Vikingur Gota v AB prediction · Meistaradeildin

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Vikingur Gota 2–0 AB VIKINGUR GOTA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Vikingur Gota win~~66%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.175

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.186

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vikingur Gota win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Vikingur Gota 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–14
1′KICK-OFF Vikingur Gota v AB
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Vikingur Gota win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
39′We said Vikingur Gota at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–30–15
45′HALF-TIME Vikingur Gota 0–0 AB
45′🟨 YELLOW · 39' J. Olavsson · Vikingur Gota
46′SECOND HALF Vikingur Gota 0–0 AB
49′We said Vikingur Gota at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' AB
51′Vikingur Gota find the net on 50′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
51′We said Vikingur Gota at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Vikingur Gota 1–0 AB
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Vikingur Gota win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
56′R. Hansen scores for Vikingur Gota on 55′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
56′We said Vikingur Gota at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
56′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Vikingur Gota 2–0 AB · R. Hansen
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Vikingur Gota win: 66% at kick-off, 98% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' AB · On: J. Bruhn · Off: J. Steingrimsson
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' AB · On: R. Skala · Off: B. Nielsen
79′We said Vikingur Gota at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' AB
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vikingur Gota · On: J. Jarnskor · Off: R. Toyt
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' AB
FTFULL TIME Vikingur Gota 2–0 AB
FTVikingur Gota 2–0 AB · Vikingur Gota win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vikingur Gota are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vikingur Gota 66%, draw 20%, AB 14%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Vikingur Gota v ABBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vikingur Gota win66%

Draw20%

AB win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 25

Line-ups

Vikingur Gota

AB

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vikingur Gota

AB

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Meistaradeildin

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Vikingur Gota	24	+8	38
7	AB	24	−12	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vikingur Gota

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Reynatrod

6 A. Brandsson

7 J. Johansen

9 J. Nielsen

10 S. Vatnhamar

14 I. Jonhardsson

16 R. Toyt

18 A. Svensson

24 J. Olavsson

27 R. Hansen

29 I. Arngrimsson

Coach · Johan Poulsen

Substitutes

23 · N. Thomsen

5 · J. Vilhelmsen

12 · D. a. Lidarenda

19 · J. Jarnskor

20 · M. Hojgaard

26 · F. Jarnskor

77 · K. L. Bartalsstovu

AB

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Sorensen

4 D. Danielsen

7 B. Nielsen

8 M. Friis

9 L. Thorstensen

18 P. Sjostein

20 S. Henriksen

21 J. Abdul

23 J. Steingrimsson

27 S. Rasmussen

30 O. Moses

Coach · Ossur Hansen

Substitutes

16 · T. Skala

5 · G. Reynslag

10 · R. Skala

14 · J. Bruhn

26 · B. E. Danielsen

28 · O. Isfeld

Our number · vikingur gota winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market65%

Us66%

~~Market~~65%

We make Vikingur Gota a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vikingur Gota v AB~~2.21 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 38 v 24~~4 v 7

~~The market · Vikingur Gota win~~65% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vikingur Gota win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vikingur Gota win	66%	65%	+1
Draw	20%	20%	0
AB win	14%	15%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Vikingur Gota or draw	86%	85%	+1
Vikingur Gota clean sheet	41%	–	–
AB clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 3.7 1 9.5 9.2 4.1 2 10.7 9.5 4.4 3 7.9 7.0 3.2 4 4.4 3.9 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Vikingur Gota down, AB across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 795 Meistaradeildin matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistaradeildin matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vikingur Gota at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). AB away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Vikingur Gota, 0.91 for AB. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AB 2–3 VIK · VIK 5–1 AB · VIK 4–0 AB · VIK 0–0 AB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 16 Aug

VIKINGUR GOTA

LDLDDW1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–1

AB

LLLDLL3–4 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NSI Runavik	24	+22	51
2	KI Klaksvik	24	+27	48
3	HB Torshavn	24	+13	41
4	Vikingur Gota	24	+8	38
5	B36 Torshavn	24	+6	38
6	EB / Streymur	24	−11	26
7	AB	24	−12	24
8	Skála	24	−13	23
9	07 Vestur	24	−17	22
10	B68	24	−23	17