EB / Streymur v HB Torshavn prediction · Meistaradeildin

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

EB / Streymur 0–1 HB Torshavn HB TORSHAVN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HB Torshavn win~~63%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.208

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.202

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HB Torshavn win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: HB Torshavn was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 17–20–63
1′KICK-OFF EB / Streymur v HB Torshavn
19′HB Torshavn score on 19′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–12–82
19′We published HB Torshavn at 63%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' EB / Streymur 0–1 HB Torshavn
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' HB Torshavn win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 5–13–82
45′HALF-TIME EB / Streymur 0–1 HB Torshavn
46′SECOND HALF EB / Streymur 0–1 HB Torshavn
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' HB Torshavn win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
63′We published HB Torshavn at 63%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' HB Torshavn · On: E. Mouritsen · Off: S. Radosavljevic
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' HB Torshavn · On: J. Thomsen · Off: M. Ebiye
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' EB / Streymur · On: T. Miezan · Off: H. Bo
78′We published HB Torshavn at 63%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' HB Torshavn win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' HB Torshavn · On: S. B. Pettersen · Off: M. Voss
85′We published HB Torshavn at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' EB / Streymur · On: F. Holm · Off: B. L. Sowe
FTFULL TIME EB / Streymur 0–1 HB Torshavn
FTEB / Streymur 0–1 HB Torshavn · HB Torshavn win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HB Torshavn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: EB / Streymur 17%, draw 20%, HB Torshavn 63%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on EB / Streymur v HB TorshavnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

EB / Streymur win17%

Draw20%

HB Torshavn win63%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 25

Line-ups

EB / Streymur

HB Torshavn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

EB / Streymur

HB Torshavn

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Meistaradeildin

Last match: 11 Oct · Meistaradeildin

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	HB Torshavn	24	+13	41
6	EB / Streymur	24	−11	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

EB / Streymur

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Davidsen

2 M. Geyti

5 M. Hellisa

7 B. Egilsson

10 G. Dam

11 K. Eliasen

18 M. Nielsen

20 V. Jonsson

21 H. Bo

27 B. L. Sowe

29 L. Norby

Coach · Sigfridur Clementsen

Substitutes

16 · F. Kruse

4 · R. Egilstoft

6 · A. Joensen

17 · F. Holm

19 · T. Miezan

26 · A. Olsen

28 · M. Jonsson

HB Torshavn

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Sjurdarson

11 A. Dam

3 P. Steiring

6 A. Johannesen

22 A. Jonsson

28 A. Diop

18 S. Radosavljevic

8 D. Soylu

7 M. Voss

9 H. Sorensen

20 M. Ebiye

Coach · Andre Olsen

Substitutes

12 · T. Gestsson

25 · S. B. Pettersen

30 · J. Lon

23 · J. Thomsen

21 · E. Mouritsen

27 · J. Skala

24 · S. Joensen

Our number · hb torshavn winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market63%

Us63%

~~Market~~63%

We make HB Torshavn a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · EB / Streymur v HB Torshavn~~1.06 – 2.21

~~Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 41~~6 v 3

~~The market · HB Torshavn win~~63% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HB Torshavn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EB / Streymur win	17%	16%	+1
Draw	20%	21%	−1
HB Torshavn win	63%	63%	0
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
EB / Streymur or draw	37%	37%	0
EB / Streymur clean sheet	11%	–	–
HB Torshavn clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.6%

0123450 4.4 8.2 9.3 6.8 3.8 1 3.7 9.2 9.6 7.0 3.9 2 2.2 4.7 5.1 3.7 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+EB / Streymur down, HB Torshavn across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 795 Meistaradeildin matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistaradeildin matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

EB / Streymur at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). HB Torshavn away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for EB / Streymur, 2.21 for HB Torshavn. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HBT 3–4 EBS · EBS 1–2 HBT · EBS 0–4 HBT · HBT 2–1 EBS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistaradeildin this season · since 16 Aug

EB / STREYMUR

LWLWWL2–4 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–3

HB TORSHAVN

WDWDWL2–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NSI Runavik	24	+22	51
2	KI Klaksvik	24	+27	48
3	HB Torshavn	24	+13	41
4	Vikingur Gota	24	+8	38
5	B36 Torshavn	24	+6	38
6	EB / Streymur	24	−11	26
7	AB	24	−12	24
8	Skála	24	−13	23
9	07 Vestur	24	−17	22
10	B68	24	−23	17