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EBK v Musa

EBK

0–1Full time

Musa

Kakkonen - Lohko B · SAT 10 OCT · Keski-Espoon urheilukeskus

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

EBK 0–1 Musa EBK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said EBK win~~56%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.916

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.870

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said EBK win at 56%.
3′KICK-OFF EBK v Musa
4′Little has changed for our model: EBK 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–19–25
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' EBK 0–1 Musa
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' EBK
24′Musa ahead on 13′ through O. Majaluoma. 0–1. 0–1 · 29–23–48
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' EBK win: 56% at kick-off, 29% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Musa win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was EBK win 29%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' EBK
44′We said EBK at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–25–53
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' EBK win: 56% at kick-off, 22% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Musa · On: L. Weckstrom · Off: E. Loytokorpi
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' EBK
45′HALF-TIME EBK 0–1 Musa
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' EBK · On: L. Wennervirta · Off: C. Frankenhaeuser
47′SECOND HALF EBK 0–1 Musa
69′We said EBK at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–67
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' EBK win: 56% at kick-off, 9% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' EBK · On: A. Ekonen · Off: M. Hakkinen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Musa · On: M. Heinila · Off: O. Majaluoma
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Musa
86′⚽ GOAL · 13' EBK 0–1 Musa · O. Majaluoma
86′🟨 YELLOW · 18' S. Sato · EBK
86′🟨 YELLOW · 37' P. Jaasvuo · EBK
86′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Musa · On: L. Weckstrom · Off: E. Loytokorpi
86′🟨 YELLOW · 47' E. Halimi · EBK
86′SUBSTITUTION · 46' EBK · On: L. Wennervirta · Off: C. Frankenhaeuser
86′SUBSTITUTION · 69' EBK · On: A. Ekonen · Off: M. Hakkinen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Musa · On: M. Heinila · Off: O. Majaluoma
86′🟨 YELLOW · 77' A. Holappa · Musa
89′We said EBK at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' EBK win: 56% at kick-off, 0% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' EBK
FTFULL TIME EBK 0–1 Musa
FTEBK 0–1 Musa · EBK win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

EBK win56%

Draw19%

Musa win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Keski-Espoon urheilukeskus

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

EBK

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Koirikivi

2 C. Frankenhaeuser

6 O. Hietanen

8 E. Halimi

13 K. Koskela

16 K. Heikkinen

30 M. Hakkinen

32 P. Jaasvuo

35 S. Sato

67 Z. Vettenranta

99 R. Sipi

Coach · Xhevdet Gela

Substitutes

20 · J. Oksanen

21 · L. Wennervirta

29 · A. D. Lie

58 · T. Jarvenpaa

66 · A. Ekonen

73 · L. Pyylampi

96 · M. Kivela

Musa

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Simula

3 E. Loytokorpi

4 Y. Bakhmutchenko

8 E. Simeon

9 S. Tahka

10 R. Jokinen

14 A. Holappa

22 C. Abdou

26 O. Auranen

30 M. Tahkanen

40 O. Majaluoma

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · K. Nordman

19 · L. Weckstrom

20 · J. Toivanen

21 · M. Heinila

45 · V. Aloziem

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

EBK

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Koirikivi

2 C. Frankenhaeuser

6 O. Hietanen

8 E. Halimi

13 K. Koskela

16 K. Heikkinen

30 M. Hakkinen

32 P. Jaasvuo

35 S. Sato

67 Z. Vettenranta

99 R. Sipi

Coach · Xhevdet Gela

Substitutes

20 · J. Oksanen

21 · L. Wennervirta

29 · A. D. Lie

58 · T. Jarvenpaa

66 · A. Ekonen

73 · L. Pyylampi

96 · M. Kivela

Musa

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Simula

3 E. Loytokorpi

4 Y. Bakhmutchenko

8 E. Simeon

9 S. Tahka

10 R. Jokinen

14 A. Holappa

22 C. Abdou

26 O. Auranen

30 M. Tahkanen

40 O. Majaluoma

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · K. Nordman

19 · L. Weckstrom

20 · J. Toivanen

21 · M. Heinila

45 · V. Aloziem

Our number · ebk winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

56% The market54%

Us56%

~~Market~~54%

We make EBK a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ebk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EBK win	56%	54%	+3
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Musa win	25%	26%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Both teams to score	73%	71%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	59%	54%	+5
EBK or draw	75%	74%	+1
EBK clean sheet	20%	–	–
Musa clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%

0123450 2.6 2.2 1 4.0 6.7 5.3 2.9 2 5.0 7.9 6.4 3.5 3 4.2 6.5 5.3 2.9 4 2.6 4.1 3.3 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+EBK down, Musa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 735 Kakkonen - Lohko B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Kakkonen - Lohko B matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 115 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

EBK at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Musa away: 0.83 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.51 goals for EBK, 1.64 for Musa. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MUS 1–1 EBK · MUS 0–4 EBK · EBK 0–2 MUS

Form · last six in Kakkonen - Lohko B

EBK

LDDWDL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–3

MUSA

WLDDWW2–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Honka	23	+45	53
2	ÅIFK	23	+19	46
3	Ilves II	23	+32	42
4	EPS	23	+11	36
5	P-Iirot	23	+1	34
6	HJS Akatemia	23	−4	34
7	GrIFK	23	−12	27
8	EBK	23	−15	21
9	Musa	23	−36	20
10	NJS	23	−41	10