NSI Runavik v HB Torshavn prediction · Meistaradeildin

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NSI RunavikDrawHB Torshavn

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · NSI Runavik 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NSI Runavik are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NSI Runavik 42%, draw 22%, HB Torshavn 36%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on NSI Runavik v HB TorshavnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

NSI Runavik win42%

Draw22%

HB Torshavn win36%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 26

RefereeR. Gaardbo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NSI Runavik

HB Torshavn

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Meistaradeildin

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nsi runavik winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market53%

Us42%

~~Market~~53%

We make NSI Runavik a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NSI Runavik v HB Torshavn~~1.84 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 54 v 44~~1 v 3

~~The market · NSI Runavik win~~53% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NSI Runavik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NSI Runavik win	42%	53%	−11
Draw	22%	23%	−1
HB Torshavn win	36%	24%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	68%	62%	+6
Both teams to score	68%	62%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	47%	41%	+6
NSI Runavik or draw	64%	76%	−12
NSI Runavik clean sheet	19%	–	–
HB Torshavn clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.2 5.0 4.2 2.4 1 5.4 9.2 7.6 4.3 2 5.0 8.3 6.9 3.9 3 3.1 5.1 4.2 2.4 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NSI Runavik down, HB Torshavn across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 800 Meistaradeildin matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistaradeildin matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NSI Runavik at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). HB Torshavn away: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for NSI Runavik, 1.68 for HB Torshavn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HBT 3–1 NSI · NSI 2–1 HBT · HBT 3–0 NSI · NSI 1–4 HBT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 23 Aug

NSI RUNAVIK

DWDWWW2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

HB TORSHAVN

DWDWLW0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NSI Runavik	25	+23	54
2	KI Klaksvik	25	+26	48
3	HB Torshavn	25	+14	44
4	Vikingur Gota	25	+10	41
5	B36 Torshavn	25	+6	39
6	EB / Streymur	25	−12	26
7	Skála	25	−13	24
8	AB	25	−14	24
9	07 Vestur	25	−18	22
10	B68	25	−22	20