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' GrIFK · On: J. Bergman · Off: J. Leivo
88′🟨 YELLOW · 84' A. Twumasi · NJS
90′A goal for GrIFK on 90′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' GrIFK
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' GrIFK win: 60% at kick-off, 100% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' GrIFK 6–1 NJS
FTFULL TIME GrIFK 6–1 NJS
FTGrIFK 6–1 NJS · GrIFK win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

GrIFK win60%

Draw21%

NJS win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

GrIFK

Formation not confirmed

3 V. Makela

4 A. Andersson

5 T. Karkkainen

7 T. Deen

11 A. Aethe

12 E. Avellan

14 M. Peci

21 J. Leivo

24 V. Auranen

25 B. Perander

28 T. Pekkala

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · V. Vahaketo

15 · R. Maki

18 · K. Laaksonen

19 · L. Martelin

20 · B. Kouyate

26 · J. Bergman

27 · J. Joensuu

NJS

Formation not confirmed

2 E. Virnes

9 T. Lehtimaki

12 V. Vaananen

14 T. Gronthal

15 P. Pihlajamaki

19 M. Vilmi

21 Z. Abdallah

26 D. Antwi

32 A. Twumasi

33 D. Backstrom

35 M. Kurvinen

Coach · Teemu Savukoski

Substitutes

3 · J. Nevala

8 · F. Haziri

22 · K. Korhonen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

GrIFK

Formation not confirmed

3 V. Makela

4 A. Andersson

5 T. Karkkainen

7 T. Deen

11 A. Aethe

12 E. Avellan

14 M. Peci

21 J. Leivo

24 V. Auranen

25 B. Perander

28 T. Pekkala

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · V. Vahaketo

15 · R. Maki

18 · K. Laaksonen

19 · L. Martelin

20 · B. Kouyate

26 · J. Bergman

27 · J. Joensuu

NJS

Formation not confirmed

2 E. Virnes

9 T. Lehtimaki

12 V. Vaananen

14 T. Gronthal

15 P. Pihlajamaki

19 M. Vilmi

21 Z. Abdallah

26 D. Antwi

32 A. Twumasi

33 D. Backstrom

35 M. Kurvinen

Coach · Teemu Savukoski

Substitutes

3 · J. Nevala

8 · F. Haziri

22 · K. Korhonen

Our number · grifk winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

60% The market67%

Us60%

~~Market~~67%

We make GrIFK a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · grifk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GrIFK win	60%	67%	−7
Draw	21%	18%	+3
NJS win	19%	14%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	62%	76%	−13
Both teams to score	58%	67%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	83%	89%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	41%	58%	−17
GrIFK or draw	81%	86%	−5
GrIFK clean sheet	34%	–	–
NJS clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.4 4.3 2.5 1 8.4 9.3 5.0 2 8.9 9.5 5.2 3 6.3 6.7 3.7 4 3.4 3.7 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GrIFK down, NJS across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 735 Kakkonen - Lohko B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Kakkonen - Lohko B matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GrIFK at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). NJS away: 0.50 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for GrIFK, 1.10 for NJS. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NJS 2–1 GRI · GRI 2–0 NJS · NJS 0–1 GRI

Form · last six in Kakkonen - Lohko B

GRIFK

WDLDDL3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–5

NJS

LWWLLW1–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Honka	23	+45	53
2	ÅIFK	23	+19	46
3	Ilves II	23	+32	42
4	EPS	23	+11	36
5	P-Iirot	23	+1	34
6	HJS Akatemia	23	−4	34
7	GrIFK	23	−12	27
8	EBK	23	−15	21
9	Musa	23	−36	20
10	NJS	23	−41	10