Skála v NSI Runavik prediction · Meistaradeildin

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Skála 1–2 NSI Runavik NSI RUNAVIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said NSI Runavik win~~64%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.198

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.227

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NSI Runavik win at 64%.
4′Little has changed for our model: NSI Runavik 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 17–19–64
7′Little has changed for our model: NSI Runavik 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 17–20–63
38′Skála ahead on 27′ through M. Nielsen. 1–0. 1–0 · 46–27–26
39′Skála ahead on 27′ through M. Nielsen. 1–0. 1–0 · 46–28–26
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' NSI Runavik win: 64% at kick-off, 59% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' NSI Runavik win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Skála win 18%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' NSI Runavik win: 64% at kick-off, 26% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Skála win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was NSI Runavik win 26%)
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Skála 1–1 NSI Runavik
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Skála 1–2 NSI Runavik
45′HALF-TIME Skála 1–2 NSI Runavik
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' NSI Runavik win: 64% at kick-off, 26% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Skála win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was NSI Runavik win 26%)
46′SECOND HALF Skála 1–2 NSI Runavik
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' NSI Runavik · On: K. Olsen · Off: M. Olsen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Skála · On: A. Jacobsen · Off: J. Frederiksberg
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Skála · On: S. Larsen · Off: T. Poulsen
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' NSI Runavik · On: A. Knudsen · Off: M. Lindh
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Skála · On: R. Olsen · Off: M. Nielsen
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NSI Runavik · On: T. Hestad · Off: M. Przybylski
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' NSI Runavik
FTFULL TIME Skála 1–2 NSI Runavik
FTSkála 1–2 NSI Runavik · NSI Runavik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Skála win17%

Draw19%

NSI Runavik win64%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

RefereeH. Vidoy

Line-ups

Skála

NSI Runavik

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Skála

NSI Runavik

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NSI Runavik	23	+21	48
8	Skála	23	−12	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Skála

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Arngrimsson

3 M. Hellisdal

8 D. Petersen

12 K. Johansen

14 S. Olavsson Gaard

17 J. Frederiksberg

18 M. Nielsen

26 T. Poulsen

27 S. Slettegaard

28 M. Effiom

29 M. Mortensen

Coach · Pauli Poulsen

Substitutes

91 · O. Mikkelsen

2 · R. Olsen

7 · K. M. Jakobsen

16 · J. Joensen

19 · A. Jacobsen

21 · B. S. Hojgaard

25 · S. Larsen

NSI Runavik

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Amos

3 V. Davidsen

4 D. Obbekjaer

6 B. Nolsoe

11 M. Lindh

12 F. Drinic

16 P. Knudsen

17 J. Benjaminsen

29 E. W. Joensen

33 M. Przybylski

45 M. Olsen

Coach · Sigurdur Eyjolfsson

Substitutes

1 · K. Joensen

7 · A. Knudsen

9 · T. Hestad

10 · K. Olsen

22 · J. Trondargjogv

24 · B. Hansen

28 · M. Danielsen

Our number · nsi runavik winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

64% The market61%

Us64%

~~Market~~61%

We make NSI Runavik a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nsi runavik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skála win	17%	18%	−1
Draw	19%	21%	−2
NSI Runavik win	64%	61%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	64%	+4
Both teams to score	61%	60%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Skála or draw	36%	39%	−3
Skála clean sheet	10%	–	–
NSI Runavik clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%

0123450 3.6 7.0 8.4 6.6 3.9 1 3.2 8.5 9.3 7.2 4.3 2.12 2.1 4.6 5.3 4.1 2.4 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skála down, NSI Runavik across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 791 Meistaradeildin matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistaradeildin matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.38 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skála at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). NSI Runavik away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Skála, 2.36 for NSI Runavik. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NSI 4–0 SKA · SKA 3–3 NSI · SKA 0–0 NSI · NSI 3–0 SKA

Form · last six in Meistaradeildin

SKÁLA

LWWDDD0–4 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2

NSI RUNAVIK

WWDWDW4–0 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NSI Runavik	23	+21	48
2	KI Klaksvik	23	+24	45
3	HB Torshavn	23	+16	41
4	Vikingur Gota	23	+7	35
5	B36 Torshavn	23	+5	35
6	EB / Streymur	24	−11	26
7	AB	23	−11	24
8	Skála	23	−12	23
9	07 Vestur	24	−17	22
10	B68	23	−22	17