Skála v AB prediction · Meistaradeildin

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SkálaDrawAB

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Skála 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skála are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skála 41%, draw 25%, AB 35%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Skála v ABBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Skála win41%

Draw25%

AB win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 26

RefereeD. Forna

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skála

AB

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Meistaradeildin

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Skála	25	−13	24
8	AB	25	−14	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skála winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Skála a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skála v AB~~1.54 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 24 v 24~~7 v 8

~~The market · Skála win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skála win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skála win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
AB win	35%	29%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Skála or draw	65%	71%	−6
Skála clean sheet	25%	–	–
AB clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.7 7.4 5.2 2.5 1 8.1 11.3 7.8 3.7 2 6.3 8.6 5.9 2.8 3 3.3 4.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skála down, AB across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 800 Meistaradeildin matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistaradeildin matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skála at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). AB away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Skála, 1.40 for AB. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AB 3–2 SKA · SKA 1–0 AB · SKA 0–0 AB · AB 0–1 SKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 23 Aug

SKÁLA

WDDDLD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–3

AB

LLDLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NSI Runavik	25	+23	54
2	KI Klaksvik	25	+26	48
3	HB Torshavn	25	+14	44
4	Vikingur Gota	25	+10	41
5	B36 Torshavn	25	+6	39
6	EB / Streymur	25	−12	26
7	Skála	25	−13	24
8	AB	25	−14	24
9	07 Vestur	25	−18	22
10	B68	25	−22	20